UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje Official Bets

[Ryan Kelly]

Perez -300 3u
Borg -245 2u
Branch +110 1u
Gaethje +115 1u
Holland -200 1u
Moraes +125 1u
Craig +155 0.7u
KK -140 1u
MJ -110 0.7u
Pearson DEC +535 0.25u
Aguilar KO/TKO +495 0.25u

Good luck fellas!

Ended up -2.5u. Second card in a row I’ve lost $ on. Lol @ my David branch action. Sheesh. Congrats to all the winners.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Gaethje ML - 3u for 3.5u
Hermansson ML - 2u for 1.61u
Johnson ML - 4u for 4.05u*
Emmett KO - 0.25u for 1.19u
KK ML - 0.5u for 1.19u*
KK Decision - 0.5u for 0.59u
Waterson Sub - 0.37u for 3.19u
Craig ML - 5u for 5.19u
Craig Sub - 2u for 5.25u
Moraes ML - 1u for 1.55u
Moraes +3.5 points - 1u for 0.61u
JAguilar ML - 0.25u for 0.7u
JAguilar +3.5 points - 1u for 0.71u
Pearson +3.5 points - 0.5u for 0.45u
Meerschaert ML - 1.5u for 2.6u
Meerschaert Sub - 0.25u for 0.8u
Kenney ML - 1u for 2.5u
Moroz Decision - 0.5u for 1.05u
Perez ML - 3u for 2.22u*
Perez Sub - 0.25u for 0.91u


11.39u in posted plays above and 15.92u after siding with KAguilar as planned, being part of the steam that brought Hermansson down (one of my books wasn't keeping up so I got him for a nice price late), and getting in a little more on Gaethje. But bled some on poor live/pre-fight bet choices on KK and MJ.

Paul Craig and Diego Sanchez are my heroes. If they still sold those gaudy, golden lettered, Affliction, old-school walk-out tees I'd honestly consider one of each of theirs.

If this card was in Vegas, my Moraes +3.5 definitely hits, Meerschaert probably hits and possibly JAguilar +3.5 hits. That said, Borg probably wins his fight. The judges were god awful. Glad there were lots of finishes to end the card instead of them being allowed to taint too much else.

The MJ flatline was a big swing but good on Josh. Losing mid-fight really doesn't bother me all that much. It feels pure and it's why I love this sport. Judge robberies make me crazy though.

Have two unsettled on ohmbet, $7.55 each returns $30.20 each, labelled "Will Justin Gaethje or Edson Barboza be awarded by "Performance of the night bonus?". JG-EB got FOTN and my main man favourite Scot Paul Craig got POTN along with Hermansson. So I fully expect ohmbet to grade those a loss on account of the word 'Performance.' Whatever, we'll see.

Very happy with my original setup and subsequent plays. Excited for a weekend off coming up as well. Hope you all made out ok!

 

[Cockadoodle]

Gaethje ML 2u for 2.2u
Fight starts r4 2u for 3.06u

Branch ML 2u for 1.96u

Johnson ML 2u for 1.90u
FGTD 2u for 1.46u

Waterson ML 2u for 2.42u
Waterson Sub .5u for 6u

Craig ML 2u for 3.96u

Yusuff Dec 1u for 2.1u
Yusuff Sub .5u for 6.5u
FGTD 2u for 1.74u

Barzola ML 2u for 2.1u

Meerschaert ML 2u for 3.92u

Kenney ML 2u for 4.64u

Perez ML 2u for .96u
Perez Sub 1u for 3.5u

Feeling like a lot of my bets are 50/50 this week, hopefully land on the right side of the ledger.
Good luck all!

Ended up 4u today, The MJ KO kinda put a dampner on things as it was an 7.5u swing but no complaints. Bad judging decisions netted out. Only bet I really wanted to change was the Branch bet, but decided to leave it.
Made 8u yesterday on Janay (thanks Jim) and 4u on Girtz for 12u so all in all a pretty good weekend. Hope everyone did well

 

[AmericanBeauty]

150 Gaethje 2.10
100 Moraes 2.35
Hoped people would juice Edson but didn’t happened.
Good luck to everyone

 

[ApplesVild]

I have a weird little parlay of Hermansion, Agular, Holland and Kasey Kenny - £10 free bet returned £150, and then two separate bets on Kasey Kenny of £10 each cash... In total I'm up £100 for the night. Wish I had more faith in Hermanson earlie, he fought an amazing fight but I had no faith and hedged a little on branch.. I would have been better for putting that money on Justin to finish and cashed out haha

 

[Bastaille]

8/9 one of my best results so far winning over 2k so on to the next one. Thanks to piglord for calling the girtz fight.

