UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje

[Naught2Sixty]

Ahem, we have another thread dedicated to this fight thank you very much.

Jk, I miss Ez

Lol yeah and I'm amazed at the threads the mods move here from the heavies instead of just wastelanding them. RIP EZ the GOAT.

 

[zeckdo]

Pearson at +355 is crazy. Green should be favorite, but not this wide. Pearson isn't totally shot yet. His most recent fight with Makdessi wasn't that bad. His chin and cardio looked good, kept coming forward the whole fight, and landed some good punches on Makdessi. He was outstruck all fight, but Green isn't nearly as good of a striker as Makdessi. Green is pretty low volume, and with Pearson marching forward the whole fight, I could see Pearson making this a close decision. What's a good fight of Pearon's to watch where his TDD is shown? If Green is able to mix up takedowns, he should win much more comfortably.

 

[Johnny Bones Jones]

He doesn't look to be hot shit if you look through his fights from the recent past. Just not the type of destroyer they're trying to make him out to be.

Craig's wrestling and performance against Jimmy Crute is actually flattering now that Crute has moved on and crushed Alvey in less then a round. He held down Crute for the entirety of the 2nd and had to of won the round.

Just re-watched the craig vs crute fight and made the following notes:
1) His double leg takedown entry is average, I didn't see any or few setups to his takedown attempts.
2) He barely threw any punches throughout the fight ( I count maybe 10-12 at most)
3) He does not engage in any sort of ground or pound while at guard or half guard, I understand submissions are his thing but at least hurt your opponent with some punches to the stomach or head.
4) Not sure if Crute's ground game is that good that he was able to sweep Craig so many times or Craig's top game just isn't that good

Considering Kennedy is southpaw and Craig likes to do his double leg takedown entry with his head to the left of his opponent and with no setup, this smells like a recipe for disaster for a Kennedy KO by a kick or punches. Even in the Andre Kavanaugh fight, Kennedy only got taken down after a failed jumping knee strike that Andre caught for a double leg takedown.

I think Kennedy uses his 6 inch reach advantage to keep Craig at a distance and when Craig goes for a takedown, he will get hit by a kick or punches that knocks him out.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Just re-watched the craig vs crute fight and made the following notes:
1) His double leg takedown entry is average, I didn't see any or few setups to his takedown attempts.
2) He barely threw any punches throughout the fight ( I count maybe 10-12 at most)
3) He does not engage in any sort of ground or pound while at guard or half guard, I understand submissions are his thing but at least hurt your opponent with some punches to the stomach or head.
4) Not sure if Crute's ground game is that good that he was able to sweep Craig so many times or Craig's top game just isn't that good

Considering Kennedy is southpaw and Craig likes to do his double leg takedown entry with his head to the left of his opponent and with no setup, this smells like a recipe for disaster for a Kennedy KO by a kick or punches. Even in the Andre Kavanaugh fight, Kennedy only got taken down after a failed jumping knee strike that Andre caught for a double leg takedown.

I think Kennedy uses his 6 inch reach advantage to keep Craig at a distance and when Craig goes for a takedown, he will get hit by a kick or punches that knocks him out.

Why you watching tape for this instead of preparing for your fight with Merreta, JBJ?

 

[Caicara]

My wife (35 years old) and I (40) have been trying for 2 years to have a child and the heartbreak that happens every month when we find out she isn't pregnant is devastating. I don't wish it upon anyone. Its disheartening to see so many people make jokes about it.

On topic : KK is gonna get subbed- Hit that +400 Watterson ITD prop yo.

I'm sorry to hear that

 

[TrueAscension]

Thank you all for the thoughtful responses gents. Sorry to derail.

Re the Craig fight, I see much more experience under the big lights for the Scotsman and I think the big Nigerian may gas after a round or get frustrated and push too much if he's not finding a home. Gotta go with the vet here who has some respectable wins/losses on his record and really needs a W to stay relevant. I totally get that the tiny room with Dana present in the contender's series will give a man jitters but imagine walking out into a full arena of people with all of the lights. I think it could be too much for this guy though I do believe he's got a bright future ahead of him.

Gotta go Paul Craig here

 

[LiquidNuke]

Thank you all for the thoughtful responses gents. Sorry to derail.

Re the Craig fight, I see much more experience under the big lights for the Scotsman and I think the big Nigerian may gas after a round or get frustrated and push too much if he's not finding a home. Gotta go with the vet here who has some respectable wins/losses on his record and really needs a W to stay relevant. I totally get that the tiny room with Dana present in the contender's series will give a man jitters but imagine walking out into a full arena of people with all of the lights. I think it could be too much for this guy though I do believe he's got a bright future ahead of him.

Gotta go Paul Craig here

Why are you so confident in Waterson subbing KK? Curious on what's forming that lean.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Thank you all for the thoughtful responses gents. Sorry to derail.

Re the Craig fight, I see much more experience under the big lights for the Scotsman and I think the big Nigerian may gas after a round or get frustrated and push too much if he's not finding a home. Gotta go with the vet here who has some respectable wins/losses on his record and really needs a W to stay relevant. I totally get that the tiny room with Dana present in the contender's series will give a man jitters but imagine walking out into a full arena of people with all of the lights. I think it could be too much for this guy though I do believe he's got a bright future ahead of him.

