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With the addition of Means vs Wells it looks like this card is complete, creating this early as I'm guessing a few people are a head on tape with the break
UFC Fight Night - Strickland vs Hermansson - Official discussion
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I like this card, well matched over all but it does appear to be a bit of a juice card. I think a lot of the favourites roll, Shavkat, Erosa, Bondar, Strickland and Almedia.
Dowodu/Trizano has potential to be close, don't mind Chidi and Castenda either
Dowodu/Trizano has potential to be close, don't mind Chidi and Castenda either
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No lines for the Davis fight any where for some reason, assume she will be a pretty big favourite
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Witt/Rowe
Witt - Great timing on his takedoen entries, ducks under punches for doubles and singles, also has good trips and bodylock takedowns against the cage. Looks for half guard on top and keeps very tight, throws punches and elbows over the top, but focuses on keeping control. Poor striking, has some power but most of what he throws are big sweeping hooks, from the hip almost, poor kicks looks very tight in the hips/lower back and he's open defensively with a poor chin. He doesn't keep his hands high and they drop more as the fight goes on and his right hand becomes more and more predictable as he gets tired - Opponents must completely break the wrestling/grappling exchanges, Witt will hold onto anything he gets hold of and can convert it into a takedown, even when tired - Wide/Squat stance, open to a quick kicker, body and lead leg, also seems a little slow reactivatievly, doesn't have great hand speed.
Rowe - Can explode with fast powerful flurries, has good combinations of punches, hits the body and head and mixes in kicks too. Uses his length well sticks out a stiff straight jab at times but can generate some of that 'ball and chain' type power when he starts swinging. Shows good gas through 3 hard rounds grappling/wrestling/striking, but just seems to get in his own way at times. He is too happy to accept the clinch, too happy to back up to the cage and too happy to let his opponent dictate the fight. He will even find opportunity to come forward, put some pressure on and start landing and then just decide to back away and put himself back onto the back foot. Kicks the body and legs well, uses the front kick too, but his striking can often get blanketed because he doesn't do a good job of maintaining the distance or using his foot work. Gets loose in exchanges at times and gets hit hard, frustrating fighter to watch as the potential is there but he's in his own way more than anything else - Definitely vulnerable to low kicks, any opponent he faces who doesn't come ready to low kick a lot is poorly prepared.
Rowe obviously has more potential long term and is generally more dangerous, but there is always a possibility he will just give Witt the fight he wants and accept being pushed to the cage over and over and taken down, and I feel Witt will have more success securing takedowns and top time if he's given the chance than Rowe's previous opponents
Ultimately favour Rowe to get a TKO round 2/3, will look at playing Rowe KO or Rowe 2/3/Rowe KO 2/3 pre fight and look for a live bet on Rowe after the first round which I think will be Witt's best before he slows. No value on Rowe ML and Witt is too untrustworthy to play unless he reaches +200 or better.
Witt - Great timing on his takedoen entries, ducks under punches for doubles and singles, also has good trips and bodylock takedowns against the cage. Looks for half guard on top and keeps very tight, throws punches and elbows over the top, but focuses on keeping control. Poor striking, has some power but most of what he throws are big sweeping hooks, from the hip almost, poor kicks looks very tight in the hips/lower back and he's open defensively with a poor chin. He doesn't keep his hands high and they drop more as the fight goes on and his right hand becomes more and more predictable as he gets tired - Opponents must completely break the wrestling/grappling exchanges, Witt will hold onto anything he gets hold of and can convert it into a takedown, even when tired - Wide/Squat stance, open to a quick kicker, body and lead leg, also seems a little slow reactivatievly, doesn't have great hand speed.
