UFC Fight Night - Strickland vs Hermansson - Official discussion

[TheLastOlympian07]

I was impressed by his fight with daukaus. He showed a lot of heart and durability. I was on daukaus in that fight and was very surprised

Same here, I was on Daukaus as well.

Funny how the Chris Curtis KO affect has you taking fights with Smilin Sam Alvey now and questioning whether or not a guy has lost 6 in a row can stop his losing streak

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Same here, I was on Daukaus as well.

Funny how the Chris Curtis KO affect has you taking fights with Smilin Sam Alvey now and questioning whether or not a guy has lost 6 in a row can stop his losing streak

Allen looked like a title contender vs Soriano now Sam alvey might beat him?

 

[TheLastOlympian07]

Allen looked like a title contender vs Soriano now Sam alvey might beat him?

that's the logic yes, styles make fights. Allen is better on the ground, Alvey has strong TDD, Allen might be chinny of Curtis has amazing power, answer lies somewhere in the middle. Alvey should lose this yea but that's a lot of juice to lay on Allen. I just wouldn't be surprised if Alvey catches Allen and gets meme'd to death

 

[mkess101]

With the fight cancelled now it's sort of moot, but I predict we'll see Hawes as a dud. He has a lot of trouble pacing himself and he has chin issues or bad reactions to be on the receiving end. His redeeming quality is that he does have wrestling to fall back on even when gassed. I just think he's a classic case of a guy who needs to be the hammer and can fold when it doesn't go his way. With how large the roster is now, there are definitely winnable fights even if it goes deep, but I don't see him making a splash at all long term.

He could be flop for sure. I think you're right in terms of his reaction to being hit clean. He may be a bit of a glass cannon.

I just didn't think Alvey possessed the necessary speed or skills anymore to land the shot he'd have needed to. But the odds also reflected that to be fair.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

that's the logic yes, styles make fights. Allen is better on the ground, Alvey has strong TDD, Allen might be chinny of Curtis has amazing power, answer lies somewhere in the middle. Alvey should lose this yea but that's a lot of juice to lay on Allen. I just wouldn't be surprised if Alvey catches Allen and gets meme'd to death

No way would I advocate laying that sauce on Allen, but he should probably cruise here

 

[Thesnake101]

that's the logic yes, styles make fights. Allen is better on the ground, Alvey has strong TDD, Allen might be chinny of Curtis has amazing power, answer lies somewhere in the middle. Alvey should lose this yea but that's a lot of juice to lay on Allen. I just wouldn't be surprised if Alvey catches Allen and gets meme'd to death

Alvey hasn't gotten a finished since Prachnio walked towards him with his hands down though, and before that he finished Kevin Casey and Spicely, both of whom are not durable at all.

If Sam was more willing to pull the trigger, I might understand the logic behind backing him, but it just doesn't seem worth it. This fight for me is either hit the over or pass.

 

[svmr_db]

Alvey vs Allen will take place at 205, definitely to Allen's benefit that he won't have to cut down to 185 on super short notice.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Allen who 6-2 with wins on Puna , Breese , and Holland , I can't say much for smiling Sam, his best accomplishment is a draw with Jung and Split losses with spann and Turman . His fighting style of just rope a doping and waiting to counter might of worked when he was younger and more powerful. If I'm measuring fighting style I got to go with the aggressor like Allen who will look more favorable to the eyes of the judges .

The only viable underdogs I see are Mike Trizano, and Jason Witt.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Allen who 6-2 with wins on Puna , Breese , and Holland , I can't say much for smiling Sam, his best accomplishment is a draw with Jung and Split losses with spann and Turman . His fighting style of just rope a doping and waiting to counter might of worked when he was younger and more powerful. If I'm measuring fighting style I got to go with the aggressor like Allen who will look more favorable to the eyes of the judges .

The only viable underdogs I see are Mike Trizano, and Jason Witt.

I am liking Bryan Battle as a underdog after some looking. He has more of armature fight records for someone coming into the UFC with just three fights.
Last time i placed on a fighter with three or four fighting records i lost my bets i am not going to be doing the same mistake i am not going to be driven by narratives.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Alvey hasn't gotten a finished since Prachnio walked towards him with his hands down though, and before that he finished Kevin Casey and Spicely, both of whom are not durable at all.

