UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[Officer_Brown]

euro lines

Jason Gonzalez - J.C. Cottrell 1.65-2.10

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (BRA) - John Phillips 1.65-2.10

Eric Shelton - Alexandre Pantoja 1.90-1.90

Alessio Di Chirico (ITA) - Eric Spicely (USA) 1.90.1.80

Luis Henrique da Silva (BRA) - Jordan Johnson 1.55-2.30

Li Jingliang (CHN) - Bobby Nash 1.72-2.0



Ovince St. Preux (HAI) - Jan Blachowicz (POL) 1.65-2.10

Thanks. Very interesting that cottrell is the dog here. Seriously I need to rewatch his fight again.
Hmm....... Di chirico isnt the fav? people riding hard on spicelys nuts now
De Lima is always the fav but finds a way to fart and fuck everything up.

 

[rille31]

Where dude

betathome

shitty limits

 

[Shoulder]

Ok I'll put a unit on Nate the Great at 2.25 as well, if he comes in and uses at least some of his wrestling he should have this in the bag. He could be KOd at any moment, but he should not be such a big dog.

 

[rille31]

thoughts

think I like spiceboy @ a pick em
guy fights to his strenghts and has a clear grappling advantage

wiki cappin pantoja/shelton but at close to a pick em propably on pantoja

jc as a dog has to be the play to make, will propably be the favourite when he opens @ 5dimes

will propably fade frankenstein as a short notice favourite

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Ok I'll put a unit on Nate the Great at 2.25 as well, if he comes in and uses at least some of his wrestling he should have this in the bag. He could be KOd at any moment, but he should not be such a big dog.

My Expert Breakdown:
Tough fight for Nate and I don't think his wrestling will be that effective at all. Alvey has got 88% TDD and Nate isn't some great wrestler. Nates best chance is on the feet, Alvey is too patient and like to counter punch, maybe Nate can win a decision by just doing more or land something significant and stop Alvey, doubtful though. Barncat has massive holes in his game and was a great style match up for Nate but Nate is still Nate, old and regressing

 

[Officer_Brown]

My Expert Breakdown:
Tough fight for Nate and I don't think his wrestling will be that effective at all. Alvey has got 88% TDD and Nate isn't some great wrestler. Nates best chance is on the feet, Alvey is too patient and like to counter punch, maybe Nate can win a decision by just doing more or land something significant and stop Alvey, doubtful though. Barncat has massive holes in his game and was a great style match up for Nate but Nate is still Nate, old and regressing

Seems like I have to disagree with my ghost account.
Alvey looked TERRIBLE in his last. He should have put that guy away. Alvey gassed in r1 basically. Nate has clear cardio advantage. And look who has Nate fought in recent years. Alvey would get his shit kicked in by same guys. Alvey has low volume punching. Lets say Nate cant get alvey down... and it goes to a decision. No way they give avey a decision in NATES BACKYARD.
Alvey isnt that goo'd.

 

[vkram]

Seems like I have to disagree with my ghost account.
Alvey looked TERRIBLE in his last. He should have put that guy away. Alvey gassed in r1 basically. Nate has clear cardio advantage. And look who has Nate fought in recent years. Alvey would get his shit kicked in by same guys. Alvey has low volume punching. Lets say Nate cant get alvey down... and it goes to a decision. No way they give avey a decision in NATES BACKYARD.
Alvey isnt that goo'd.

The fight vs Nicholson was in Mexico City which is even higher elevation than Denver from what I remember.

 

[Officer_Brown]

The fight vs Nicholson was in Mexico City which is even higher elevation than Denver from what I remember.

Correct.
Denver Colorado: Elevation 5,690 feet.
mexico city 7380 feet.

If alvey gassed out in r1 at mexico then we could expect him to gas maybe in the middle of the second round? Nate trains at altitude all the time. If this fight was near sea level I would have much more doubts but this shit just favors Nate.
Also tnx for @Rebel_LioN for bringing out the Aljamain interview. Alja didnt seem to be sure of himself or what he is going to do. Confidence increase Assuncao. Again.. this altitude. Didnt Alja gas after r1 vs Caraway? I think his athletic muscular body needs oxygen. I see Assuncao being much more efficent. Alja could steal r1 if he blews his wad but after that its all Rafaels. Confidence double increase Assuncao.

