Are you guys on Hooker counting on Edson being broken and diminished from the damage he took from Khabib and Kevin Lee, or do you think that Dan Hooker is very much improved and so dangerous that he beats a motivated Barboza at his best? I have a feeling that most Hooker bettors are in the former camp.
UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II
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I don't think Barboza can be at his best at this point. I also think his boxing(hands) are just overrated. I could see him having success early but wilting once he gets tagged. And I could see Hooker hurting him with damn near everything he lands
I also think Hooker is massively improved. And I like that he's sparring with stylebender
I think this is a fight with 2 fighters going in different directions. Oh, I also think Hooker can take him down
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On baby pettis against you on hookerGuess ima be the only one on Baby Pettis and Hooker
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Out of all Hooker's opponents Yair seems to be the most similar to Barboza; Hooker just got dominated that fight. He was getting outgrappled by Yair of all people and Yair was landing kicks at will especially in RD 2. I remember Hooker was trying to push the pace but failed miserably. This was also at Featherweight.
If he tries to pressure Barboza.... I don't think it'll end well for Hooker since that's just not his style of fighting.
But if he doesn't pressure Barboza and lets Barboza strike at his range then he'll lose that way too.
For all you Hooker bettors..... I'm curious.....How do you see Hooker winning?
Has Hooker really improved that much since his fight with Yair three years ago or has he just faced opponents whom he matches up well against stylistically?
Is Barboza a broken man after these last two brutal beatings?
Tough fight to call. Might skip this one.
If he tries to pressure Barboza.... I don't think it'll end well for Hooker since that's just not his style of fighting.
But if he doesn't pressure Barboza and lets Barboza strike at his range then he'll lose that way too.
For all you Hooker bettors..... I'm curious.....How do you see Hooker winning?
Has Hooker really improved that much since his fight with Yair three years ago or has he just faced opponents whom he matches up well against stylistically?
Is Barboza a broken man after these last two brutal beatings?
Tough fight to call. Might skip this one.
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Yes. Hooker is 100% a better and different fighter than he was a couple years ago IMO. Just like Holloway became a drastically better fighter over a 2 year period. It happens
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If it moves close to even I'll add more but I think -155 is good enough and I dont want to have to possibly pay more later. Bet Font at -165 too, could get better maybe but I want to play him and I dont want to have to pay more.
I like Rodriguez as well, jumped on kinda late taking him at +150. Feel pretty good about him here as long as Milstead doesnt try to wrestle and keep a clinch. I think Milstead is too stiff in his standup, he wants to be a KO artist but he doesnt have the fluidity, seems unnatural in his standup. I think he would do better if he tried to be a grappling based fighter. Hes strong, has ok takedowns but his BJJ is terrible since he wants to go K-1. I think if it goes to DEC Rodriguez wins and if someone does get finished I'm betting it's Milstead.
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Yeah I'm going to start adding to Font's ML, can get him at -158 now. Rob Font is just a bad match up for lil Pettis.
I kind of missed my chance to bet Rodriguez, I definitely think there is value on him at +150. Rodriguez also said after his last fight he started doing S&C and packed on a bunch of muscle, he was physically overpowered by Clark so I think this is good for him.
A bunch of people keep calling Milstead a "KO artist" but he's been wrestling is whole life, thats his base. I'm sure it'll be a competitive fight for how ever long it lasts but I agree that Rodriguez is more likely to get a finish.
I've kind of missed my chance to play some of these dogs. I think Silva, Rodriguez, Griffin all had good value.
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I picked up a fairly big Rodriguez +178 position since an Aus book was lagging and it was a free arb worst case scenario. Considering whether to let it run, or turn it into 2u to win 5u or something.
Green might actually be my favorite pick of the card. Don't think Klose has the wrestling or the top control to grind him out, and I think Green wins a close, grinding boxing match with Klose. Klose doesn't really have the finishing threat or takedowns to completely blast Green out at the start. I was big on Klose against Lando, so I like the dude and respect his skillset. Just feel like Lando and Diakese were uniquely suited to make his grinding style look good.
Dan Hooker will take this fight. If he doesn’t feel free to quote this and shit on my life. Barboza hasn’t shown stark improvements in his game in years, no matter how clean of a striker he is, he’s been static
Hooker has been improving exponentially. He’s worlds different from the fighter he once was. The only way Barboza wins this if he gets a flash KO. Mark my words.
We won’t get odds like this on Hooker again, expect him to open above -200 after he puts on a masterclass performance against Barboza this weekend (assuming he doesn’t get a large jump in competition after this W) Lay cash on him while you can.
