UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II

[theTKDguy]

Lee had Al's back in their first fight and couldn't finish. I think Lee has a better chance of GnP TKO'ing him.

I think he would get the job done this time around if he has al's back

 

[zeckdo]

Khabib was -640 vs Iaquinta +470. Khabib is only slightly better than Lee. (Khabib -150, Lee +130)

I think Lee should be -500. Only chance I see Al winning are stuffing a few shots in the first round and swarming Lee on the feet with power punches.

Lee's performance against Barboza was so fucking dominant, way more dominant than Khabib was. (ik Khabib was only 15 min) If you take away the spinning wheel kick in rd 3, Lee put on an almost perfect performance. Khabib looked so desperate and sloppy chasing takedowns vs Barboza, Lee got them with ease. I'm actually staying far far away from betting Barboza this weekend because how much punishment he has endured the past 12 months.

Lee's short notice UFC debut loss vs Iaquinta 5 years ago is making this line closer than it should be. Lee's has had almost double the amount of fights Al has since their first fight, and has improved much much more. Only concern from Lee is weight, his cardio looked great vs Barb, hope he has perfected his diet and nutrition for this fight.

 

[kevinramsdell]

yup but that's what the -310 implies. While the numbers seem pretty far fetched, at the same time, empirically, fighters with -300~-400 have overperformed 3% from their theoretical percentage. So Lee is actually closer to 78% of winning.

Damn man that's crazy. You think he has that good of a chance of winning? I mean when you really analyze Kevin Lee, all of his submission wins are by rear-naked choke or guillotine so he isn't some technically savvy BJJ player, he's just a really good wrestler with a nice choke. He has good enough offense and defense on the feet to keep himself a threat. But I would def say Al has the edge in striking and in the BJJ departments. Lee will look to wrestle fuck him but I think a full camp Iaquinta comes in really good condition and his TDD will be on point especially in the later rounds.

 

[Oblivian]

I haven't played Iaquinta yet, mainly because I could see him doing stupid shit like choosing to grapple.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Lee and Iaquinta both know Lee's only path to victory is securing takedowns. Iaquinta has very good TDD, if he placed his focus on defending Lees first 3-5 takedown attempts, the next ones will be cake to defend. Lee is also chinny already got dropped by a real weak lookin jab from the first fight, got dropped by Ferguson, got rocked by Trinaldo and got finished by Santos whos never finished anyone with punches. I really think Lee needs to succeed early on his takedowns, secure the back, not expend too much energy and set the tone.

Oh yeah Barboza rocked him too. His cardio may have looked ok there but he didnt have to work that hard.

Lee had Al's back in their first fight and couldn't finish. I think Lee has a better chance of GnP TKO'ing him.

If he tries that anywhere but a dominant position hes just asking Iaquinta to get back up and he doesnt want that. I think he would rather just hold position and do nothing.

 

[t6p]

Khabib was -640 vs Iaquinta +470. Khabib is only slightly better than Lee. (Khabib -150, Lee +130)

I think Lee should be -500. Only chance I see Al winning are stuffing a few shots in the first round and swarming Lee on the feet with power punches.

Lee's performance against Barboza was so fucking dominant, way more dominant than Khabib was. (ik Khabib was only 15 min) If you take away the spinning wheel kick in rd 3, Lee put on an almost perfect performance. Khabib looked so desperate and sloppy chasing takedowns vs Barboza, Lee got them with ease. I'm actually staying far far away from betting Barboza this weekend because how much punishment he has endured the past 12 months.

Lee's short notice UFC debut loss vs Iaquinta 5 years ago is making this line closer than it should be. Lee's has had almost double the amount of fights Al has since their first fight, and has improved much much more. Only concern from Lee is weight, his cardio looked great vs Barb, hope he has perfected his diet and nutrition for this fight.

Probably passing on the fight but I'm not sure we know how much Al as improved really. All we've seen from in the last 3.5 years is the Diego KO and Khabib fight. He certainly looked a lot better than McGregor against Khabib if that's how we're gauging it. Al is also the biggest KO threat Lee has faced and Lee has been rocked in multiple fights recently.

Don't forget Lee missed weight against Barboza too. Yes, it was only by a pound but still worth noting.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Khabib is only slightly better than Lee

 

[MMAFAN1995]

In the Pettis vs Font fight, I haven't seen anyone mention the threat of a takedown from Pettis. what do you guys think?

Can Pettis take Font down and if he does who does it favor on the ground?

 

[theTKDguy]

In the Pettis vs Font fight, I haven't seen anyone mention the threat of a takedown from Pettis. what do you guys think?

Can Pettis take Font down and if he does who does it favor on the ground?

I think he may wanna take it to the ground as he is outgunned on the feet imo. I think font gets up fairly quickly. Font by dec

 

[starfish01]

Lee and Iaquinta both know Lee's only path to victory is securing takedowns. Iaquinta has very good TDD, if he placed his focus on defending Lees first 3-5 takedown attempts, the next ones will be cake to defend. Lee is also chinny already got dropped by a real weak lookin jab from the first fight, got dropped by Ferguson, got rocked by Trinaldo and got finished by Santos whos never finished anyone with punches. I really think Lee needs to succeed early on his takedowns, secure the back, not expend too much energy and set the tone.

