UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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Eric Shelton
-10-2 (5 subs, 2kos)
Last few fights here:
Young, athletic and a solid all rounder most of his opponents don't wish to strike with him and rather take him down, but he is active always off his back and looks for reversals and always attempts submissions. His striking is serviceable but not been able to see much of it, many also say his tuf fight with tim elliott should have been a draw and should have seen the 3rd round.
Alexandre pantoja
-16-2 (6 subs, 6 kos)
Last few fights here:
Pantoja has good submissions and a good all round game, nice body kicks and take downs but he has slowed down few times and allowed others to take over with cardio alone.
Both champs from other organizations, Pantoja was the no1 seed on tuf while Shelton was 15.
Can't trust pantojas cardio but he does put on stronger performances early in the round especially in r1. Shelton could take over the fight from r2 on cardio alone, he also showed he is hard to submit.
Not seen the lines, but expect pantoja to be a favourite but I do think sheltons cardio and ability make him a decent dog.
Good live bet fight if pantojas weight cut goes bad or he slows down much in r1,r2, if he does ill be on shelton small.
-10-2 (5 subs, 2kos)
Last few fights here:
Young, athletic and a solid all rounder most of his opponents don't wish to strike with him and rather take him down, but he is active always off his back and looks for reversals and always attempts submissions. His striking is serviceable but not been able to see much of it, many also say his tuf fight with tim elliott should have been a draw and should have seen the 3rd round.
Alexandre pantoja
-16-2 (6 subs, 6 kos)
Last few fights here:
Pantoja has good submissions and a good all round game, nice body kicks and take downs but he has slowed down few times and allowed others to take over with cardio alone.
Both champs from other organizations, Pantoja was the no1 seed on tuf while Shelton was 15.
Can't trust pantojas cardio but he does put on stronger performances early in the round especially in r1. Shelton could take over the fight from r2 on cardio alone, he also showed he is hard to submit.
Not seen the lines, but expect pantoja to be a favourite but I do think sheltons cardio and ability make him a decent dog.
Good live bet fight if pantojas weight cut goes bad or he slows down much in r1,r2, if he does ill be on shelton small.
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He was clearly out imo
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Trouble with Arlovski is (aside from his age) he doesn't do so well against explosive black dudes. Think Ngannou wrecks him.
piglord
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i'm pretty sure ishihara dropped a massive bet on himself before he fought erosa.
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05:36 Pena believes in astrology. Confidence increase Shevchenko.
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ATTENTION!
we have plenty of time until this event but my first leans are: Shevchenko, Masvidal, Spicely, Knight, Cottrell, Marquardt
Seriously guys I think Cerrone's decline starts from here. He looked bad vs Brown tbh and has tons of fights behind him. And Masvidal would also wreck all the guys Cerrone has fought at WW. Masvidal has better crisp boxing imo plus better chin. And ofc Donald has that liver issue. Masvidal has great kicks and he can hurt Cerrone for sure.
Its Marquards backyard. Alvey's cardio sucked big time in this last fight and this fight will be on altitude. I think he will gas pretty quick. Marquardt also wrestlefucks him if he wants. I am shocked that Alvey is the favorite here.
Andreis chances are better than 4-1 odds shows imo. Again this fight on altitude and Andre actually trains at altitude all the time. Ngannou on the other hand... I think he will gas if he is unable to put andrei away in the first round.
Di Chirico isnt that good. He was hyped up a lot but look who he fought and lost. Bojan sucks and Chirico squeezed out split dec vs McLellal (who is cut by now) Spicely might be the MW barberena (everyone think he sucks but he is actually very good)
Jason gonzalez is not good. Cottrell fought beast Prazeres on short notice and didnt look bad. He will dominate this fight.
De Lima has a fight IQ of a potato. Phillips is a brawler and I doubt he has wrestling to fuck with de lima there. Need to watch Phillips more.
Caceres/Knight will be close. I know i said smash caceres odds but I was drunk and messed up
Hooker and Knight. Idk my memory said Hooker dominated Knight in his last fight but it was exactly the opposite.
we have plenty of time until this event but my first leans are: Shevchenko, Masvidal, Spicely, Knight, Cottrell, Marquardt
Seriously guys I think Cerrone's decline starts from here. He looked bad vs Brown tbh and has tons of fights behind him. And Masvidal would also wreck all the guys Cerrone has fought at WW. Masvidal has better crisp boxing imo plus better chin. And ofc Donald has that liver issue. Masvidal has great kicks and he can hurt Cerrone for sure.
Its Marquards backyard. Alvey's cardio sucked big time in this last fight and this fight will be on altitude. I think he will gas pretty quick. Marquardt also wrestlefucks him if he wants. I am shocked that Alvey is the favorite here.
Andreis chances are better than 4-1 odds shows imo. Again this fight on altitude and Andre actually trains at altitude all the time. Ngannou on the other hand... I think he will gas if he is unable to put andrei away in the first round.
Di Chirico isnt that good. He was hyped up a lot but look who he fought and lost. Bojan sucks and Chirico squeezed out split dec vs McLellal (who is cut by now) Spicely might be the MW barberena (everyone think he sucks but he is actually very good)
Jason gonzalez is not good. Cottrell fought beast Prazeres on short notice and didnt look bad. He will dominate this fight.
De Lima has a fight IQ of a potato. Phillips is a brawler and I doubt he has wrestling to fuck with de lima there. Need to watch Phillips more.