Hooker has been improving exponentially. He’s worlds different from the fighter he once was. The only way Barboza wins this if he gets a flash KO. Mark my words.
We won’t get odds like this on Hooker again, expect him to open above -200 after he puts on a masterclass performance against Barboza this weekend (assuming he doesn’t get a large jump in competition after this W) Lay cash on him while you can.
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Alternately, he's had a few favorable matchups in a row and Barboza is coming off a momentum lowpoint. Hooker could very well pull this off, but it just feels like jumping the gun for him to be the favorite against Barboza just yet. Betting on ANZ talent usually means you're betting -EV since we've got such a huge gambling base in the region.
Dude had a competitive fight with Marc Diakiese less than a year ago, Pearson hung with him, Miller looked awful against him and Burns isn't exactly a technical kickboxing wunderkind. Ortega last week kinda shows the ridiculousness of betting on 'he's always improving' when it hasn't actually been shown in person.
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Guess ima be the only one on Baby Pettis and Hooker
I'm leaning towards Pettis actually.
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Nah like them both at these pricesGuess ima be the only one on Baby Pettis and Hooker
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You might be onto something with Bobby Green, I really like what I saw from Green in his last fight, best he's looked in a long time, I liked the pressure, the volume, the clinch work.
Green has a lot of experience and his only UFC losses are to high level fighters. Green is another one of these guys that is not always consistent, he doesn't always perform to his best but I've seen the potential that is there.
I don't think Kolse is going to have an easy time trying to take Green down, Green is a great scrambler and comes from a wrestling background himself. I have to favor Green in the striking, his boxing is much better but I do worry about the calf kick from Klose. If Bobby Green's clinch game looks like it did last fight then thats a tough spot for Klose and we know Klose likes clinching is opponents up against the cage. It's also interesting that Green is only two years older than Klose despite the massive experience gap.
I still don't know how good Klose his, his UFC wins are Powell, Diakase and Lando. A bum, and two overrated prospects. I feel like the Lando that Klose fought was diminished, Lando honestly looks worse every fight, dude is a punching bag.
One thing I don't like about Green is his talk about "Getting fight of the night" or "putting on a show for the fans" I can't stand that stuff but Green certainly prides himself on being an entertainer. I just want Green to show up like he did last time, that Bobby Green can win this fight.
I do think this fight will be competitive but I gotta favor Green to get it done, best philly shell in MMA
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Hooker has some sneaky power. Showed he can generate it at short distance. Look at that punch he dropped Burns with to begin with. Almost a jab but more of a shirt straight right. Super accurate too.
I might have been the only guy impressed with Dan ko of Miller. Yeah its 2018 lyme disease Miller but you dont just knock the guy stiff these days. Some big hitters like DP and Trinaldo didnt do that.
You're not getting the best Barb today you're just not imo. Everyone knows the gameplan to beat him. Hooker hasn't necessarily crowded and smothered anyone like Tferg or Lee did to Barb but neither did Lee prior to that fight. You crowd barb you get in his face you take away the space for him to land his kicks.
Dog odds were good on Barb but gimme evens on the younger fresher guy who's been showing massive improvements over the years vs the Gatekeeper vet who might very well be shopworn at this point and who has a clear cut blueprint on how to be beaten
I might have been the only guy impressed with Dan ko of Miller. Yeah its 2018 lyme disease Miller but you dont just knock the guy stiff these days. Some big hitters like DP and Trinaldo didnt do that.
You're not getting the best Barb today you're just not imo. Everyone knows the gameplan to beat him. Hooker hasn't necessarily crowded and smothered anyone like Tferg or Lee did to Barb but neither did Lee prior to that fight. You crowd barb you get in his face you take away the space for him to land his kicks.
Dog odds were good on Barb but gimme evens on the younger fresher guy who's been showing massive improvements over the years vs the Gatekeeper vet who might very well be shopworn at this point and who has a clear cut blueprint on how to be beaten
Fair points. I’m very high on Hooker, so we will have to agree to disagre. But I appreciate your input as always, I just am confident in the risk I’m taking here.
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I won't say it can't happen but Hooker has rarely initiated much grappling and he got outwrestled by Jason Knight of all people. Barboza is very difficult to take down in open space and as mentioned, Hooker hasn't shown the pressure game to trap him against the fence.
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Passing on maxing out KGB Lee. Not my style to bet -250 fighters anyway cause well...i'm just a jerkoff betting peanuts but man that Modaferri fight jesus christ. How can you look so meh against a wooden puppet? Years ago obviously but still. Rreminds of of when Megan Anderson got taken down and subbed by a zombie walking Cindy Dandois for some reason. No thank you.
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I'm very surprised at how many like KGB at that price.
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