UFC Vegas 73: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill, May 20

[Hellowhosthat]

Thats a good rule TBH. I dont know if anyone has a stat but Im sure its lopsided against the 40yo fighters.

It definitely is, used to cost me a lot of money. I get the odd tinge of regret like not betting Brown at the weekend but I'd win like 1 in 5 in the old boys

People can fall off a cliff fast at that age.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Nina is washed. I bet Dern against Tecia and she very well could have lost that dec if not for one punch in the first. This is a common theme when she dosent get a sub, which happened in 6 of her 10 fights in the UFC. Cooper, Nunes, Cifers and Ronda are her sub wins. Bottom of the barrel stuff. Three rounds on the ground against a world class jits fighter in Virna is enough to tell me Hill has improved her submission defense a ton. There was more than just a the armbar attempt, she pulled guard into a deep leg lock in the first and had her back in the third. Hill reversed all those.

Angela has more to worry about, this is the sport of mixed martial arts , we are trying to figure out who plays mma better. Dern and Virna don't attack subs the same, you should know this, you should know that it takes a special talent to be able to chain submissions like Dern does. Virna would get smoked in a pure bjj match. Dern can chain a rnc to an armbar at a drop of a pin.

Both of these girls have 3 common opponents
Yan
Virna
Tecia

Dern is 2/3 and Angela is 0/3

Dern lost to Yan but she sure as hell gave her a fight and won the last round, it's not like Yan walked away clean.
Dern beat Virna soundly
Dern had a close fight vs Tecia, but she landed far more cleaner head strikes, better than Hill did.

Angela got smoked by all 3.

Why is nina nunes no big deal but Godinez and Ducote is? Loopy lost to washed 40 year old Penne. Split with Calvillo when she was a near 3 to one favorite opening line. Ducote is just average, ok fighter but she's never cracking top 10 . Dern is more accomplished and proven fighter, Angela needs to win by the skin of her teeth to win this, and even then judges don't like her.


i forgot Markos and Yoder

3/4 1/4

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

I like that under line in Silva/Leonardo a lot. 1.71 / -141 seems like a good price, much better than Silva ITD.

 

[sonhow]

Angela has more to worry about, this is the sport of mixed martial arts , we are trying to figure out who plays mma better. Dern and Virna don't attack subs the same, you should know this, you should know that it takes a special talent to be able to chain submissions like Dern does. Virna would get smoked in a pure bjj match. Dern can chain a rnc to an armbar at a drop of a pin.

Both of these girls have 3 common opponents
Yan
Virna
Tecia

Dern is 2/3 and Angela is 0/3

Dern lost to Yan but she sure as hell gave her a fight and won the last round, it's not like Yan walked away clean.
Dern beat Virna soundly
Dern had a close fight vs Tecia, but she landed far more cleaner head strikes, better than Hill did.

Angela got smoked by all 3.

Why is nina nunes no big deal but Godinez and Ducote is? Loopy lost to washed 40 year old Penne. Split with Calvillo when she was a near 3 to one favorite opening line. Ducote is just average, ok fighter but she's never cracking top 10 . Dern is more accomplished and proven fighter, Angela needs to win by the skin of her teeth to win this, and even then judges don't like her.

Hill did not get smoked by Yan. It was pretty much a 50/50 dec

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Angela has more to worry about, this is the sport of mixed martial arts , we are trying to figure out who plays mma better. Dern and Virna don't attack subs the same, you should know this, you should know that it takes a special talent to be able to chain submissions like Dern does. Virna would get smoked in a pure bjj match. Dern can chain a rnc to an armbar at a drop of a pin.

Both of these girls have 3 common opponents
Yan
Virna
Tecia

Dern is 2/3 and Angela is 0/3

Dern lost to Yan but she sure as hell gave her a fight and won the last round, it's not like Yan walked away clean.
Dern beat Virna soundly
Dern had a close fight vs Tecia, but she landed far more cleaner head strikes, better than Hill did.

Angela got smoked by all 3.

Why is nina nunes no big deal but Godinez and Ducote is? Loopy lost to washed 40 year old Penne. Split with Calvillo when she was a near 3 to one favorite opening line. Ducote is just average, ok fighter but she's never cracking top 10 . Dern is more accomplished and proven fighter, Angela needs to win by the skin of her teeth to win this, and even then judges don't like her.

I'm not betting Angie but she didn't get smoked by Yan, that was an extremely close fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm not betting Angie but she didn't get smoked by Yan, that was an extremely close fight.

Hill did not get smoked by Yan. It was pretty much a 50/50 dec

still a clean 29/28 in a 3 rnd fight. cant really consider that close with a margin of 15+ ss on the side of Yan.

 

[sonhow]

still a clean 29/28 in a 3 rnd fight. cant really consider that close with a margin of 15+ ss on the side of Yan.

I disagree but the fight doesnt really play a factor in Dern-Hill talk other than judges don't like Hill. So not gonna discuss it any further.