Caceres/Knight will be close. I know i said smash caceres odds but I was drunk and messed up
Hooker and Knight. Idk my memory said Hooker dominated Knight in his last fight but it was exactly the opposite.
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Few wild thoughts on RA and Sterling
I can see sterling does not like getting hit, resorts to footwork and movement to avoid most of it but he is very persistent in take downs and grappling exchanges. Taking mizugaki and caraways back and controlling them was impressive for sterling, RA did have the same issue with tj in fight number one (3 years ago) in r1, but RA is a bjj instructor and bbj black belt its gonna be very hard to submit him.
RA looks and fights much different though in 2016, he broke his ankle and required surgery which kept him on the shelf for over almost 2 years. Also no IV treatment, guy is a massive bantamweight as it is. He only fought once in 2016 and that was 7 months ago, he looked slower and not as effective against Tj II also. But does any of this give Sterling any advantages ?
I am going to say no for now, RA still has better power in his striking overall to look better then sterling, maybe just has to watch out for sterling's front kick, RA also has good ji jitsu to counter submissions and gets better at defending take downs later on. RA also paces himself well and keeps the fight standing more, while sterling does not at times.
Going with overs here first, both will point fight much I reckon but do like RA decision.
I can see sterling does not like getting hit, resorts to footwork and movement to avoid most of it but he is very persistent in take downs and grappling exchanges. Taking mizugaki and caraways back and controlling them was impressive for sterling, RA did have the same issue with tj in fight number one (3 years ago) in r1, but RA is a bjj instructor and bbj black belt its gonna be very hard to submit him.
RA looks and fights much different though in 2016, he broke his ankle and required surgery which kept him on the shelf for over almost 2 years. Also no IV treatment, guy is a massive bantamweight as it is. He only fought once in 2016 and that was 7 months ago, he looked slower and not as effective against Tj II also. But does any of this give Sterling any advantages ?
I am going to say no for now, RA still has better power in his striking overall to look better then sterling, maybe just has to watch out for sterling's front kick, RA also has good ji jitsu to counter submissions and gets better at defending take downs later on. RA also paces himself well and keeps the fight standing more, while sterling does not at times.
Going with overs here first, both will point fight much I reckon but do like RA decision.
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John Phillips
-21-6 (18 kos, 3 subs)
HL reel:
Other randoms
-Dubbed white 'Mike tyson'
-20 round 1 kos
-ex Bamma champ
So 2 big hws and philips has 20 kos in r1 and Lima has 13 r1 finishes (submissions and kos)
under 1.5, fight does not go distance, r1 props all sound good to me.
Lima has more 'ways' to win imo, good ko power and submission ability lately, but philips has ko ability more so lately. Not really seen philips ground game since he is too busy knocking out guys in r1 all the time, I suspect its not as good as limas submission or ground game but to philips credit he does also have 3 submission wins, if I had to pick Lima r1 finish, but the other props are better.
-21-6 (18 kos, 3 subs)
HL reel:
Other randoms
-Dubbed white 'Mike tyson'
-20 round 1 kos
-ex Bamma champ
So 2 big hws and philips has 20 kos in r1 and Lima has 13 r1 finishes (submissions and kos)
under 1.5, fight does not go distance, r1 props all sound good to me.
Lima has more 'ways' to win imo, good ko power and submission ability lately, but philips has ko ability more so lately. Not really seen philips ground game since he is too busy knocking out guys in r1 all the time, I suspect its not as good as limas submission or ground game but to philips credit he does also have 3 submission wins, if I had to pick Lima r1 finish, but the other props are better.
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What the hell. I have also been thinking the same thing for years. Never heard anyone else talk about it
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I'd pay attention people, Officer Brown is a high level MMA bettor. big difference between someone that wins $50 a night and 5k in a night. I'll always value the opinion of a higher stakes player like yourself than a lower one. These are some high level breakdowns too, very impressive. All you $50 bettors and 10 team parlays bettors should pay attention, this guy could help you win back the money you've lost and then some.
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just a few thoughts..
i still need to watch more tape so could be wrong but early thoughts
i dont think Phillips has any ground game at all just watch the Trigg fight he looked like a white belt there.. absolute domination once he got taken down. i know it was a while ago but since then he also got subbed quickly in two other fights. he has nasty power though and if lima dont go for a takedown i think its pretty much 50/50 on who will land something big first
i have a hard time imagining Cottrell dominate any fighter.. i remember thinking he was one of the worst guys to be in the ufc after watching tape on him prior to the Prazeres fight and even after that fight i think i mentioned it again =/
not sure how much influence it had but Di Chirico did recive news just prior to the fight about the earthquake that happend in italy hence the black arm band he wore.. could be that his mind was not 100% on the fight
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LOL. Just...c'mon. This is cringeworthy. Unless my suspicions are correct and OB created an alternate account to tout himself.
In which case...well done OB, I like it. Maybe you could have laid it on a LITTLE less thick, but still good.
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Officer Brown alt confirmed
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Ma' man.
piglord
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"If my kicks don't work, we're mentally prepared to switch gears and put some paws on him, clinch, and out scramble to get the W."
i don't like the sound of that whatsoever. i think this is one of those fights which really is as obvious as the first impression. if sterling can't get the fight to the mat he's going to lose the standup.
raphael has a great, compact build for defending takedowns and i think he looked fine against dillashaw who is just more dynamic on the feet. of course, sterling could have made major improvements in the standup but that's still a "what if". i may play assuncao straight but would prefer him at pick 'em odds.
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