If Sam was more willing to pull the trigger, I might understand the logic behind backing him, but it just doesn't seem worth it. This fight for me is either hit the over or pass.

I see this fight match with Sam and Allen likely going into a another draw.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I am liking Bryan Battle as a underdog after some looking. He has more of armature fight records for someone coming into the UFC with just three fights.
Last time i placed on a fighter with three or four fighting records i lost my bets i am not going to be doing the same mistake i am not going to be driven by narratives.

That is worrisome, im high on Gore just because i like his form a lot better, on tape his style looked so smooth, he cross trains in boxing and his grappling looked solid.

i would say he is more like 8-1 combine ama-pro-exhibition ; battle is 16-2 with wins on Impa and Brundage and Peteovski, on paper he is the favorite. But when I taped their performance against Urbina, I saw one guy in a war(battle) and one guy just coasting and staying calm and composed and a complete dominating performance, this is why i think Gore is favored amonst the odds makers. But experience is a good reason to bet the dog and i can see battle having appeal, but I’m going with my gut here and going with Gore. He reminds me of Rashad evans after tuf.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Current odds what I'm looking at what do you guys think?

Witt+115
Barriaoult-105
Dawpdopu-175
Castaneda/John's- over 2.5-165
Gore/battle-un 2.5-130
Harris/rahlmaniov- un 1.5 +110
Soriank-190
Main event-over 4.5-105

2 events this yr so far I profited one and lost one with an overall profit of 332$

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Current odds what I'm looking at what do you guys think?

Witt+115
Barriaoult-105
Dawpdopu-175
Castaneda/John's- over 2.5-165
Gore/battle-un 2.5-130
Harris/rahlmaniov- un 1.5 +110
Soriank-190
Main event-over 4.5-105

2 events this yr so far I profited one and lost one with an overall profit of 332$

ohh i like that price for the gore/battle -130..No sides i will take the under on that one.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Really looking forward to shavkat vs Harris. Going to be a great fight. Both guys are finishers. Line is wide. Might look for the under 2.5 if it’s available

harris stays in the pocket and is willing to take one to give one. He’s very heavy handed and his ko line is +650

may also look to play the under in battle vs gore. Gore early, battle late props

Almeida is probably going to run through marques. can marques last until rd 2? Dunno if he’s going to have success with his single leg. He hasn’t faced much resistance in grappling so far and his cardio is pretty bad. Question marks about Almeida but I think he rolls here

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Sean Strickland has no plans to dial back: 'I'm just going to be the white trash motherf*cker that I am'

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Really looking forward to shavkat vs Harris. Going to be a great fight. Both guys are finishers. Line is wide. Might look for the under 2.5 if it’s available

harris stays in the pocket and is willing to take one to give one. He’s very heavy handed and his ko line is +650

may also look to play the under in battle vs gore. Gore early, battle late props

Almeida is probably going to run through marques. can marques last until rd 2? Dunno if he’s going to have success with his single leg. He hasn’t faced much resistance in grappling so far and his cardio is pretty bad. Question marks about Almeida but I think he rolls here

This fight match should be the people's main event i agree. I am having a hard time deciding on the fighters for this one.

 

[Dooze]

Allen straight up is obviously too juiced and Alveys not worth a bet even at these odds but the over at nearly evens looks decent, or Allen decision @ 2.65.

I expect Alvey to do his usual back to the cage, plodding around and not really throwing much other than an occasional counter hook. Not sure if Allen can ground him and keep him down but he should be able to win rounds by pressing him up against the cage and working for takedowns and just out voluming Alvey on the feet. Allen's not a great striker or anything and doesn't really have huge power so I think at near evens for the over he's not going to be a big KO threat to Alvey, and probably won't have him grounded for long periods of the fight so might not have to worry too much about the sub either. We've seen Allen finished by strikes a couple of times over the last 2 years which could be a slight worry against good strikers who can prevent the takedown, but Alveys inactivity on the feet and slow style you'd hope Allen as a top 15-20 MW would be able to avoid getting caught by him.

Think the over and Allen decision line probably has value here.

