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UFC on ESPN+ 34 Overeem vs Harris PBP and Discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by PolarBearPaulVarelans, May 16, 2020.

  1. Vitor Apologist Orange Belt

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    Walt literally giving up his arm to fabricio was in the back of my mind when picking reem
     
  2. HeadsUpPoker Green Belt

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    Damm, i read it as 5u pre and then 1u itd live. Nice one. 5u is a heavy bet for someone like Overeem haha.
     
  3. The Eagle Purple Belt

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    If that big idiot didn't threw that leg kick he would win. I'm surprised how many UFC fighters have no fighting IQ.
     
  4. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    Yeah I normally wouldn't but like I said it was so obvious he was gonna win after the round ended. The way walt was breathing and blew his load trying to finish reem and showed he can still be taken down and controlled easily.
     
  5. im a clitasauras rex White Belt

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    watching how reem recovered here he got robbed in that fight
     
  6. Broe. Brown Belt

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    harris knew he was out of shape, he tried to go for broke in the first, didnt work out, tough luck.
     
  7. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    Fuck you Dan Miragliotta, you don't let a fight go on longer because of things that happened outside of the octagon, fucking goof. Massive swing for me by not hitting the under 1.5. Pound for pound worst ref in mma.
     
  8. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

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    My first time reading in the PBP thread. Fun night guys and congrats to the winners. i would have been up $500 if Hill won and thank the just bleed gods Overeem survived for me to make a profit. See you guys in 15 days.
     
  9. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    didn´t you fear he may still get ko´ed before the ground? thats what kept me from betting it.
    i think a ton of gamblers were on walt, as in round 1 when reem dominated walt after coming back hard, he was like 2.20 dog, for the longest time. it made zero sense to me.
    and in round 2 i hesittated, but thats awesome you went so hard, brave man! glad it paid for you! but reem you never know.

    like reason i didnt bet him prefight despite aall his advantages were due to the special situation who knew if he´d just sorta throw the fight or something..should had ust went small of course though.
    emotions or what feels nice has no place here.

    But even with walt so gassed after rd1, the fear of the ko on reem seems to always be there, you didn´t fear it one bit at all?
     
  10. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

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    thats EXACTLY how i felt.
     
  11. yellowbean Yellow Belt

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    IMG_20200517_120435_177.jpg
    I am close,too...
     
  12. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    It's kinda hard to explain but when camera zoomed in last minute or 2 of first round on Walts face while Reem was on top landing punches, I could just tell he's done from the way he was breathing and his demeanor. He's 15lb heavier than usual and couldn't turn Reem's lights off blowing his load in the first, so I wasn't worried that a gassed version would KO Reem. Walt is also an inherently low volume fighter so I just felt really confident. 6u livebet is veryyyy rare for me but I just had a feel that Walt was done pretty much lol.
     
  13. Vitor Apologist Orange Belt

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    Last post for the night cuz there is no thread for it. Better wrestler, experience, has been big keys for the past couple main events and I expect nothing changes for the next one which is Worley vs. Burns. Burns has Maia level Jiu-Jitsu but his wrestling has got to be a couple levels below woodleys. Woodleys takedown defense and takedowns are seriously some of the best and that is such a big advantage against a BJJ heavy guy. Burns has also never been in a main event and this is a humongous step up in competition from a washed up demian Maia and a fading Gunni Nelson. Think woodleys price is low here due to his recent performance but I think Usman was a bad stylistic match up and he would have had trouble on his best day against Usman.
     
  14. RuthlessRich Ghost

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    Fuck these crackhead Florida judges, Barboza robbery cost me a solid chunk of profit as well.

    Dana was like this dude is trying to leave the company and its his last fight on contract, we need to lower his stock a little..
     
  15. TheFightGame Banned Banned

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    Is that Woodley fight and next card actually happening ?

    Woodley already being undervalued, he literally fought the only guy who is comparable if not stronger than him in Usman and really just came out gun shy. Expecting him to come out with something to prove and in shape.

    I should start paying more attention to pre fight interviews. I think there are things to draw from what fighters say concerning their mentality that I have neglected in the past.
     
  16. Ham Socks Professional Fighter

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    With all the shit judging, I barely cleared a $200 profit.


    And I feel like that's the most painful money ive ever made through sports gambling. Shoulda made a lot more, and shoulda lost a lot more. Imma have gambling ptsd after this card.
     
  17. Vitor Apologist Orange Belt

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    Looool, I have Woodley and Dern as parlay finishers but I wouldnt mind having it cancelled to just take the safe money home...

    I agree with you on Woodley, as mentioned in my post earlier. Bjj doesn’t work unless you have good wrestling and Burns doesn’t seem like the type of guy to have the strength or stamina to win via grappling. The most likely path to victory for Burns is imposing his BJJ if Tyron wants to make this fight happen on the mat which I doubt he will do. Tyron has excellent TD defense that I don’t see a BJJ purist exposing. Burns striking is good, but he looked good against a fading Gunnar Nelson and an absolute past beyond his prime Maia. Woodley below -200 is a great price point considering Woodleys 5 round experiences, he doesn’t get chinned much in his fights so his striking defense is actually good. Woodley via decision
     
  18. Krieg the Psycho Orange Belt

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    Over + Reem hit, I was yelling at the screen for Reem to go for the choke because I also had him by sub...but I'll take it, things were looking really grim in the beginning.

    It's tough to understand judging sometimes. Lost on Barboza and Hill (live, had Gadelha by sub pre-fight) but won with Yadong (hedged Vera live). Hit Nascimento sub and Jotko live. I will also proudly admit that I had money on Anthony Hernandez and Borella dec, oops. Overall I think I'm in the plus by a tiny amount, thanks to Reem. Would have been a bit better without the Hill and Vera live bets.

    Still the biggest question for me is (despite not having any action) how in the hell did Landwehr get two 30-27s?
     
  19. The Eagle Purple Belt

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    My only issue with Woodley is that he is 38 years old and i'm not sure how hungry he is to get back into a title picture.
     
  20. The Eagle Purple Belt

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    Regarding judges. Does anyone know if they rotated them during the last 2 events or they were the same people? Because a lot of decision during the last 2 events were very bad in my opinion. When I watch the fights that I bet on I try not to be bias. For example today I picked Vera and believe that he won. While my other pick Gadelha I thought barely lost. It seems to me that during the last 2 events judges were just doing a coin toss to pick a winner.
     

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