UFC on ESPN 5 Covington vs Lawler Official Bets

[Crimp_Keeper]

Giles...

 

[Soccer Steve]

Covington Decision - 2u for 2.2u
Millertime ML - 5u for 3.01u
Millertime Sub - 0.5u for 1.25u
Shevchenko ML - 3u for 2.5u
Shevchenko Decision - 1.5u for 1.88u
Stosic ML - 4u for 3.39u
Schnell ML - 2.5u for 2.63u
Schnell Submission - 0.5u for 2.5u
Giles Decision - 0.5u for 1.67u
Giles-GM3 Over 1.5 Rounds - 2.5u for 1.64u
Gall ML - 3u for 3.3u
Gall Submission - 0.5u for 1.05u
C.Silva Round 1 or 2 - 0.49u for 0.37u
Start Round 2: Colb-Lawl + Shev-Pudi + Sch-Esp + Bor-Mur + Gold-Grang - 1.25u for 1.22u

11.65u

Stosic-sized blemish on an otherwise beauty of a night. Hope you all made out winners.

 

[And]

1u Lawler ML +205 to win 2.05u
0.1u Lawler R1 +1000 to win 1u

1.4u Miller ML -140 to win 1u
0.2u Guida (SC=NA) +507 to win 1.14u

0.5u J Silva ML +248 to win 1.24u
0.5u J Silva (SC=NA) +320 to win 1.6u

3.45u Stosic ML -115 to win 3u
0.28u Stosic (SC=NA) -140 to win 0.2u
0.1u Stosic R1 +350 to win 0.35u
0.05u Stosic - Nzechukwu draw +8500 to win 4.25u

1u Gall ML +107 to win 1.07u
0.1u Gall KO/TKO/DQ +1045 to win 1.045u

1.23u Espinosa ML -123 to win 1u

0.1u Pudilova ITD +955 to win 0.955u

5.2u Romero Borella ML -130 to win 4u
0.2u Romero Borella ITD +500 to win 1u

0.2u C Silva KO/TKO/DQ +542 to win 1.084u

0.5u Granger +140 to win 0.7u

Result: -10.16u

My capping has been off lately. I need to concentrate more on hedge- and live-betting probably, cause that's what has been saving me lately.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

1.9u on Colby points -5.5 at +140
2.3u on Touahri at -115
2.5u on Granger at +130

Edit- Got Granger at +130, not +125.

Lost 0.6u betting on Pudilova after round 1 at +170, for a +2.95u card.

It's nice to get a solid win after a series of losing cards, and I don't regret any of my plays, but I'm a little annoyed at my relative amounts. I was slightly more confident on Granger at much better odds than I was on Touahri, but I ended up putting similar amounts down on both.

Should have either upped my Granger action to 3.5-4u, or lowered my Touahri action to 1.5u or less. I was leery of betting more on low-level WMMA, but the value was incredible.

It might seem small, but an extra unit and a half here and there adds up.

Not going to beat myself up too much about the Covington amount, but I had a very hard read there.

 

[Cockadoodle]

2.15u good night of fights, my only real disappointment was Stosic which was a really winnable fight even with zero IQ. the fact he thought he still won it was a bit laughable.
see you next week

Lawler ML- 2u for 3.8u
Lawler r1 ko - .25u for 3u
Lawler r4 ko- .1u for 2.5
Miller Sub - 1u for 2.75u (will consider guida live bet after r1)

Pulidova ML - 1u for 1.55u

Stosic ML - 2u for 1.56u

Schnell ML - 1u for 1.23u

GM3 ML - 1u for 1.35u

Touhari ML - 1u for 1.23u

Little Dong ML 1u for 3.3u -love overweight underdogs

Williams ML 1u for 3.2u
Williams ko .25u for 3u

Granger ML 1u for 1.45u

Good Luck!

 

[Austisthunder]

Nasrat 3u -250
Hotsauce 3U -275
Science in the Water Lawler 1U +200

Fuck this card

Up about 4U listed
Sprinkled some on miller, miller sub, Lawler rd 1, colby decision

Have just about recovered from Austrian Wonderboi/ gdr/simon parlaygate now

 

[Jordan3399]

Down just shy of 1u, pretty shit card with some fairly wacky stuff, judges and refs were pretty awful. Came close in a lot of spots only for unexpected finishes or dubious officiating to get in the way. Holtz R3 or Dec, Murphy Dec, had Meer Dec live at great odds too which almost hit. Dropped 0.5u Kennedy Dec after R1 to cover my Stosic bet fortunately. Main regret not hitting Murphy harder, capped her at like -150 but was really conservative there.