I favor Dern as long as she fights smart...Which isnt the guarantee at all lol but if she fights like she did vs Tecia she should get this one.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I disagree but the fight doesnt really play a factor in Dern-Hill talk other than judges don't like Hill. So not gonna discuss it any further.

I favor Dern as long as she fights smart...Which isnt the guarantee at all lol but if she fights like she did vs Tecia she should get this one.

Yan outlander 35 to 25 rnd 2

45 to 35 rnd 3

that is 50:50?

I think everyone is glancing over the illegal knee brace that Hill did as no big deal.

To me it’s a sign of a poor technique, no different than a fence grabber. Signs of poor td defense. There is a 90% chance Dern will be in the same scenario with her legs over Hills’ face trying to synch an armbar and Hill being clueless what to do as she tries to stack her over and can’t get no leverage without the knee brace. Virna taps Hill out without them, fighters grabbing gloves,shorts,fences can change the trajectory of a fight and make you rate things differently.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

she took down nina nunez , who had a near 80% td defense before her fight.

She's not as good as Virna but she does have a good pull guard game, she will attack subs from the cage and wrap herself around opponents. She nearly snapped Tecia's arm in a standing kimura with Tecia holding on to her.

Pulling guard isn’t considered a takedown and I dont care what dumb stats you throw at me her takedown/wrestling game is trash. Oh she took the ghost of Nina ansarov down. Big deal.

Angela has more to worry about, this is the sport of mixed martial arts , we are trying to figure out who plays mma better. Dern and Virna don't attack subs the same, you should know this, you should know that it takes a special talent to be able to chain submissions like Dern does. Virna would get smoked in a pure bjj match. Dern can chain a rnc to an armbar at a drop of a pin.

Both of these girls have 3 common opponents
Yan
Virna
Tecia

Dern is 2/3 and Angela is 0/3

Dern lost to Yan but she sure as hell gave her a fight and won the last round, it's not like Yan walked away clean.
Dern beat Virna soundly
Dern had a close fight vs Tecia, but she landed far more cleaner head strikes, better than Hill did.

Angela got smoked by all 3.

Why is nina nunes no big deal but Godinez and Ducote is? Loopy lost to washed 40 year old Penne. Split with Calvillo when she was a near 3 to one favorite opening line. Ducote is just average, ok fighter but she's never cracking top 10 . Dern is more accomplished and proven fighter, Angela needs to win by the skin of her teeth to win this, and even then judges don't like her.


i forgot Markos and Yoder

3/4 1/4

we call this wikicapping and mma math

Defending a bad bet +150 bro she’s not subbing anybody 50% of her fights. She’s not even at 50% in the ufc

Hannah cifers was beating her up until she caught a meme sub

she’s such a great sub artist but couldn’t sub yan with 4 solid minutes of top control.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Angela has more to worry about, this is the sport of mixed martial arts , we are trying to figure out who plays mma better. Dern and Virna don't attack subs the same, you should know this, you should know that it takes a special talent to be able to chain submissions like Dern does. Virna would get smoked in a pure bjj match. Dern can chain a rnc to an armbar at a drop of a pin.

Both of these girls have 3 common opponents
Yan
Virna
Tecia

Dern is 2/3 and Angela is 0/3

Dern lost to Yan but she sure as hell gave her a fight and won the last round, it's not like Yan walked away clean.
Dern beat Virna soundly
Dern had a close fight vs Tecia, but she landed far more cleaner head strikes, better than Hill did.

Angela got smoked by all 3.

Why is nina nunes no big deal but Godinez and Ducote is? Loopy lost to washed 40 year old Penne. Split with Calvillo when she was a near 3 to one favorite opening line. Ducote is just average, ok fighter but she's never cracking top 10 . Dern is more accomplished and proven fighter, Angela needs to win by the skin of her teeth to win this, and even then judges don't like her.


i forgot Markos and Yoder

3/4 1/4

I favor Dern, very slightly, over Hill as well but it’s a very close fight and you are giving Dern way too much credit for a number of things.

Dern and Virna don't attack subs the same, you should know this, you should know that it takes a special talent to be able to chain submissions like Dern does.

Mackenzie hasn’t been chaining submissions together that’s part of the problem. She almost exclusively hunts arm-bars and an armlock series that her previous three opponents have all been able to defend. She may have the best BJJ credentials in MMA, but she doesn’t present the same imminent risk of submission in MMA that someone like Charles Oliveira does to their opponent. A well-prepared opponent of similar athleticism we have seen in three straight fights is able to defend Mackenzie’s submission game. Hopefully Mackenzie has added a new wrinkle that will increase her efficacy in securing submissions, but it isn’t something any of us can be sure of or bank on.

Dern is more accomplished and proven fighter, Angela needs to win by the skin of her teeth to win this,

Dern has not beaten a single UFC opponent soundly, all of her fights that she has not won by stoppage have been close with Mackenzie losing at least one round on every judges scorecard. The only clear decision she has went too in the UFC was the one where she got blown out by Amanda Ribas. That’s not to say Mackenzie hasn’t deserved all the victories she has gotten but she is winning her fights on very thin margins just like Angela.