Gotta go Paul Craig here

I get the Craig play at these odds, but he was probably 1 second away from getting cut if we assume, in that alternate universe, he still gets booked with Crute and loses.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

@mkess101 you got them prop leans under your sleeve breh?

 

[Soccer Steve]

@piglord any chance you could hook us up with Barboza via knee or kick ko?

 

[ill800]

Surprised those on KK haven't mentioned the fact she's about 6 months removed from being ktfo by the anabolic powerhouse Andrade.

It's relevant imo. How relevant? Idk. Not many 115ers are winning via KO with punches. Sometimes a womans athletic ability can fall off a cliff from one fight to the next. Am I saying that's gonna happen? No, of course not, I have no evidence. It is something to take into consideration though, isn't it? Do I ask my self questions a lot and answer them? Yes. Yes I do.

And the fact that she’s been rocked by felice herrig in a fight where she pulled guard. Also taken down and instasubbed by gadelha

 

[Caicara]

And the fact that she’s been rocked by felice herrig in a fight where she pulled guard. Also taken down and instasubbed by gadelha

Herrig is stronger than Waterson and has improved a lot recently.
Gadelha is a tank and has very good takedowns.

Going with KK Dec here.

 

[mkess101]

@mkess101 you got them prop leans under your sleeve breh?

What's up homie? Here's what I see at first glance:

Green dec is worth some juice but man I'd love to see -140ish vs -183 where it is now. I think it's overwhelmingly the most likely outcome as he's too fast for Pearson at this stage yet never sits down on his punches. I'd keep a really close eye on it hoping the line improves a little and then pull the trigger. I'd actually be pretty surprised if it's not a lopsided dec win for Green. His -3.5 line will be way more expensive but I don't see him finishing.

I don't see props for Borg/Kenney? Borg -3.5 is one I'd watch, I think he'll dominate Kenney.

Meerschart dec at +900 (!) has to be worth a small play. The rationale being that while Holland likely wins, IF the fight is competitive and Gerald does pull the upset it's likely by winning a close decision. Holland showed how incredibly tough and durable he is vs Santos. I don't see a finish by Meerschart happening at all. So taking a stab at his dec line at these crazy odds makes sense to me, just risking a tiny amount.

Even though it's a Flyweight fight (always gives me pause when predicting a finish), I like De La Rosa/Perez DNGD. Perez is kind of a madman, he goes for it nonstop. I think sytlistically this fight is gonna be mostly balls out (be it strking or looking for finishes with subs). At basically evens I like this play, I think it ends in a finish more times than not.

Everything on the ME looks to be priced about right so far from what I see. Maybe take a look at rd 2 finishing props on both guys. I say that because I think it's likely this fight looks like most of Gaethje's fights where he both takes and delivers a ton of damage in rd 1 and then it just comes down to whether he or Barboza have enough left to finish the other guy off in rd 2. So maybe looking at the u2.5 when it's realeased too if odds are good. I don't see this one going on as long as Gaethje/Poirier.

I may take another look once full props are out if I remember but that's what I've got for now!

 

[Naught2Sixty]

@mkess101 Appreciate the input fam. Agree on Green. He's got all the advantages on Pearson. Athleticism, youth, speed. Doesn't seem all that dangerous tho. Dude had a rough 2018 though. Car crash that killed a couple of people and all that. Don't know how he's gonna show up. I'll keep my hard earned dollar away from this fight.

Borg/Kenney just got announced a day or two ago so I'm not surprised theres no props and probably wont see then until Friday I'd imagine.

I'm on GM3 but I hate my play here. In 38 fights GM3 has gone the distance 3 times lol his lone decision loss to Smilin' Sam. +900 is worth a flyer I suppose but I think the standup is probably a wash for Holland and the grounding fighting will me largely competitive. Really not banking on this hitting the cards.

I don't have an opinion on DLR/Perez.

I said earlier in the thread I lean Barboza (probably by body kick tko) but I don't wanna desk with the sweat that JG will bring me. I might take the under if it's at 2.5. I doubt Edson employs the touch touch touch strategy to JG DP was hitting him with and nearly got broken himself. This is one to watch IMO. Leave the money off the table and enjoy the violence.

 

[Soccer Steve]

He doesn't look to be hot shit if you look through his fights from the recent past. Just not the type of destroyer they're trying to make him out to be.

Craig's wrestling and performance against Jimmy Crute is actually flattering now that Crute has moved on and crushed Alvey in less then a round. He held down Crute for the entirety of the 2nd and had to of won the round.

Yeah.... After watching some vids this is almost Craig's fight to lose, if I could be so bold. This Nz guy is not good. Certainly there's good, good value on Craig here.

 

[Soccer Steve]

For all the masochists in here, Mazo's second last fight:
https://ok.ru/video/713380858390

An NSFL warning would be nice next time.

 

[Card]

 

[Card]

Gaethje Highlight from reddit

Spoiler

 

[Card]

 

[OutRun]

Same... On paper Nzechukwu has champion statistics... an 83 inch reach, but he's so prone to coasting and not throwing much. I was thinking of playing the fight to go the distance because if Nzechukwu is content to jab and throw a few right hands a round while essentially doing nothing but moving, what is Craig going to do about it besides get outstruck?

Take him down pass the guard and sub? Full disclosure idgaf about this fight so I didn't watch tape on the new guy.