 

[2bet]

̶2̶̶u̶̶ ̶̶̶B̶o̶̶r̶̶g̶̶ ̶̶ ̶̶1̶̶,̶̶6̶̶5̶̶ ̶(̶t̶̶o̶̶ ̶̶c̶̶l̶̶o̶̶s̶̶e̶̶ ̶̶a̶̶ ̶̶p̶̶a̶̶r̶̶l̶̶a̶̶y̶)
2u Hermansson 1,81
2u Emmett 2,05
2u Waterson 2,30
2u Moroz 2,40
2u Gaethje 2,43
2u Moraes 2,60
2u Craig 2,90

+13,78u
almost a clean sweep with my posted picks.
In the end I even won a bit more than that because I also got money out of my Borg parlay (it was a push, I had bet on Borg before his new match-up).

I had spontanously made two further bets, one squarer than the other, which cancelled each other out moneywise:
Koreshkov + Strauss + Perez, which was a win
and
Holland/Maerschaert ITD + Barboza/Gaethje ITD, which was a loss

I have already made more money this year than in the whole last year, it's incredible. My current ROI for 2019 is 24,90%

I am so tempted to increase my unit size, but I have sworn myself to not do that for another 3 months. I do not wanna crash and burn.

Gotta be realistic here, I have to expect to make losses in the upcoming events.
I would not bet on myself to keep that successful streak going (well, it would depend on the odds obviously <Lmaoo>)

Actually I do keep track of things like the number of underdogs winning per event, which is way higher than I had initially thought. 7 this time, 6 last time, 4 before that... never be too sure on those favourites!!!

I hope everybody came through alright, let's enjoy the break before the next event

 

[chemmy]

2 units on Gaethje @ +115
2 units on Branch @ +116
1 unit on Casey Kenney @ +260
2.18 units on Barzola @ -109
3.14 units on Alex Perez @ -314

+2.72 units

In hindsight Branch was a bad bet even though we didn’t really get to see exactly how they matched up. I underestimated Aguilar’s TDD / overestimated Barzola’s TDs and was fortunate to have the Casey decision go my way.

 

[ApplesVild]

I needed Barzola to win for a 9 man parlay to come in... Profit over all so I'm still happy.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

Craig @ 2.85, 4u
Not Nzechukwu by KO @ 2.05, 1.5u
Craig vs. Nzechukwu fgtd @ 4.15, 0.5u

Branch @ 2.08, 2.5u

Emmet @ 1.97, 2.5u

Moraes @ 2.45, 2.5u

And, finally, to put my money where my mouth is:
Barboza vs Gaethje fgtd @ 5, 1u

+4.9u for the night. Bets on Craig vs. Nzechukwu are really the only ones I'm entirely happy with. I guess I'm not really angry with the bet on Moraes at those odds either. Though the Gaethje vs Barboza fgtd bet probably was terrible, I'm interested in trying to continue pondering on betting possibilities where there is an obvious outcome. Seems that cognitive biases might pull in different directions, not sure which are most likely to dominate...

 

[sonofjay817]

I started off bad. My first two parlays saw the first match of both to go the wrong way. I had Mazo in one and Borg on the other. I was feeling dejected and wondering why providence was frowning on me. The FIRST match of both parlays go south. It must be a sign my mojo is gone. Then suddenly providence's frown turned to a smile. My biggest gamble of the event was on Marina Rodriguez. She was a strong favorite so I didn't stand to win a huge amount but the amount I risked was very significant for me, foolish even. If she had lost too I would have been totally undone. The amount I won on her got back what I lost on one of the parlays. Next was a parlay I had on Holland and Yusuff. Boom. Nice win there. Now I'm close to even again. Then landed a prop bet on Paul Craig to get the submission that I had placed sort of last minute during the event. I'm getting a bit bolder now and I've got a feeling in my gut so I place another last minute parlay bet on Waterson/Gaethje. Waterson wins her match and I pull my account up and my balance has grown again. At this point I'm confused because Gaethje hasn't yet fought. Then I see that I'd placed a straight bet on Waterson earlier in the week that I'd totally forgotten about. Things have really turned around! It ended up being a great night; about 20% gain on my bankroll. If Mazo hadn't of been upset in her match, I'd have cashed in big time so that one sticks in my crawl but I should count my blessings cashing in on three dogs and a couple of parlays.