Rowe - Can explode with fast powerful flurries, has good combinations of punches, hits the body and head and mixes in kicks too. Uses his length well sticks out a stiff straight jab at times but can generate some of that 'ball and chain' type power when he starts swinging. Shows good gas through 3 hard rounds grappling/wrestling/striking, but just seems to get in his own way at times. He is too happy to accept the clinch, too happy to back up to the cage and too happy to let his opponent dictate the fight. He will even find opportunity to come forward, put some pressure on and start landing and then just decide to back away and put himself back onto the back foot. Kicks the body and legs well, uses the front kick too, but his striking can often get blanketed because he doesn't do a good job of maintaining the distance or using his foot work. Gets loose in exchanges at times and gets hit hard, frustrating fighter to watch as the potential is there but he's in his own way more than anything else - Definitely vulnerable to low kicks, any opponent he faces who doesn't come ready to low kick a lot is poorly prepared.
Rowe obviously has more potential long term and is generally more dangerous, but there is always a possibility he will just give Witt the fight he wants and accept being pushed to the cage over and over and taken down, and I feel Witt will have more success securing takedowns and top time if he's given the chance than Rowe's previous opponents
Ultimately favour Rowe to get a TKO round 2/3, will look at playing Rowe KO or Rowe 2/3/Rowe KO 2/3 pre fight and look for a live bet on Rowe after the first round which I think will be Witt's best before he slows. No value on Rowe ML and Witt is too untrustworthy to play unless he reaches +200 or better.
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They're doing Carlston real dirty matching him up with Shavkat, damn
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Carlston gonna get wrecked take it to the bank, Shavkat is for real!
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I'd stick with Rowe by KO, feel like this fight will be a carbon copy of Witt's meetings with Semenburger and Sato. Probably gets folded in the first minute given how glacial he is
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Rowe doesn’t have big power like sato and semi. Seems like a good spot for witt to me. Witt is always supposed to get folded. No reason why he can’t take Rowe down repeatedly
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Castenada/John's
Castenda - Capable everywhere but doesn't stand out any where, can keep a good pace, has gas for 3 hard rounds, mostly a boxer but does use his kicks well - to the legs especially. Natural South paw. He is open to straight right hands down the centre and a little too willing to accept the back foot he can be walked to the cage at will.
Seems to be be missing a next gear, he's not the most physical guy, not the fastest, not the the most powerful or dangerous, but then doesn't make up for it with a crazy out put or relentless pressure, he's in first gear and seems reluctant to shift it up, but he is tough and scrappy and seems durable. His boxing style reminds me a little of Brandon Moreno, just without the craziness. A better than okay fighter.
Johns - All the athletic upside - Compact, explosive, powerful and strong. He's a little foot slow generally but can leap into things - Reminds me of Yoel, physical beast, can explode at any moment but doesn't do a lot in-between the explosions - Good defensive shell, hard to get in on and hard to land on clean. He times his strikes well, almost always it's a straight/lunging left or right, that does have some force behind it, snaps heads back. He also has power hooks to follow up but is cardio aware so makes sure not to let loose too much too often as he will gas. Does have some wrestling but generally stalls on his shots at the cage and doesn't really force the exchange, again as he will gas. Coiled spring, good timing.
Line is wide, Johns likely sticks out 3 rounds just landing the bigger strikes, the more head snapping strikes. I think Castenada would have to commit to lots of body shots, low kicks, front kicks ect and chip away, make Johns work at a pace he doesn't like and ware him down. It's a viable path but will be difficult to pull off as Johns could still KO him at any time.
Don't hate the GTD, potential for a low volume staring contest. Over 1.5 is good if the price is right. A pop on Castenada isn't a bad play, Castenada decision, Castenada round 3/decision.
No value on Johns ML.
Castenda - Capable everywhere but doesn't stand out any where, can keep a good pace, has gas for 3 hard rounds, mostly a boxer but does use his kicks well - to the legs especially. Natural South paw. He is open to straight right hands down the centre and a little too willing to accept the back foot he can be walked to the cage at will.