Oh yeah Barboza rocked him too. His cardio may have looked ok there but he didnt have to work that hard.



If he tries that anywhere but a dominant position hes just asking Iaquinta to get back up and he doesnt want that. I think he would rather just hold position and do nothing.

If Iauqinta solely concentrated on takedown defense, it might mess with his striking as we saw in the khabib fight were khabib was able to jab his face off at will. Lee’s striking is still a work in progress but he’s long and can crack. However that fight was literally last minute short notice. If he gameplans properly it could be less of a problem.

As it stands I think the odds are about right.

 

[rille31]

Al likes to dive for leg locks? What fight did he do that in? I must refresh my memory because I can't recall it.

I Think Ive seen him go for that retarted sambo style scissor takedown a couple of times

 

[rille31]

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Hahahahahaha omg dude that's my shit.

 

[MMAOracle]

MMA Oracle and Kyle Stevens have really brought this betting forum down. Shame really

I am sorry Grant. I guess my posts are not exactly quality yet. I will make sure to advocate losers like Ortega just like you. Plz lol. Hey everyone, this idiot told all of you to not bet on Holloway. This guys also recommended against Shev. You say quality shit but your predictions are shit bro.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Y'all are goin to make all the good posters leave or just communicate privately, dont go back and forth with people you dont give a damn about(as you may say) or better yet, even people you do.

If Iauqinta solely concentrated on takedown defense, it might mess with his striking as we saw in the khabib fight were khabib was able to jab his face off at will. Lee’s striking is still a work in progress but he’s long and can crack. However that fight was literally last minute short notice. If he gameplans properly it could be less of a problem.

As it stands I think the odds are about right.

Yeah, you're rght, it could open Al up to something hes not expecting. I think he can anticipate the inevitable takedown and still be somewhat effective striking while he waits for it. Like I said after the first few it will be less of a concern, easier to see and defend, then he can open up more.

 

[matthew55]

Y'all are goin to make all the good posters leave or just communicate privately, dont go back and forth with people you dont give a damn about(as you may say) or better yet, even people you do.



Yeah, you're rght, it could open Al up to something hes not expecting. I think he can anticipate the inevitable takedown and still be somewhat effective striking while he waits for it. Like I said after the first few it will be less of a concern, easier to see and defend, then he can open up more.

I feel the same way, and it seems as if some have already left smh or come back seldom

 

[DevilsPt2]

I feel the same way, and it seems as if some have already left smh or come back seldom

This forum is a great resource of information, I hope it doesnt die. I appreciate Sadistics, Dianabol, Stunna, Oblivian, Jim Gunn and many other posters here(just cause I didnt say your name doesnt mean I dont think you're special).

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

People really, really sleeping on Lee here. Best overall athlete at LW and really his top game is right there with Khabib’s. Can be chinny but barring an early knockdown and gnp stoppage, I see no way Al wins this. Khabib took him down at will and I see no reason Lee can’t/won’t do the same. That being said the price is off on Lee but it’s Lee or pass there.

Barboza should be favored, line is off based on Hooker’s recent stoppages and Barboza’s last couple of fights. That said I’m hesitant to hit Barboza because he’s gotten the dog shit beat out of him in his last couple.

Line is about right on Klose-Green imo. Klose is a serious prospect and Green never seems to have his whole heart in it (guy’s pulled out of more fights than anyone I’ve seen). Klose should be able to land some leg kicks like he did against Diakiese with Green’s boxing-heavy offense.

KGB line was good at opening at still fine at -270. Jessy Jess never shows an inkling of improvement in the cage and I’m anticipating we’ll definitely see an improved version of KGB since the Macedo fight. Jess is just bad and I think this will be one-sided.

Pettis is probably my favorite dog. Definitely favor Font but he let me down in the Assuncao fight. I think Pettis could pull out a win, -170 is steep for Font here.

 

[MMAOracle]

Damn man that's crazy. You think he has that good of a chance of winning? I mean when you really analyze Kevin Lee, all of his submission wins are by rear-naked choke or guillotine so he isn't some technically savvy BJJ player, he's just a really good wrestler with a nice choke. He has good enough offense and defense on the feet to keep himself a threat. But I would def say Al has the edge in striking and in the BJJ departments. Lee will look to wrestle fuck him but I think a full camp Iaquinta comes in really good condition and his TDD will be on point especially in the later rounds.

I do understand that it is insane. But I am just saying, historically, fighters with -310 won 78% of the times, which is 3% more than the implied probability of 75%. Aside from numbers, imo, the actual chance of winning, I would say is close to 60/40. So Lee is very very and overvalued. Once the line falls to -150 then it is a good deal.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Deep af on miller at +245, I think those odds are soooo off