UFC Nashville: Cory Sandhagen vs. Robert Font, August 5

barcelos +180... what am i missing here? i cap this as even at worst for him?
 
Stat_Collector said:
2019 and a bjj guy back packing, he did well stopping clark and ion. he is a better overall grappler than Jacoby who couldn’t stop Cutalaba tds.
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Cutelaba wrestles him very well unto finish. Danilo Marques takes him down 2 times, who is a below average wrestler. The only problem for him (Jacoby) is the combination of pressure and power punchers like Khalil and Murzakanov... But Kennedy can't replicate that, precisely because he receives too many punches and prefers attacks through the central line.

If he goes for a takedown at all, it will be a big surprise for me.
 
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Marko Atanasovik said:
Cutelaba wrestles him very well unto finish. Danilo Marques takes him down 2 times, who is a below average wrestler. The only problem for him (Jacoby) is the combination of pressure and power punchers like Khalil and Murzakanov... But Kennedy can't replicate that, precisely because he receives too many punches and prefers attacks through the central line.

If he goes for a takedown at all, it will be a big surprise for me.
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But that is not what overpowering means. Over power, is holding a guy down and him being manhandled. No one has done that to Kennedy, he pops up fast when he gets taken down. Jacobi is a kick boxer who stuffs tds and prefers to throw mostly hands lately, he himself shoots but with less success. its not a strong lean but Kennedy is much closer to what a mixed martial artist is. He isn't a guy who just trades and strikes. He may not be exceptionally well in grappling, but it's there to use as a distraction to accommodate his striking.
 
Stat_Collector said:
That’s not what i’m saying. its a tool in his box he can use. Wrestling isn’t just takedowns , its clinch work, cagestalling. He submitted Clark to which is all a part of grappling. I don’t know why you guys dont get it. im not saying he is Khabib. but it’s there if he wants to keep Jacoby guessing. Even if he fails, its going to force Jacoby to defend and drop his hands. Kennedy doesn’t have to worry about Jacoby td at all. Its right or left hand.
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Ahh okay. If you're including clinching up and cage holding, Kennedy has shown he's somewhat capable at that. Fair.

I still don't think that's gonna play a big role, Jacoby is pretty good with his footwork and keeping distance when he wants to. But what you're saying makes more sense if cage stalling is part of what you meant. It's not really wrestling, but it's grappling and it's a way to have some control with little risk for him.
 
EndlessCritic said:
barcelos +180... what am i missing here? i cap this as even at worst for him?
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People probably have that brutal Umar KO at the top of their mind. Like @Captain Chesapeake said this might be a good live bet fight. Kyler starts fast and usually wins the first but drops off after that. He also hasn't fought in over a year, and his last fight was Rojo who's bottom of the barrel, Barcelos is a quality fighter and levels higher than that. Line does seem wide.
 
jnes said:
People probably have that brutal Umar KO at the top of their mind. Like @Captain Chesapeake said this might be a good live bet fight. Kyler starts fast and usually wins the first but drops off after that. He also hasn't fought in over a year, and his last fight was Rojo who's bottom of the barrel, Barcelos is a quality fighter and levels higher than that. Line does seem wide.
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Busted in may for ostarine in Nevada
 
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Stat_Collector said:
But that is not what overpowering means. Over power, is holding a guy down and him being manhandled. No one has done that to Kennedy, he pops up fast when he gets taken down. Jacobi is a kick boxer who stuffs tds and prefers to throw mostly hands lately, he himself shoots but with less success. its not a strong lean but Kennedy is much closer to what a mixed martial artist is. He isn't a guy who just trades and strikes. He may not be exceptionally well in grappling, but it's there to use as a distraction to accommodate his striking.
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Cutelaba had 9 takedowns but had the same control time as against Nzechukwu with whom he had 2 takedowns. When you're talking about scrambling ability, I don't remember that anyone even controlled Jacoby on the floor the whole fight you're referring to. You are slowly changing the narrative around this fight, which I don't like. You say that you need one fight to see if someone has the ability to wrestle, you didn't mention any of his positive things about wrestling.
 