Had a decent week aside from that so can't complain, on to the next one.

 

[wessnipes]

Cole Williams:
£445 win @ 4.1 (pre missing weight)
£400 win by ko @10.0
£150 win by finish @8.0
£452 u1.5rds @2.01

For me Silva is very poor on the feet and with the ko odds in this range, I'm going in hard. He's great on the ground of course, hence the u1.5rds, which could work out as some cover if he gets a takedown. Wish I hadn't put so much on the moneyline as the value is certainly on the ko. Admittedly I've little knowledge on Williams, but enough on Silva, and I don't think you need to be much of a striker to have a decent ko chance. Others would have finished him before this if they hadn't followed him to the ground after stunning him badly, so I'm taking my shot here, lets see how it pans out.

Avoided disaster thankfully with the u1.5rd saver. I look forward to doing the same the next time Silva fights. I added a bit on Jim Miller when his odds drifted slightly before the off. -£207 on the night.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

LOL at Holtzman ITD at + money after round 1


Thanks, Giles, you jobber lmao




Valentina left:




Jim Miller was eaaaasy. Mickey Gall, see you soon, boiii.

 

[HeadsUpPoker]

1u on Darko Stosic at 1.77 to profit 0.77u
1u on Lauren Murphy at 2.45 to profit 1.45u
0.5u on Lauren Murphy at 2.60 to profit 0.8u
1u on Matt Scnell at 2.30 to profit 1.30u
0.33u on Lauren Murphy NSC at 1.95 to profit 0.31u
0.33u on Stosic on points at 6.15 to profit 1.7u
0.5u on Covington unanimous decision at 2.65 to profit 0.83u

Awesome night. Livebetting was decent, but i am more interested in the prebetting. Imagine if Darko Stosic had won on points. It actually was not that bad of a bet in hindsight. If only he didnt hit those nuts. I knew he would win round 1 and hoped he would be able to steal 1 more using takedowns. He did the same against a former opponent twice.

Total loss/profit: +3.36u

With a risk of 4.66u,i am happy with the result.

 

[RuthlessRich]

Mara Borella is a fraud... Almost turned $1.50 into $1000... -_-

 

[Space Dog]

i lost like 160$ damnit.

I gotta stop going full degen betting every single fight.
Giles and Borella cost me the most.

Originally i had only 2 bets: Nasrat straight & jim miller straight.

Lesson learned............. (for now)

 

[B2000829]

2 units on all
Lawler +200 : Too good standing up, and doesnt take damage on ground. Will do more overall damage.
Gall +106 : Wish I could fade Gall, but Salim looks terrible, just spams the left hook. Even stand up, with ground adv to gall
Nasrat -230 : Will be a boxing fight. Have to give it to the younger, bigger, faster, higher volume, better defence
A. Shev -140 : Stand up fight, where AS has more tools. AS to win in clinch.
Stosic -120 : Kennedy only wins if he doesnt get KO'd, avoids body kicks, outworks, avoids TD.
Granger +110 : Both look terrible, but long grappler (7 inch reach and better grappling) means she dominates most areas.

Haven't watched fights yet, but overall positive, up a bit over 2 Units.

Edit : grammar

 

[Bastaille]

Colvington 1k to win 440$
Colvington dec 200$ to win 220$

Stosic 350$ To win 250$

Schnell 350$ to win 420$

+ 730$ not that bad for a card i was not confident at all. Hope everyone did good $$$$.

 

[null]

Sometimes less is more. Didn't make anywhere near as many bets as usual, but got most of my bigger bets correct and ended up with a respectable profit of 7.74 units.

