UFC on ESPN+ 30: Kattar v Ige

The other problem with Ige here is that while he's durable, way too often his entries are just mad rushes into the pocket with little regard for defense. He kinda relies on his opponent looking to avoid his rush rather than counter. But Kattar has lightning quick hands and is a super accurate counter striker. Ige may just run straight into a hard counter and get hurt that way.
 
I'm convinced Molly whoops Santos.

mkess101 said:
The other problem with Ige here is that while he's durable, way too often his entries are just mad rushes into the pocket with little regard for defense. He kinda relies on his opponent looking to avoid his rush rather than counter. But Kattar has lightning quick hands and is a super accurate counter striker. Ige may just run straight into a hard counter and get hurt that way.
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so glad we have mkess back lol
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Stephens, one of the most legendarily tough, durable fighters in MMA history, who has been stopped 3 times by knockout in almost 50 fights across 15 years despite facing a litany of big strikers and massively larger opponents is way less durable than Ige, who was nearly killed by Barboza a fight ago and was being badly hurt and battered by freaking Jordan Griffin of all people.

Even if Ige survives 2.5 agonizing rounds against Kattar (which is possible, just not likely), logic like this is going to lead to anti-value.

Incidentally, you know who else was never knocked out before facing Kattar? Chris Fishgold. While I consider Ige the better overall fighter, I rate Fishgold's defense as better.
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so you’re saying you’re going big on the under.
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
so you’re saying you’re going big on the under.
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Ahh man I hope nobody does that either haha. There are way better spots on the card. Hell even better bets in the fight itself imo (although I'm waiting on one prop that's yet to be released yet).
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Kattar is a "slow starter" after knocking out Lamas and Fishgold in round 1, and then finishing Stephens halfway in round 2? And we're expecting the same Ige who was repeatedly brutalized and hurt by Barbosa's hands for the first 2 rounds to somehow survive against Kattar's with any regularity?

Betting that Kattar-Ige goes over 2.5 rounds or starts round 4 is poor at evens, nevermind any minus numbers.
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You raise some good points. I have Kattar winning regardless. I retract my earlier comment lol
 
mkess101 said:
The other problem with Ige here is that while he's durable, way too often his entries are just mad rushes into the pocket with little regard for defense. He kinda relies on his opponent looking to avoid his rush rather than counter. But Kattar has lightning quick hands and is a super accurate counter striker. Ige may just run straight into a hard counter and get hurt that way.
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I’m not saying I don’t agree, simply that this is a 5 round fight. I don’t see Ige blitzing unintelligently right from the start. I see him taking his time trying to kickbox with Kattar for the first couple rounds. I believe Ige thinks he can win on the feet so he’ll test those waters first.

I’m confident Ige is durable enough to survive 2.5 rounds and I’m very confident Kattar is in no rush to end this fight quickly.

Also, Kattar hasn’t finished anyone who’s ranked
Inside the top 10 (Stephens might’ve been ranked 9-10 so I could be wrong here) and has only gone to decisions with those fighters (Lost to Zabit and lost a decision to Moicano).
 
I will say I played Kattar itd at -105. I think there's value, even with Ige being durable. I played Kattar Rd 4 and Rd 5 too.

Ige has never been in a 5 rounder. His cardio looks fine, but he's outclassed standing and 25 minutes is a LONG ass time to survive eating shots from a guy like Kattar.
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
I’m not saying I don’t agree, simply that this is a 5 round fight. I don’t see Ige blitzing unintelligently right from the start. I see him taking his time trying to kickbox with Kattar for the first couple rounds. I believe Ige thinks he can win on the feet so he’ll test those waters first.

I’m confident Ige is durable enough to survive 2.5 rounds and I’m very confident Kattar is in no rush to end this fight quickly.

Also, Kattar hasn’t finished anyone who’s ranked
Inside the top 10 (Stephens might’ve been ranked 9-10 so I could be wrong here) and has only gone to decisions with those fighters (Lost to Zabit and lost a decision to Moicano).
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Ige may take his time, but he's used those blitzes early in fights before. Hell he did it in Rd 1 in his last fight vs Edson.
 
mkess101 said:
I will say I played Kattar itd at -105. I think there's value, even with Ige being durable. I played Kattar Rd 4 and Rd 5 too.