If Mackenzie comes to fight Angela with the same single minded focus on securing an arm-bar and ineffective takedown game she is going to get picked apart on the feet and lose a very straightforward five round decision just as she has in her last two five round fights.

 

[King-Ryan]

I got Fiore -130 and U2.5 -135 in the Silva fight as my two plays so far... any thoughts on these as well as any ideas for a third play?

 

[magpie878]

Several people brought up the "Anthony Smith is comfy with the UFC desk job, is he really focused on fighting" (PARAPHRASED) reason going into the Walker fight.. which may or may not be true..

Doesn't Hill do some behind the desk/mic work for UFC too? Is SHE still as focused on fighting as she used to be? Not to mention age.

I wouldn't feel comfortable betting either side, both have burned me. I'll probably play Dern, for better or worse.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Pulling guard isn’t considered a takedown and I dont care what dumb stats you throw at me her takedown/wrestling game is trash. Oh she took the ghost of Nina ansarov down. Big deal.

we call this wikicapping and mma math

Defending a bad bet +150 bro she’s not subbing anybody 50% of her fights. She’s not even at 50% in the ufc

Hannah cifers was beating her up until she caught a meme sub

she’s such a great sub artist but couldn’t sub yan with 4 solid minutes of top control.

Yan got put in a deep arm triangle. i dunno what fight you saw. Dern didn’t look that bad. All the last girls who went to decision have a lot of fights on their resume and have never been subbed. It’s not because of Dern’s lack ability, it’s their amazing ability not to get tapped.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I favor Dern, very slightly, over Hill as well but it’s a very close fight and you are giving Dern way too much credit for a number of things.



Mackenzie hasn’t been chaining submissions together that’s part of the problem. She almost exclusively hunts arm-bars and an armlock series that her previous three opponents have all been able to defend. She may have the best BJJ credentials in MMA, but she doesn’t present the same imminent risk of submission in MMA that someone like Charles Oliveira does to their opponent. A well-prepared opponent of similar athleticism we have seen in three straight fights is able to defend Mackenzie’s submission game. Hopefully Mackenzie has added a new wrinkle that will increase her efficacy in securing submissions, but it isn’t something any of us can be sure of or bank on.



Dern has not beaten a single UFC opponent soundly, all of her fights that she has not won by stoppage have been close with Mackenzie losing at least one round on every judges scorecard. The only clear decision she has went too in the UFC was the one where she got blown out by Amanda Ribas. That’s not to say Mackenzie hasn’t deserved all the victories she has gotten but she is winning her fights on very thin margins just like Angela.

If Mackenzie comes to fight Angela with the same single minded focus on securing an arm-bar and ineffective takedown game she is going to get picked apart on the feet and lose a very straightforward five round decision just as she has in her last two five round fights.

she has a rnc, a kneebar , armbar and a arm triangle.

So many ppl projecting other fighters performances to Hill, she isn’t there, she has been subbed before and put in close predicament lately. Her run isn’t impressive.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Yan got put in a deep arm triangle. i dunno what fight you saw. Dern didn’t look that bad. All the last girls who went to decision have a lot of fights on their resume and have never been subbed. It’s not because of Dern’s lack ability, it’s their amazing ability not to get tapped.

Did she sub her or not?

did Carla Esparza smash her face in with relative ease?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Did she sub her or not?

did Carla Esparza smash her face in with relative ease?

Dern is not a ground and pound specialist. makes the sub play more winnable.

Dern’s got a 50/50 chance if she wins sub/dec.

having several tight subs in her last fights against more game opponent than Hill gives a higher chance of success.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Dern is not a ground and pound specialist. makes the sub play more winnable.

Dern’s got a 50/50 chance if she wins sub/dec.

having several tight subs in her last fights against more game opponent than Hill gives a higher chance of success.

Dude the sub play sucks. I don’t care if it hits. There’s really no argument you can make for +150 to be value here

 

[GambleDaddy]

demopolous lines don't make sense. Demop by decision is +350 and she is +450 by submission. You are better off putting half a unit on each bet rather than taking demopolous straight up at +110

 

[Stat_Collector]

Dude the sub play sucks. I don’t care if it hits. There’s really no argument you can make for +150 to be value here

The small bet i made for sub is to get my money back for the 1st rnd sub. Im more riding on a 1st rnd sub win.

 

[Thesnake101]

Someone talk me out of siding with Latifi at +160. I think Nascimiento is quite shit (he was getting tagged quite a bit by Baudot who is garbage) and his path to victory will probably involve trying to get on top of Ilir and grind away, which seems easier said than done.

Only thing stopping me from pulling the trigger is the fact that Latifi's killer instinct is completely gone, so he won't be exploiting any advantage he could have on the feet in favor of doing more of the same lay and pray he's done at HW, which may or may not work out depending on how Rodrigo's bottom game is. Feel like whomever gets on top first wins the round, and at +160 I kinda want to side with the better wrestler.