 

[Stat_Collector]

on the fence about witt and rowe.
rowe decision is 500+
witt 250+
but the fight looks like a Rowe finish or Witt decision type fight. Smaller cage favors witt. size and reach favors rowe.
hmmmm

 

[TrueAscension]

SPORTSLINE ANALYSIS - NOT MINE
SPOILER ALERT HE PICKS ONLY FAVORITES EXCEPT ONE EVEN MONEY FIGHT LULZ

Sean Strickland (-230) vs. Jack Hermansson (+195): Strickland

Jack Hermansson is known for his herky-jerky striking style and elite guillotine submission. Sean Strickland is a volume striker and should win most of the exchanges on the feet. Strickland seems to have solid takedown defense and, if he keeps this fight upright, I believe he will win.

Tresean Gore (-160) vs. Bryan Battle (+140): Gore

Tresean Gore is a good leg kicker and has great athleticism. Bryan Battle has good output and cardio. Both fighters are green, so this is a difficult fight to pick, considering the lack of data. If I'm forced to choose, I think Gore takes it.

Hakeem Dawodu (-185) vs. Michael Trizano (+165): Dawodu (best bet)

Hakeem Dawodu is a powerful striker and looks to establish a jab. Mike Trizano comes forward and also prefers to strike. I think this is a great matchup for Dawodu. He has a power edge and Trizano may very well walk right into his jab. I think he possibly finds a finish.

Julian Erosa (-290) vs. Steven Peterson (+245): Erosa

Julian Erosa is big for the weight class. He has long arms and comes forward, popping out a jab. He has a power edge. He will be met by Steven Peterson, who always goes for it as well. This should be a brawl and Erosa has the power edge, so I'm picking him to win.

Punahele Soriano (-185) vs. Nick Maximov (+165): Soriano

Nick Maximov is young and comes from a grappling background. Punahele Soriano has a wrestling background as well, but throws bombs on the feet. He is the better striker but has shown cardio issues in the past. Because of that, I'm picking Soriano to win.

Jailton Almeida (-400) vs. Danilo Marques (+320): Marques

Jailton Almeida impressed a lot of people on "Dana White's Contender's Series" last year. He is very physical and has a strong grappling pedigree. Danilo Marques has a strong grappling pedigree as well, but he is at a physicality deficit and is the weaker striker.

Chidi Njokuani (-115) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (-105): Barriault

Chidi Njokuani is coming off a big win on "Dana White's Contenders Series." He is a long striker that looks to use his range to win a kickboxing match on the feet. He has a 6-inch reach advantage here and will look to stay at distance with Barriault. Marc-Andre Barriault pressures his opponents on the feet and will look to keep Njokuani on the back foot. He has good volume and cardio. I expect him to win this fight.

Philip Rowe (-140) vs. Jason Witt (+120): Rowe

Phil Rowe has a whopping 10-inch reach advantage. He is a much better striker than Jason Witt. Witt is a wrestler but leaves a lot to be desired on the feet. Rowe has struggled with his defensive wrestling, so this is a binary matchup. I am picking Rowe, but this fight could go in several different directions.

Shavkat Rakhmonov (-230) Carlston Harris (+195): Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov brings a 14-0 record into this fight with Carlston Harris. Harris looks to wrestle. He is wild on the feet but has some power. Rakhmonov is a very strong grappler as well. I see him eventually finding a choke.

Denys Bondar (-245) vs. Malcolm Gordon (+205): Bondar

Denys Bondar comes forward and looks for takedowns. Malcolm Gordon is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but sometimes accepts bottom position. I expect Bondar to get takedowns and eventually find a submission.

Phil Hawes (-360) vs. Sam Alvey (+300): Hawes

Phil Hawes and Sam Alvey both throw heavy shots. Alvey is on a losing streak, but he is still not an easy night out. Hawes is explosive and can wrestle, but he has a bad habit of getting cracked in fights. Even so, I see him landing first.

Alexis Davis (-215) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+185): Davis

Alexis Davis has lost a lot of close decisions lately against a high level of competition. On paper, this is her most favorable matchup in a long time. Julija Storialenko is the bigger fighter and is tough, but she relies on her submission game, which I don't see working against Davis.

 

[svmr_db]

This interview of Allen's a bit troubling, he doesn't seem particularly prepared to fight. I'm sure most people think he should be able to roll off the couch and beat Sam Alvey, but proceed with caution imo.