jnes said:
People probably have that brutal Umar KO at the top of their mind. Like @Captain Chesapeake said this might be a good live bet fight. Kyler starts fast and usually wins the first but drops off after that. He also hasn't fought in over a year, and his last fight was Rojo who's bottom of the barrel, Barcelos is a quality fighter and levels higher than that. Line does seem wide.
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Meh,I don't wanna play Kyler but I don't wanna play Barcelos either.Not only the KO,he's 36 at bantam and lost before his last win to Victor Henry and Valuev.He was really good but obviously lost a step and is old.On the other hand Kyler should be priming now,training in MMA lab,should be improved,he could get a KO here easily
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Busted in may for ostarine in Nevada
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They must have reduced his suspension. I just did a quick search and the original articles say 6 months which means he obviously couldn't be fighting this weekend. The article did mention that the board's investigation showed it was almost surely a tainted supplement and not intentional. I'd assume that's why they reduced the suspension?

Either way, I'm not seeing the love for Barcelos here really. The Umar KO aside, he had dropped 2 of his previous 3 before that fight. And yeah Valiev is a talented guy but you can't tell me you wouldn't favor Phillips over Victor Henry. Phillips may fade a little in fights, but he's 28 vs 36 for Barcelos. At these lower weights, that's a MASSIVE edge to be that much younger. And we can't act like Phillips hasn't beaten anyone good. The win over Song is better than any win that Barcelos has (probably by a good margin).

-215 might be a LITTLE pricey, at -160 to -170 I'd be playing Kyler here. I'm waiting on Fanduel to release props, will be eyeing Kyler decision, fight goes distance props to see where they come out. I do think Phillips wins. Barcelos is no scrub at all, just don't see him beating a guy like Phillips at this point in each of their careers.
 
mkess101 said:
They must have reduced his suspension. I just did a quick search and the original articles say 6 months which means he obviously couldn't be fighting this weekend. The article did mention that the board's investigation showed it was almost surely a tainted supplement and not intentional. I'd assume that's why they reduced the suspension?

Either way, I'm not seeing the love for Barcelos here really. The Umar KO aside, he had dropped 2 of his previous 3 before that fight. And yeah Valiev is a talented guy but you can't tell me you wouldn't favor Phillips over Victor Henry. Phillips may fade a little in fights, but he's 28 vs 36 for Barcelos. At these lower weights, that's a MASSIVE edge to be that much younger. And we can't act like Phillips hasn't beaten anyone good. The win over Song is better than any win that Barcelos has (probably by a good margin).

-215 might be a LITTLE pricey, at -160 to -170 I'd be playing Kyler here. I'm waiting on Fanduel to release props, will be eyeing Kyler decision, fight goes distance props to see where they come out. I do think Phillips wins. Barcelos is no scrub at all, just don't see him beating a guy like Phillips at this point in each of their careers.
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Card is in Nashville
 
Marko Atanasovik said:
Cutelaba had 9 takedowns but had the same control time as against Nzechukwu with whom he had 2 takedowns. When you're talking about scrambling ability, I don't remember that anyone even controlled Jacoby on the floor the whole fight you're referring to. You are slowly changing the narrative around this fight, which I don't like. You say that you need one fight to see if someone has the ability to wrestle, you didn't mention any of his positive things about wrestling.
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He submitted a wrestler and he has better td defense as evidence in the Cutelaba fight. And he dominated a grappler in Karl Robertson which you seem to neglect. there is more than enough info to support the claim that Kennedy can grapple better than Jacoby . Jacoby himself attempts to grapple but in the wrong time , as he was losing his last fight down 2 rounds and was hammering his opponent, did the low iq move and decided to wrestle, i can easily see him trying to td Kennedy and getting himself choked.
 
Stat_Collector said:
He submitted a wrestler and he has better td defense as evidence in the Cutelaba fight. And he dominated a grappler in Karl Robertson which you seem to neglect. there is more than enough info to support the claim that Kennedy can grapple better than Jacoby . Jacoby himself attempts to grapple but in the wrong time , as he was losing his last fight down 2 rounds and was hammering his opponent, did the low iq move and decided to wrestle, i can easily see him trying to td Kennedy and getting himself choked.
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Wrestling defense also includes scrambling ability, which Jacoby showed that he possesses more than Kennedy in the fight against Cutelaba. You are spinning the same story in vain. He got a sub against Clark, but it came out more as an anti-wrestling technique, like all tall and lenght fighters, they use front headlock submissions and Jacoby is a fighter who does not prefer in-pocket fights and some kind of takedowns. Because you're talking about one thing, let's leave it to Saturday to prove your theory about wrestling.