Ige has never been in a 5 rounder. His cardio looks fine, but he's outclassed standing and 25 minutes is a LONG ass time to survive eating shots from a guy like Kattar.
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There a reason you played ITD over the KO line?
 
Can someone explain to me this upplaying of Taila Santos? What am I missing? She's a can crusher with mediocre striking who dropped a decision to a low tier fighter in her only UFC fight. She's not even a great grappler, she just happened to start her debut with a failed sub attempt. McCann feels like one of the biggest value lines on this card at evens.
 
mkess101 said:
I will say I played Kattar itd at -105. I think there's value, even with Ige being durable. I played Kattar Rd 4 and Rd 5 too.

Ige has never been in a 5 rounder. His cardio looks fine, but he's outclassed standing and 25 minutes is a LONG ass time to survive eating shots from a guy like Kattar.
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<JonesLaugh>
I'm picking Kattar to win in the 4th as well.
 
rev0lver said:
Can someone explain to me this upplaying of Taila Santos? What am I missing? She's a can crusher with mediocre striking who dropped a decision to a low tier fighter in her only UFC fight. She's not even a great grappler, she just happened to start her debut with a failed sub attempt. McCann feels like one of the biggest value lines on this card at evens.
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I talk about the McCann vs. Santos fight at the 31:30 minute mark to the 40:30 minute mark of the video.
 
rev0lver said:
Can someone explain to me this upplaying of Taila Santos? What am I missing? She's a can crusher with mediocre striking who dropped a decision to a low tier fighter in her only UFC fight. She's not even a great grappler, she just happened to start her debut with a failed sub attempt. McCann feels like one of the biggest value lines on this card at evens.
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Agreed, McCann is much more proven given the level of her competition, the vast majority of Santos' wins had zero wins themselves when they faced her, and most of them still have zero wins. Can crushing to the Nth degree, I went big on McCann at evens.
 
Tirimasuperman said:
God what an awful fucking fight Belbita v Jojua is. I'm in the minority that actually like WMMA, but I genuinely refuse to believe that either of these two are among the best in the world. Bring in fucking atomweight instead of this shitshow, at least Lindsey VanZandt actually knows how to strike

Anyway, given I hadn't heard of either fighter I figured that I'd probably want to bet Liana Jojua. Then I searched her on Fight Pass and realised she's the girl who got dominated by Sarah fucking Moras. Yikes. Maybe it's Octagon jitters, but her striking was timid and she obviously couldn't get out from under Sarah's beanbag ass. With that said, she did clearly have some semblance of top control and ability to take her opponent down, and you could see that the boxing fundamentals were there even if she wasn't applying them properly. And as much as I genuinely believed Sarah Moras was the worst woman on the roster, she is at least semi-legit at BJJ, so I guess it's not THAT much of an indictment to not be able to stop her from sitting on your face

Then we have Belbita. Belbita strikes kind of like Nick Diaz mixed with Ronda Rousey mixed with Elias Theodorou, in the sense that she has Diaz's strategy of basically flailing her arms about at her opponent (but without mixing in power shots or moving to the body), Ronda's boxing technique, and Elias Theodorou's power. Given she kept pushing forward against Molly I figured I'd be betting her, but holy fuck this girl has no ability to get off the ground at all. She doesn't seem to have much submission defence either, and honestly it seems like the only reason Meatball Molly didn't submit her was because she wanted to get a KO (or because she doesn't actually have offensive BJJ, it's probably that ngl)

So there we have it. Two chicks who for whatever reason are unable to get off of the ground, where one is mentally weak but has sound enough technique and the other is a fucking warrior that has maybe been doing three months of MMA classes which she took up purely for self-defence

In this fight you're literally betting on who you think has improved the most since their last fight, and who wants to be in the UFC more. Belbita is the safer play because she actually wants to be in the Octagon, but honestly it could go either way and on current odds I'd lean FDNGTD purely because of the odds
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Do you think Jojua could wrestle Belbita to a victory?
 
Abdul is the most violent man in the ufc he’s ngannou level violent but he’s now over -300 that’s just too juicy
 
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