UFC on ESPN 5 Results Risk $2,275.00

Robbie Lawler (+215) vs Colby Covington $100.00 for $215.00= -$100.00
Robbie Lawler wins by TKO/KO (+313) $75.00 for $234.75= -$75.00
Robbie Lawler wins in round 1 (+1000) $25.00 for $250.00= -$25.00
Live In-Play Robbie Lawler (+650) vs Colby Covington $100.00 for $650.00= -$100.00

Jim Miller (-140) vs Clay Guida $350.00 for $250.00= $250.00
Jim Miller wins by submission (+250) $40.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Nasrat Haqparast/Jaoquim Silva Under 2½ (+152) $100.00 for $152.00= $152.00

Trevin Giles (-160) vs Gerald Meerschaert $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00

Scott Holtzman/Dong Hyun Ma Over 2½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00= -$150.00

Kennedy Nzechukwu (+100) vs Darko Stosic $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Live In-Play Kennedy Nzechukwu (+170) vs Darko Stosic $100.00 or $170.00= $170.00

Salim Touahri/Mickey Gall Under 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00= -$135.00

Antonina Shevchenko (-130) vs Lucie Pudilova $260.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Antonina Shevchenko (-140) vs Lucie Pudilova $350.00 for $250.00= $250.00

Matt Schnell/Jordan Espinosa Over 2½ (-180) $180.00 for $100.00= -$180.00

Lauren Murphy (+170) vs Mara Romero Borella $100.00 for $170.00= $170.00

Claudio Silva/Cole Williams Under 1½ (+107) $100.00 for $107.00= $107.00

Hannah Goldy/Miranda Granger Over 2½ Rounds (-200) $400.00 for $200.00= $200.00
-----

Total Profit= $774.00

 

[ApplesVild]

Stosic - 1 unit at 1.72

Jim Miller - 1 unit 1.50

Lawler - 2 units at 2.87 (My biggest bet but I believe Lawler loses, just a fan so not betting against him)

Salim - 1 unit at 2.10

Nasrat + Holtzman - 1 unit

Meerschaert - 1 unit at 2.30

So if I had bet with my brain rather than just betting Robbie because I'm a fan.

I watched tape for Nasrat, Holtzman, Meerschaert, Miller and Lawler fights, and they were all good picks. I had said all week that Lawler gas a path but I believe Colby would do basically just what he did.

My main downfall seems to be listening to mma podcasts, I'm a fan of a few of a few of them but when I've watched tape and and made my picks a mixture of these guys and reading stuff on here has me second guessing and making stupid live bets.

Already have some pre-bets and some parlays that will hopefully complete with the DC/Stipe card, I might take a quick look at few of the interesting fights for next week but play it small.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

$200 on Stosic at an average of 1.84
$10 Lawler KO round one at 10

Good luck everybody!

Well, at least my pre-betting picks are easy to tally up: 0/2 = –$210

On the bright side: it's an improvement from last week, when I went 0/3. If I only make one bet on the next card I can expect to do even better!

Good to see that a lot of the forum had a + night!

 

[Sadistics]

Lawler NSC -143 $215
Lawler +5.5 -155 $155
Covington/Lawler GTD -115 $400

Haqparast -211 $700

Giles/Meerschaert O1.5 -147 $300

Stosic -120 $750
Nzechukwu DEC +400 $50

Touhari +167 $150

Shevchenko/Pudilova O2.5 -400 $750

Holtzman -210 $300
Holtzman DEC +175 $150

Granger +160 $500

Holtzman (-210) + Cyborg (-600) -138 $700

Going back and forth between $500 and $700 units, but not really using units, basically operating with 3500 as my max bet and betting within that for now. Arbed out of most of my Salim action after tape. Still considering Miller but I need closer to -120.

+$362. Mehhhh, whatever I'll take it, hated this card for betting as well as the next one. Didn't watch live so no LBs, just caught the replay and it was a decent card, lots of fighters going unconscious. Shev/Pud o2.5 at -400 and Stosic were the bad bets, costing most of my profit.

 

[ApplesVild]

I didn't think Stosic was too bad of bet, Kennedy was bad in all the ways I expected, and without a 2 point deduction Stosic takes every round.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

I didn't think Stosic was too bad of bet, Kennedy was bad in all the ways I expected, and without a 2 point deduction Stosic takes every round.

I bet Stsoic pretty big, motivated by basically just very heavily fading Kennedy. In retrospect I feel the odds were probably quite correct. Stosic deserved to be a small favourite because of how terrible Kennedy is, but with the low output and cardio problems I don't think (in retrospect) that there was much value there. We really don't know if he would have had the gas to take round three without the ball-kicking breaks...