 

[vkram]

Correct.
Denver Colorado: Elevation 5,690 feet.
mexico city 7380 feet.

If alvey gassed out in r1 at mexico then we could expect him to gas maybe in the middle of the second round? Nate trains at altitude all the time. If this fight was near sea level I would have much more doubts but this shit just favors Nate.
Also tnx for @Rebel_LioN for bringing out the Aljamain interview. Alja didnt seem to be sure of himself or what he is going to do. Confidence increase Assuncao. Again.. this altitude. Didnt Alja gas after r1 vs Caraway? I think his athletic muscular body needs oxygen. I see Assuncao being much more efficent. Alja could steal r1 if he blews his wad but after that its all Rafaels. Confidence double increase Assuncao.

I listen to the Anik and Florian podcast weekly and they have Longo as one of their guests all the time. He said that Aljo went out like 2/3 weeks early to Denver. I think Aljo gassed because he was going all out in round 1 but his kick heavy game doesn't help his gas tank either.

 

[Basek]

Found Some serious Big Data analytics

http://cagerank.com/G18O.AdMujA/Andrei-Arlovski-vs-Francis-Ngannou

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Seems like I have to disagree with my ghost account.
Alvey looked TERRIBLE in his last. He should have put that guy away. Alvey gassed in r1 basically. Nate has clear cardio advantage. And look who has Nate fought in recent years. Alvey would get his shit kicked in by same guys. Alvey has low volume punching. Lets say Nate cant get alvey down... and it goes to a decision. No way they give avey a decision in NATES BACKYARD.
Alvey isnt that goo'd.

I didn't think that Alvey looked 'TERRIBLE' last fight but I actually thought that Nicholson arguably won that fight, depends how you score the 2nd round. Alvey's worst fight by far is the Theodorou fight, ever since that fight it's been hard to trust Alvey. He literally did nothing for 15 minutes and gave the fight away.

Nate has lost to good competition but he was dominated in his losses, lopsided decisions and KO's. Not saying Alvey would beat those guys or not but it's kind of irrelevant anyway. Styles make fights and Alvey isn't a good style match up for Nate. Highly doubt the TD is there for Nate and I think he's gonna get pieced up on the feet. He doesn't take damage well anymore and Alvey is a puncher. 37 year old Nate Marquart is at the end of his career and I'm surprised he's lasted this long in the UFC. He got lucky vs CB and Tamdan was a gift. He's terrible at winning rounds and hasn't won a decision since 2011 against Dan Miller. Alvey is no world beater but I think he wins this fight.

Also hometown judging in America isn't that same as fighting in Brazil or Canada as a foreigner. Usually They'll have Vegas or Jersey judges mixed in with a hometown guy no matter where the fights take place in the States. Remember Jessica Eye vs Bethe.

 

[Slohog]

Found Some serious Big Data analytics

http://cagerank.com/G18O.AdMujA/Andrei-Arlovski-vs-Francis-Ngannou

That might be the most retarded crap I've ever read lol. Fair enough to be on Arlovski but that's some huge horseshit.

 

[Basek]

That might be the most retarded crap I've ever read lol. Fair enough to be on Arlovski but that's some huge horseshit.

That was exactly my impression Plus I am betting Francis so hate went with double force.

 

[Sham5916910]

Very interesting stat re Nate and Alvey. Nate slpm 2.72 - Alvey slpm 3.87. I keep forgetting Nate has that KO loss to Santos sandwiched between the CB and Barncat wins i keep thinking he has two straight wins.

Anyway, I looked at Nate's last four fights (didn't include Santos as it was over so quick) and he averages 12 sig strikers per round. Since Alvey stunk the joint up against Elias he has really upped his sig strikers per round. Against Spicely he landed 8 in 2.5 mins despite spending most of that time pressed against the cage. Against Casey he landed 19 sig strikes in r1 and 40 in r2. Against Nicholson 14 sig strikes r1, 27 sig strikes r2 and 22 sig strikes r3. From this data it looks to me like Alvey learnt his lesson against Elias. Trusting Alvey to out volume someone is a bit of a risky proposition, but Nate has looked like shit and the stats back this up. Need to rewatch Nate's fights until i make a definitive decision. I really wanted Alvey at evens tho.