Edit: I forgot to mention, I'd initially put 300 on Michael Johnson but got cold feet in him and bet the other side to cancel it out. Whew...close one.
Edit #2: was way off. Increased the old bankroll by 40%

 

[null]

It was shaping up to be a reasonably successful night until Michael Johnson got caught late in round 3 right after I live bet him. I thought Edson Barboza shouldn't have brawled like that against the cage with Justin Gaethje. And I really should have had some Gaethje KO or more fight does not go distance hedges. Ended up with a loss of 8.20 units only mollified by the fact that I won significantly more on Bellator 219 the night before.

UFC on ESPN 2 Results Risk $4,946.55

Edson Barboza (-125) vs Justin Gaethje $250.00 for $200.00= -$250.00
Edson Barboza wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+130) $77.50 for $100.75= -$77.50
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje starts round 2 (-325) $162.50 for $50.00= -$162.50
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje Over 1½ (-169) $169.49 for $100.00= -$169.49
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje Over 1½ (-190) $95.00 for $50.00= -$95.00
Edson Barboza wins in round 4 (+1800) $20.00 for $360.00= -$20.00
Edson Barboza wins in round 5 (+2800) $20.00 for $560.00= -$20.00
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje fight ends in round 3 (+430) $25.00 for $107.50= -$25.00
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje fight ends in round 4 (+615) $25.00 for $153.75= -$25.00
Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje fight ends in round 5 (+935) $25.00 for $233.75= -$25.00

Jack Hermansson (-125) vs David Branch $250.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Jack Hermansson wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+200) $50.00 for $100.00= -$50.00
Jack Hermansson/David Branch Under 2½ (-124) $124.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Michael Johnson (-105) vs Josh Emmett $210.00 for $200.00= -$210.00
Michael Johnson wins by TKO/KO (+260) $40.00 for $104.00= -$40.00
Josh Emmett wins inside distance (+320) $65.00 for $208.00= $208.00
Michael Johnson/Josh Emmett Under 2½ (+142) $100.00 for $142.00= -$100.00
Live In-Play: Michael Johnson (-154) vs Josh Emmett $307.69 for $200.00= -$307.69

Michelle Waterson (+140) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz $200.00 for $280.00= $280.00
Michelle Waterson wins by submission (+600) $25.00 for $150.00= -$25.00

Paul Craig (+150) vs Kennedy Nzechukwu $100.00 for $150.00= $150.00
Paul Craig wins by submission (+315) $40.00 for $126.00= $126.00
Paul Craig/Kennedy Nzechukwu Over 1½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Sheymon Moraes +3½ points (-160) vs Sodiq Yusuff $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00
Sheymon Moraes/Sodiq Yusuff Over 2½ (-122) $122.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Jessica Aguilar +3½ points (-170) vs Marina Rodriguez $85.00 for $50.00= -$85.00

Ross Pearson +3½ points (-120) vs Desmond Green $120.00 for $100.00= -$120.00
Ross Pearson/Desmond Green Over 2½ (-333 $250.00 for $75.00= -$250.00
Ross Pearson/Desmond Green Over 2½ (-350) $262.50 for $75.00= -$262.50

Enrique Barzola (-115) vs Kevin Aguilar $114.94 for $100.00= -$114.94
Enrique Barzola scorecards = no action (+215) $100.00 for $215.00= Cancelled

Kevin Holland/Gerald Meerschaert won't go 3 round distance (-225) $225.00 for $100.00= -$225.00

Casey Kenney (+250) vs Ray Borg $200.00 for $500.00= $500.00
Casey Kenney scorecards = no action (+220) $100.00 for $220.00= Cancelled
Casey Kenney/Ray Borg Under 2½ (+215) $100.00 for $215.00= -$100.00

