UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

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Cptn1NSAN0 said:
Okay finished watching tape on Marquardt, started some on Alvey. Here's what I took away:

Nate's strengths:
- low kicks
- feints
- hard counterpunches on backfoot
- better at counterpunching than leading but used feints very well in his most recent fight to have more success leading
- sneaky switch kicks
- good use of jab to open up other strikes
- big power
- good top control
- good BJJ
-great in clinch, throws knees from there

Weaknesses:
- has slowed down considerably from his prime days, struggles with really fast guys
- suspect chin
- tendency to retreat with his hands down when getting tagged
- gets swarmed against the cage a lot
- guys with good movement and boxing give him problems

Alvey has a very similar style to Marquardt really. He likes to let opponents into range and then throw hard counters, but tends to favor basic hook combos where Nate comes more over the top.
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Finished watching tape on Alvey.

Strengths:
- Loose, relaxed
- decent chin (eaten some bombs, wobbled by others)
- willing to take one to give one
- nice left straight
- tricky counter hooks
- big power
- makes opponents pay if they drop their guard at all or keep head on center line
- quick hands in Rd 1

Weaknesses:
- flat footed, plodder
- very low volume
- limited striking arsenal
- struggles with guys who can mix up their offense and keep range
- eats a lot of jabs
- very little regard for defense when exchanging

Marquardt is better everywhere except chin imo. There is a decent chance that Alvey KOs Nate as Nate doesn't react very well when he gets tagged these days. But Alvey has shown that he can be wobbled too and Nate's got the power and countering ability. I see the likely outcome as Nate mixing up his strikes and working behind his jab and kicks, using feints to disrupt Alvey's timing. Both guys like to draw opponents in and counter, but Nate is more versatile in this area and tends to land more accurately. Nate should have the cardio advantage as well. Despite slowing down with age, Nate still keeps a much higher output than Sam and this could def win him rounds. The guys who tend to give Nate problems are guys who are fast and/or can box athletically. Kelvin gave Nate fits with his movement and jab, Santos with his rangy Muay Thai attack and speed. Sam possesses neither of these qualities. The guys who give Alvey issues are guys who can mix up their attack and avoid a pocket brawl, using kicks and other long range strikes. Marquardt has been fighting exactly this way since he's evolved his game to rely less on physical advantages and more on technical ones.

So taking a stab on Nate the Great. 1.5u, no more as there is a chance he gets KOd.
 
man did someone do a breakdown of jingliang/nash or did i just imagine reading that when i was hammered?
 
OB not even trying to hide it now.

Not gonna lie, I like it OB.

2sREC.gif
 
mkess101 said:
LOL. Just...c'mon. This is cringeworthy. Unless my suspicions are correct and OB created an alternate account to tout himself.

In which case...well done OB, I like it. Maybe you could have laid it on a LITTLE less thick, but still good.
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Honestly There is no relation I just appreciate the opinion of a like minded high level bettor.
 
something to keep in mind with Nash is he is still young and the improvement he made to his standup in 5 month between these fights is pretty incredible imo

Nash vs Trevino (march 26th)



Nash vs Gonzales (august 27th)

 
Odds that MMA Gambling Expert is Officer Brown's ghost account

Yes -4000
No +3500
 
Pretty pissed at myself for not thinking of that idea first though. Would have a lot of fun sucking my own dick on a ghost account
 
Joseph Budden said:
Pretty pissed at myself for not thinking of that idea first though. Would have a lot of fun sucking my own dick on a ghost account
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Exactly!

OB kinda irritated me at first, but he really seems to be coming into his own. Gotta give him props.
 
I miss buddy Brown. Buddy Brown pm me with whatever new account you're using lol

Hows nngangou's chin? Is AA the best boxer he has faced?
 
Ukram said:
John Phillips
-21-6 (18 kos, 3 subs)

HL reel:



Other randoms
-Dubbed white 'Mike tyson'
-20 round 1 kos
-ex Bamma champ

So 2 big hws and philips has 20 kos in r1 and Lima has 13 r1 finishes (submissions and kos)
under 1.5, fight does not go distance, r1 props all sound good to me.

Lima has more 'ways' to win imo, good ko power and submission ability lately, but philips has ko ability more so lately. Not really seen philips ground game since he is too busy knocking out guys in r1 all the time, I suspect its not as good as limas submission or ground game but to philips credit he does also have 3 submission wins, if I had to pick Lima r1 finish, but the other props are better.
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here is a few more fights if you want to add them to your post:

vs frank trigg


vs Pavel Kusch



vs james zikic



vs Santos Lacerda



vs jesse taylor
https://www.ufc.tv/video/jesse-taylor-vs-john-phillips-cage-warriors-fc-54

Phillips have zero tdd. if only Lima had good fight iq and we knew he would go for a TD i would bet him big depending on price..
 
mkess101 said:
LOL. Just...c'mon. This is cringeworthy. Unless my suspicions are correct and OB created an alternate account to tout himself.

In which case...well done OB, I like it. Maybe you could have laid it on a LITTLE less thick, but still good.
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NinjaCat456 said:
Fixed.
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mkess101 said:
Exactly!

OB kinda irritated me at first, but he really seems to be coming into his own. Gotta give him props.
Click to expand...
Joseph Budden said:
Pretty pissed at myself for not thinking of that idea first though. Would have a lot of fun sucking my own dick on a ghost account
Click to expand...

No.. honestly its not my alternate account. As you can see MMA Gambling expert speaks perfect English... read his posts and compare them to mine. My English sucks grammatically but I'm learning to speak it better every day.

I think its Buddy Brown/Brick top's new account. he knew that he was gonna get banned after UFN 103 (he was yellow carded before the event) So he made a new account few days before he got banned with Buddys's account not to look suspicious this time. Look at his post history he picked Saenz I picked Augusto mendes.
He ironically said "I have high level breakdowns" which I actually don't have. I just make it simple with few sentences. But who the fuck needs 10 page fight breakdown if you can't predict a fight correctly? If my picks are correct then who the fuck cares about long breakdowns honestly? im gonna smash every bookie this event too you guys will see.
 
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Officer_Brown said:
No.. honestly its not my alternate account. As you can see MMA Gambling expert speaks perfect English... read his posts and compare them to mine. My English sucks grammatically but I'm learning to speak it better every day.

I think its Buddy Brown/Brick top's new account. he knew that he was gonna get banned after UFN 103 (he was yellow carded before the event) So he made a new account few days before he got banned with Buddys's account not to look suspicious this time. Look at his post history he picked Saenz I picked Augusto mendes.
He ironically said "I have high level breakdowns" which I actually don't have. I just make it simple with few sentences. But who the fuck needs 10 page fight breakdown if you can't predict a fight correctly? If my picks are correct then who the fuck cares about long breakdowns honestly? im gonna smash every bookie this event too you guys will see.
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Thou protest a bit too much
 
euro lines

Jason Gonzalez - J.C. Cottrell 1.65-2.10

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (BRA) - John Phillips 1.65-2.10

Eric Shelton - Alexandre Pantoja 1.90-1.90

Alessio Di Chirico (ITA) - Eric Spicely (USA) 1.90.1.80

Luis Henrique da Silva (BRA) - Jordan Johnson 1.55-2.30

Li Jingliang (CHN) - Bobby Nash 1.72-2.0



Ovince St. Preux (HAI) - Jan Blachowicz (POL) 1.65-2.10
 
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