I don't normally go too much into data like this but i think it is really significant in this fight.

 

[Ukram]

here is a few more fights if you want to add them to your post:

vs frank trigg


vs Pavel Kusch



vs james zikic



vs Santos Lacerda



vs jesse taylor
https://www.ufc.tv/video/jesse-taylor-vs-john-phillips-cage-warriors-fc-54

Phillips have zero tdd. if only Lima had good fight iq and we knew he would go for a TD i would bet him big depending on price..

Nice job on the other tape was glancing over the net for that trigg fight, either way with 2 big hws that go all out in 5 minutes I think under 1.5 is a solid play but it will probably be unplayable by the time the lines come out to us euro/uk guys.

Didnt Alja gas after r1 vs Caraway? I think his athletic muscular body needs oxygen. I see Assuncao being much more efficent. Alja could steal r1 if he blews his wad but after that its all Rafaels. Confidence double increase Assuncao.

I think Aljo gassed because he was going all out in round 1 but his kick heavy game doesn't help his gas tank either.

Yup exactly hit the nail on the head, sterling does not always pace himself well and sometimes needs to take a round off, he has been known to slow right down at times by going all out. Tj I felt did the same with RA in r1 in their first fight and had nothing in the tank for r3 and lost that split decision.

RA at least paces himself well across 3 rounds and tries to avoid the grappling, ji jitsu and ground game to stop himself from gassing, RA also has nice tight controlled boxing and while basic applies good fight iq within his style, low leg kicks followed by a nasty hook, only someone quite tactical or experienced like tj, cruz could eventually counter and avoid it.

There are some factors like RA being 34, 1 fight in past 2 years, past injuries, high altitude but they effect sterling also style wise and altitude I still favour RA a bit more over sterling right now.

 

[Ukram]

jason gonzalez
Last few fights here:
https://www.ufc.tv/video/drew-dober-vs-jason-gonzalez-ufc-2013-miocic-vs-overeem

Tuf fights :
https://www.ufc.tv/video/abner-llov...timate-fighter-22-team-mcgregor-vs-team-faber

https://www.ufc.tv/video/jason-gonz...timate-fighter-22-team-mcgregor-vs-team-faber



JC Cottrell
Last few fights here:
https://www.ufc.tv/video/michel-prazeres-vs-jc-cottrell-ufc-on-fox-20

2 other recent fights




I like that above cottrell fight with cody, cody has a similar height and build like Jason does and cottrell did struggle with the height and range at times against cody till he started to mix in his wrestling in r2 and r3. Jason is much better then cody though, better MT and striking and also has a persistent jab and good knees (uses his height and long legs well) his take down defence is ok at times, guess the question is can cottrell get him down ? Probably yes if he really commits but Cottrell has shown at times a lack of experience and confidence against more powerful strikers and fighters something Jason should have. Barely favouring Jason here over the live dog Cottrell.

Only play I like here is overs 1.5 first, 2.5 second, but if I had to pick Jason decision otherwise.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I know RA is Brazilian, but very curious to see if Aljo gasses harder at altitude after clearly blowing his wad big time vs Caraway

 

[Joseph Budden]

I listen to the Anik and Florian podcast weekly and they have Longo as one of their guests all the time. He said that Aljo went out like 2/3 weeks early to Denver. I think Aljo gassed because he was going all out in round 1 but his kick heavy game doesn't help his gas tank either.

Whelp should've read the thread before my comment above. Def a good move from Aljo after not being efficient with his energy vs Caraway

 

[EzFlyer]

I didnt say bums. I think mas beats them all handily too tho. Its not like hes been fighting top tier guys. Dont get me wrong he looked great up until the brown fight but lets not get ahead of ourselves. Hes been out boxed by many a fighter with no where near as good a boxing as mas but his ground game or headkick has saved him. Ground games a wash here and i think mas will pressure to nullify that headkick.

Plus larkin trumps anyone cowboy has fought at 170. Yeah he lost but it was damn close

man we're not seeing eye to eye here..

ground game a wash? no freakin way in my opinion.. cowboy is a waaaay better bjj'er... and larkin is on a similar level to story, cote & brown. for sure, imo.

no disrespect meant in this post, just emphatic disagreement

 

[wack3d]