Seems to be be missing a next gear, he's not the most physical guy, not the fastest, not the the most powerful or dangerous, but then doesn't make up for it with a crazy out put or relentless pressure, he's in first gear and seems reluctant to shift it up, but he is tough and scrappy and seems durable. His boxing style reminds me a little of Brandon Moreno, just without the craziness. A better than okay fighter.
Johns - All the athletic upside - Compact, explosive, powerful and strong. He's a little foot slow generally but can leap into things - Reminds me of Yoel, physical beast, can explode at any moment but doesn't do a lot in-between the explosions - Good defensive shell, hard to get in on and hard to land on clean. He times his strikes well, almost always it's a straight/lunging left or right, that does have some force behind it, snaps heads back. He also has power hooks to follow up but is cardio aware so makes sure not to let loose too much too often as he will gas. Does have some wrestling but generally stalls on his shots at the cage and doesn't really force the exchange, again as he will gas. Coiled spring, good timing.
Line is wide, Johns likely sticks out 3 rounds just landing the bigger strikes, the more head snapping strikes. I think Castenada would have to commit to lots of body shots, low kicks, front kicks ect and chip away, make Johns work at a pace he doesn't like and ware him down. It's a viable path but will be difficult to pull off as Johns could still KO him at any time.
Don't hate the GTD, potential for a low volume staring contest. Over 1.5 is good if the price is right. A pop on Castenada isn't a bad play, Castenada decision, Castenada round 3/decision.
No value on Johns ML.
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Winner favourites I'm confident in -Strickland
Shavkat
Erosa
Bondar
Almeida
Gore
Davis
Favourite's I expect to win but have less faith in -
Dawado
Rowe
Hawes
Dogs I think have value -
Maximov
Njokuani
Castenada
Shavkat
Erosa
Bondar
Almeida
Gore
Davis
Favourite's I expect to win but have less faith in -
Dawado
Rowe
Hawes
Dogs I think have value -
Maximov
Njokuani
Castenada
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isn't hawes a bit chinny? haven't taped, just off the top of my mind. davis is tough, she should win yeah. personally just have strickland and izzy as the last two legs of a parlay, think they both win a comfortable dec.
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#UFCVegas47
UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland
Saturday, February 5, 2022
6:00 PM eastern
Sean Strickland:
“I’m a way better grappler than Jack Hermansson is. I think it’s going to be a kickboxing match. I think we’re going to stand and bang. Obviously it’s a fight, anything happens, but like the 4th round I want to fooking take his soul. I want to take everything from him. I want to watch him bleed. I want to watch him hurt. The fourth round I really just want to fooking put it on him..... If Derek Brunson wins I think I should get the title shot if I beat Jack. If Jared Cannonier wins he deserves it. If Derek Brunson wins, we’ve already seen that. I think I should get it. Robert Whittaker ain’t gonna beat Izzy. No offense, Robert Whittaker, you’re a fooking savage. I’m a fan, dude. But Robert Whittaker ain’t gonna beat Israel Adesanya.”
UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland
Saturday, February 5, 2022
6:00 PM eastern
Sean Strickland:
“I’m a way better grappler than Jack Hermansson is. I think it’s going to be a kickboxing match. I think we’re going to stand and bang. Obviously it’s a fight, anything happens, but like the 4th round I want to fooking take his soul. I want to take everything from him. I want to watch him bleed. I want to watch him hurt. The fourth round I really just want to fooking put it on him..... If Derek Brunson wins I think I should get the title shot if I beat Jack. If Jared Cannonier wins he deserves it. If Derek Brunson wins, we’ve already seen that. I think I should get it. Robert Whittaker ain’t gonna beat Izzy. No offense, Robert Whittaker, you’re a fooking savage. I’m a fan, dude. But Robert Whittaker ain’t gonna beat Israel Adesanya.”
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Rowe isn't a noob on the ground though either. I realize Witt can maybe stay tight and stall, but other than that, I don't see him having much success down there.
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