Sabina Mazo/Maryna Moroz Over 2½ (-370) $370.37 for $100.00= $100.00

Alex Perez -3½ points (-175) vs Mark De La Rosa $131.25 for $75.00= $75.00
Alex Perez wins by TKO/KO (+380) $20.00 for $76.00= -$20.00
Alex Perez wins inside distance (+145) $30.00 for $43.50= -$30.00

Parlay:
Alex Perez (-360) vs Mark De La Rosa + Edson Barboza/Justin Gaethje won't go 5 round distance (-515) $400.00 for $210.36= $210.36
-----

Total Loss= -$820.26

 

[t6p]

4u Gaethje +130 +5.2u

1.25u Hermansson -120 +1.04u
1u Hermansson NSC -160 +0.625u
0.2u Hermansson DEC +450 -0.2u
0.05u Hermansson RD3 +1250 -0.05u

1.25u Johnson -105 -1.25u
0.25u Johnson DEC +260 -0.25u

1.25u Kowalkiewicz -145 -1.25u
0.5u Kowalkiewicz DEC +105 -0.5u
0.05u Kowalkiewicz RD3 +2150 -0.05u

0.75u Craig NSC +165 +1.24u

0.2u K.Aguilar KO +495 -0.2u
0.05u K.Aguilar RD3 +1600 -0.05u

0.2u De la Rosa SUB +860 -0.2u

0.1u Perez/Kowalkiewicz/Johnson/Hermansson/Gaethje +1452 -0.1u
0.05u Perez/Meerchaert/K.Aguilar/Moraes/Craig/Kowalkiewicz/Johnson/Hermansson/Gaethje +45862 -0.05u

Added:
1u Moroz +150 +1.5u
0.5u Kenney +210 +1.05u
0.5u K.Aguilar NSC -205 0u

NET: +6.51u

I was at this event live and decided to add a few small plays at the last second, which luckily worked out and made up for some of the Johnson and KK loses. Overall very happy with the result though. My only regret is the KK play. I really felt she'd be able to bully Waterson, but that read turned out to be completely off.

After a brutal start to 2019, this was my third straight winning event. Feels good to get some confidence back.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

4u Gaethje +130 +5.2u

1.25u Hermansson -120 +1.04u
1u Hermansson NSC -160 +0.625u
0.2u Hermansson DEC +450 -0.2u
0.05u Hermansson RD3 +1250 -0.05u

1.25u Johnson -105 -1.25u
0.25u Johnson DEC +260 -0.25u

1.25u Kowalkiewicz -145 -1.25u
0.5u Kowalkiewicz DEC +105 -0.5u
0.05u Kowalkiewicz RD3 +2150 -0.05u

0.75u Craig NSC +165 +1.24u

0.2u K.Aguilar KO +495 -0.2u
0.05u K.Aguilar RD3 +1600 -0.05u

0.2u De la Rosa SUB +860 -0.2u

0.1u Perez/Kowalkiewicz/Johnson/Hermansson/Gaethje +1452 -0.1u
0.05u Perez/Meerchaert/K.Aguilar/Moraes/Craig/Kowalkiewicz/Johnson/Hermansson/Gaethje +45862 -0.05u

Added:
1u Moroz +150 +1.5u
0.5u Kenney +210 +1.05u
0.5u K.Aguilar NSC -205 0u

NET: +6.51u

I was at this event live and decided to add a few small plays at the last second, which luckily worked out and made up for some of the Johnson and KK loses. Overall very happy with the result though. My only regret is the KK play. I really felt she'd be able to bully Waterson, but that read turned out to be completely off.

After a brutal start to 2019, this was my third straight winning event. Feels good to get some confidence back.

Suck it bookies! T is back in town!

 

[Oblivian]

Broke even on this one. This was a good example of a rollercoaster night for me. Borg losing hurt, but then Aguilar pulling through was great. Pearson +3.5 loses next. Moraes looks like he may cash, then bam, he gets clocked. I end up pretty large on Craig/KZ inside the distance parlayed with Gaethje/Barb ITD. I'm shitting my pants and then Craig pulls off the triangle. I cash on Waterson and the Johnson bet is looking good, then the big KO comes. Herm cashes which has me sitting in a position where I have a pretty good night if Barb wins ITD, but I break even if Gaethje wins ITD.