UFC Fox 24 - DJ vs Reis - Kansas City

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Look at the state of Nelson. How can any MMA fan back that fat fuck? Take away an overhand right and he's the equivalent of fighting a Saturday night drunkard in a rough pub
 
The case for Williams...

You guys know how much I love Duquesnoy and think of his potential, but this is betting and it's about letting the line dictate the play. It isn't for your fanboyism, Mel Kiper's "Big Board" or the MMA Clairvoyant Hour with yours truly. Having said that, as Patrick Williams continues to move up the wager line — hovering around +300 now — I can make a case for pulling the trigger on him. Certainly, the more he climbs the more palatable he becomes as an underdog play. Indeed, this is due to several points, the most salient of those being: Duquesnoy is just a kid still. In fact, he's just 23 years old. Ergo, there are bound to be growing pains and in MMA growing pains often equals catching L's.

It's his octagon debut: I don't care how good you are, every fighter has talked about the reality of "octagon jitters" and this could have a real effect on the outcome. We saw it with Daniel Cormier when he looked flat as a fritter against Frank Mir. Hell, we've witnessed far worse performance than that.

Several fighters that went on to become top contenders or even champions were defeated in their freshman outing. Specifically, this includes — former dominant lightweight champions — RDA and Anthony Pettis. The former had his head knocked into the fifth row by a thunderous Sagat-esque Tiger Blow uppercut from Jeremy Stephens while the latter was swaddled like a newborn baby for 15-minutes in the Clay Guida wet blanket special.

Additionally, Robbie Lawler and Nick Diaz lost so many times early in their career that they were actually released by the UFC. Furthermore, Khabib Nurmagomedov was flat in his debut vs. Gleison Tibau and should have lost. Actually, while the judges awarded him a controversial "W" for that shit show, most cageside observers, fans at home and MMA media had the Brazilian winning that night.

Size: Although he has competed as a featherweight — and even became champion in the weight class — Duquesnoy was vastly outsized by the competition. Not just at 145 pounds, but even as a bantamweight Duquesnoy is on the smallish side. Meanwhile, his opponent, Patrick Williams, is perhaps the biggest 135 pound fighter on the roster. The guy is absolute monster — aptly named "The Beast" — who must have to dehydrate himself like a fucking SlimJim to make the weight. Somehow he does indeed make it and on fight night he is strong as a radioactive gorilla.

Wrestling: Williams is a D1 collegiate wrestling champion who is built like a Sherman tank and has a double leg takedown equivalent to a runaway beer truck. This might wear down the already anxious Duquesnoy to the point where he becomes a virtual shell of the offensive juggernaut people know him as. It also could make him doubt himself.

Ultimately at +300 I can already say Williams is worth a flier and if he is to go in any larger — as he gets bet down by those "experts" and casual public killing the juice — we can possibly get can't miss odds on him. Williams isn't just a specialist who requires a lucky shot, rather he has knockout power and submission grappling which present the 35-year-old Power-MMA product multiple paths to victory.

Undoubtably, in the future I believe that Duquesnoy will compete for a championship belt, but this may come as a flyweight or just down the road as a bantamweight once his body fills out. Nevertheless, at 23 he may be the next RDA or Pettis or other future great who loses their Octagon debut. At +300 I'm willing to see if Pat can play spoiler.
 
MMA Goodfella said:
The case for Williams...

You guys know how much I love Duquesnoy and think of his potential, but this is betting and it's about letting the line dictate the play. It isn't for your fanboyism, Mel Kiper's "Big Board" or the MMA Clairvoyant Hour with yours truly. Having said that, as Patrick Williams continues to move up the wager line — hovering around +300 now — I can make a case for pulling the trigger on him. Certainly, the more he climbs the more palatable he becomes as an underdog play. Indeed, this is due to several points, the most salient of those being: Duquesnoy is just a kid still. In fact, he's just 23 years old. Ergo, there are bound to be growing pains and in MMA growing pains often equals catching L's.

It's his octagon debut: I don't care how good you are, every fighter has talked about the reality of "octagon jitters" and this could have a real effect on the outcome. We saw it with Daniel Cormier when he looked flat as a fritter against Frank Mir. Hell, we've witnessed far worse performance than that.

Several fighters that went on to become top contenders or even champions were defeated in their freshman outing. Specifically, this includes — former dominant lightweight champions — RDA and Anthony Pettis. The former had his head knocked into the fifth row by a thunderous Sagat-esque Tiger Blow uppercut from Jeremy Stephens while the latter was swaddled like a newborn baby for 15-minutes in the Clay Guida wet blanket special.

Additionally, Robbie Lawler and Nick Diaz lost so many times early in their career that they were actually released by the UFC. Furthermore, Khabib Nurmagomedov was flat in his debut vs. Gleison Tibau and should have lost. Actually, while the judges awarded him a controversial "W" for that shit show, most cageside observers, fans at home and MMA media had the Brazilian winning that night.

Size: Although he has competed as a featherweight — and even became champion in the weight class — Duquesnoy was vastly outsized by the competition. Not just at 145 pounds, but even as a bantamweight Duquesnoy is on the smallish side. Meanwhile, his opponent, Patrick Williams, is perhaps the biggest 135 pound fighter on the roster. The guy is absolute monster — aptly named "The Beast" — who must have to dehydrate himself like a fucking SlimJim to make the weight. Somehow he does indeed make it and on fight night he is strong as a radioactive gorilla.