I say that he will have under 1.5 takedowns and under 2 minutes of control.
 
Marko Atanasovik said:
Wrestling defense also includes scrambling ability, which Jacoby showed that he possesses more than Kennedy in the fight against Cutelaba. You are spinning the same story in vain. He got a sub against Clark, but it came out more as an anti-wrestling technique, like all tall and lenght fighters, they use front headlock submissions and Jacoby is a fighter who does not prefer in-pocket fights and some kind of takedowns. Because you're talking about one thing, let's leave it to Saturday to prove your theory about wrestling.

I say that he will have under 1.5 takedowns and under 2 minutes of control.
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If they had a bjj match Kennedy would be a -400 favorite and he would win . Its more than takedowns he knows how to hold down a bjj expert like Karl and tko him with elbows. Tapping out Clark who was a credential college wrestler is no easy feat. These are things that Jacoby would never do. Its not just tallness. He has bjj skills and better depth when it comes to grappling over Jacoby.

We don't know what Kennedy's gameplan will be, but neglecting an aspect of his gameplan that he has shown to use in the past, while not the norm, is still relevant.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I’m not sure tbh, but it is Nashville where we don’t see much mma
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Yeah IDK either. I remember there was the thing with Jon Jones being suspended in NV so they moved the fight to Cali or something and it was a controversy that they weren't recognizing the suspension. But after that I don't remember what exactly came of it.
 
Stat_Collector said:
If they had a bjj match Kennedy would be a -400 favorite and he would win . Its more than takedowns he knows how to hold down a bjj expert like Karl and tko him with elbows. Tapping out Clark who was a credential college wrestler is no easy feat. These are things that Jacoby would never do. Its not just tallness. He has bjj skills and better depth when it comes to grappling over Jacoby.

We don't know what Kennedy's gameplan will be, but neglecting an aspect of his gameplan that he has shown to use in the past, while not the norm, is still relevant.
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You see what it is about, you are trying to twist the story. Kennedy is of course the big favorite in pure BJJ, but we are talking about wrestling takedown game, tdd, scrambling ability that will decide whether the fight will take place in stand up or on the floor. You should know that some finishes are simply due to a clash of styles where the opponent needs to take risks in order to reach the goal, which was also the case with Clark. I'm not diminishing Nzechukwu's victory, he closed that guillotine according to regulations, I'm just trying to explain to you that it will be difficult against Jacoby in that situation because he is a totally different style of fighter.
 
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Stat_Collector said:
If they had a bjj match Kennedy would be a -400 favorite and he would win . Its more than takedowns he knows how to hold down a bjj expert like Karl and tko him with elbows. Tapping out Clark who was a credential college wrestler is no easy feat. These are things that Jacoby would never do. Its not just tallness. He has bjj skills and better depth when it comes to grappling over Jacoby.

We don't know what Kennedy's gameplan will be, but neglecting an aspect of his gameplan that he has shown to use in the past, while not the norm, is still relevant.
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Dude, you bring so much good stuff to this forum but you cannot say stuff like Karl Roberson is a "bjj expert" LOL. Dude is a kickboxer. He's athletic and figured out some grappling along the way, but 4 of his 6 losses are by sub. He has 4 sub wins because he's strong as he'll and isn't afraid to go all out for the sub if he sees an opportunity, but he is far, FAR from being a bjj expert relative to other UFC fighters.

Like...anyone that knows even a little about grappling has seen the positional mistakes the guy makes. I wouldn't even say he's above average TBH. @Tebowned can weigh in too here...but imo adding in stuff like this undermines whatever other relevant stuff you might be saying.

I really don't think anyone is arguing that Kennedy doesn't have some sort of advantage on the mat. I agree with you, he does. Jacoby poses little to no threat there. The question is whether Kennedy can get it there or if he'll even try. He's only taken down Roberson in his entire career in the UFC. That's it. Nobody else.

The cage stalling is a factor that you pointed out earlier. That's probably your best point in terns of the grappling, that Kennedy may be able to get some control time and wear on Jacoby there if Jacoby can't keep distance.
 
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