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- Dec 10, 2015
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That was a painful 13 page read, even skimming over most of the awful analysis. Appreciate the shout-out @DevilsPt2 , but yeah you nailed it with a lot of the regular guys talking offline instead of trying to sort through the nonsense. I have three max bets this card, which I don't beleive I have ever done:
Font around -160. This is a horrid matchup for Pettis. I am of the belief he is only moving up since he wants to keep his job and they are getting rid of 125. He is going to be undersized here, that's a fact. He is a flat-footed counter striker who likes to operate just outside of his oppenents range and use his timing and combinations to pour on volume. Problem here is he won't have his usual reach advantage, is facing a extremely talented boxer and has no power. Font's accuracy, power, and shot selection are thoroughly impressive and his wrestling is underrated. I like Font to end this ITD.
KGB at -250. Think she is better everywhere, more athletic, more volume, better grappler, way better in the clinch. JRC also slows and KGB puts on a pace. Clear 30-27 or late finish IMO.
Cummings at -260. Not a ton to say here, smith is just not very good. He will have to grind out 2/3 rounds against a talented wrestler with way better fundamentals and crisp boxing. Cummings has shown great hips, a good sprawl and the ability to dig an underhook and circle out of the clinch which is really all he needs here. Should look similar to Andrew Sanchez vs Smith. I also think the move to 185 is a good one for Cummings as he lacked speed at 170 and was cutting a shit ton of weight, doubt he will be too undersized.
I like Green as well, think odds are well wide, only put .66u on at +245, but will look to hit his decision line as well. Klose calf kicks are the main concern, but green is the better boxer and has underrated wrestling and grappling. Dudes pretty slippery on the mat.
Threw .5u on Griffin +155, seems like a toss-up.
Hit Juan's opener of -265, which I could get like .85u on, think he rolls DLR.
Hoping Silva NSC is decent, will try to max that a few times. Gordon Dec or Silva KO seem like only real likely outcomes. Would've thrown a bit on Silva ML around +200, but his volume is a serious issue.
Going to look into Rodriguez today and then wait for props.
Font around -160. This is a horrid matchup for Pettis. I am of the belief he is only moving up since he wants to keep his job and they are getting rid of 125. He is going to be undersized here, that's a fact. He is a flat-footed counter striker who likes to operate just outside of his oppenents range and use his timing and combinations to pour on volume. Problem here is he won't have his usual reach advantage, is facing a extremely talented boxer and has no power. Font's accuracy, power, and shot selection are thoroughly impressive and his wrestling is underrated. I like Font to end this ITD.
KGB at -250. Think she is better everywhere, more athletic, more volume, better grappler, way better in the clinch. JRC also slows and KGB puts on a pace. Clear 30-27 or late finish IMO.
Cummings at -260. Not a ton to say here, smith is just not very good. He will have to grind out 2/3 rounds against a talented wrestler with way better fundamentals and crisp boxing. Cummings has shown great hips, a good sprawl and the ability to dig an underhook and circle out of the clinch which is really all he needs here. Should look similar to Andrew Sanchez vs Smith. I also think the move to 185 is a good one for Cummings as he lacked speed at 170 and was cutting a shit ton of weight, doubt he will be too undersized.
I like Green as well, think odds are well wide, only put .66u on at +245, but will look to hit his decision line as well. Klose calf kicks are the main concern, but green is the better boxer and has underrated wrestling and grappling. Dudes pretty slippery on the mat.
Threw .5u on Griffin +155, seems like a toss-up.
Hit Juan's opener of -265, which I could get like .85u on, think he rolls DLR.
Hoping Silva NSC is decent, will try to max that a few times. Gordon Dec or Silva KO seem like only real likely outcomes. Would've thrown a bit on Silva ML around +200, but his volume is a serious issue.
Going to look into Rodriguez today and then wait for props.