Wrestling: Williams is a D1 collegiate wrestling champion who is built like a Sherman tank and has a double leg takedown equivalent to a runaway beer truck. This might wear down the already anxious Duquesnoy to the point where he becomes a virtual shell of the offensive juggernaut people know him as. It also could make him doubt himself.

Ultimately at +300 I can already say Williams is worth a flier and if he is to go in any larger — as he gets bet down by those "experts" and casual public killing the juice — we can possibly get can't miss odds on him. Williams isn't just a specialist who requires a lucky shot, rather he has knockout power and submission grappling which present the 35-year-old Power-MMA product multiple paths to victory.

Undoubtably, in the future I believe that Duquesnoy will compete for a championship belt, but this may come as a flyweight or just down the road as a bantamweight once his body fills out. Nevertheless, at 23 he may be the next RDA or Pettis or other future great who loses their Octagon debut. At +300 I'm willing to see if Pat can play spoiler.
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I just watched pat. He certainly has a punchers chance but man he reacts horribly under fire! Beal got up easily both times he was taken down too. I have info from a reliable source that tom's tdd is rock solid too. Pat one fight in three years doesnt inspire confidence either. He does have an explosive uppercut he fires from the waist tho hit beal and the last guy he fought with it.
 
My girl Ashlee Evans Smith is going to dominate Vieira, already got her parlayed with someone else in my elite lock parlay.

Vieira can't hang with the likes of AES, she could barely hang with Faszholz. Vieira is a wrestler more than anything else, inactive on the ground, inactive on the feet, bad cardio, low level experience. AES is a better wrestler, active on top, powerful ground strikes, overall better striker, good cardio, more experience.
 
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MMA Goodfella said:
Here's a HL ?reel of Duquesnoy to help get those who don't know him better aquatinted:

Note the variety of strikes and explosion as to which he dives on a submission.



Also remember that most of these flghts that you are seeing here are of him between age 19 and 21 LOL
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Big difference in the big leagues
Hope he wins but I won't be betting it
 
I really like Rose here. I think KH is limited standing outside of her kicks and Rose can box her up using her length. The only td ive seen KH use is the old womens fav head and arm throw and Rose has solid tdd. Dont think anyone has taken her down since Esparza.
 
Sham5916910 said:
I really like Rose here. I think KH is limited standing outside of her kicks and Rose can box her up using her length. The only td ive seen KH use is the old womens fav head and arm throw and Rose has solid tdd. Dont think anyone has taken her down since Esparza.
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I like Rose too but I need -120, I think it can get there.
 
Sham5916910 said:
I really like Rose here. I think KH is limited standing outside of her kicks and Rose can box her up using her length. The only td ive seen KH use is the old womens fav head and arm throw and Rose has solid tdd. Dont think anyone has taken her down since Esparza.
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KH is the UFC golden child at the moment. The skeptical me would query some sort of decision favour if it goes the distance which i am sure it will. But i could be paranoid. My money is on Rose too. I'm hoping for KH to wear the hype for a decent dog bet on Rose last minute...
 
MMA Gambling Expert said:
My girl Ashlee Evans Smith is going to dominate Vieira, already got her parlayed with someone else in my elite lock parlay.

Vieira can't hang with the likes of AES, she could barely hang with Faszholz. Vieira is a wrestler more than anything else, inactive on the ground, inactive on the feet, bad cardio, low level experience. AES is a better wrestler, active on top, powerful ground strikes, overall better striker, good cardio, more experience.
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I was fortunate enough to snag her at -180. I figured she would be in the -230 range.
 
I understand the line is way off and UFC jitters exist, but stylistically Pat Williams seems like the perfect fight for Duquesnoy. The dude literally runs into the pocket with his chin up high and then backs away with no defense whatsoever. Tailor made for Tom's HL reel.

Also could be worth noting that the UFC tried to sign Tom when he was 19, four years ago. He turned them down as he wanted more fights before he hit the big show. He didn't want to come in lacking experience and get outgunned. So now in his own mind he is ready, and that could be telling about how he'll respond to the jitters.

Peeking back at his record, he only had four fights when he as 19 and was 4-0. Now he's 14-1.
 
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MMA Gambling Expert said:
My girl Ashlee Evans Smith is going to dominate Vieira, already got her parlayed with someone else in my elite lock parlay.

Vieira can't hang with the likes of AES, she could barely hang with Faszholz. Vieira is a wrestler more than anything else, inactive on the ground, inactive on the feet, bad cardio, low level experience. AES is a better wrestler, active on top, powerful ground strikes, overall better striker, good cardio, more experience.
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How? I havent watched tape yet on this and havent made my mind up on my double/treble for this event.
 
Renato Moicano is going to get his head taken clean off, does anyone here actually think he'll win? I think Jeremy is going to light him up, Moicano doesn't move his head at all, he likes to come forward, throws sloppy punches. Jeremy will find his chin easy. This is a big step down in competition for Jeremy, big step up for Moicano.
 
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