UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax

[HumbleCoco]

Think I might have found the first dog on the card I might go for and I'm not happy about it. Sam Scilia might be from one of my least favourite gyms in sport; Sikjitsu where you aren't allowed to block leg kicks, but his Gavin Tucker's last few opponents have had pretty poor records and he's caught them in the middle of losing streaks (7-6, 7-9 at the time of fighting). Gavin certainly has some promise but the tape is hard to find and he's an ex-musician, not a wrestler. I think that's all Scilia needs, he can grind this one out like he did against Meza. I know he's on a skid but against Korean superboy (whom he landed against too) and Benitez where he was still competitive. No area of his game is bad, he's just been outclassed, I think it's a big stretch to think that Tucker has what it takes to do that yet and he should not be a favourite in this spot.

I'm going to wait for Bookie Beatdown because they've usually got good info on Canadian regional fighters to make sure I'm not missing anything but I do think there could be value there at current lines.

 

[lawmills2006]

Santos/Marshman o1.5 at around 2.10, under is 1.72...is an early finish really that likely in this fight? Feel like the over has some value

mmm, Marshman is tough as hell, and doesn't have the best grappling chops. Not watched tape on Santos yet, but from what I remember he is an in your face brawler.....

I wouldnt mind playing Marshman as dog, just because of the Celtic connection.

 

[wack3d]

Santos/Marshman o1.5 at around 2.10, under is 1.72...is an early finish really that likely in this fight? Feel like the over has some value

i am on the ov 1,5 +110 and fight goes to dec +320 i think Santos might fight very cautious here after two straight looses

 

[wack3d]

random info i found about Tucker:

BJJ Brown Belt under Renzo Gracie
Vegan

"His Extreme Cage Combat win against Chris Coggins on July 23, 2016, which brought his record to 9-0, was his first fight in over a year after knee surgery for a torn meniscus. It was his second major surgery after a shoulder injury in 2013 kept him out of fights for two years. Despite the setbacks, the southpaw kept training, showing up to the gym with a sling on his left arm while working on his right jab."

 

[Joseph Budden]

I was starting to regret making my 10 unit parlay a 3 teamer with Felder but rewatched some tape and feel really good about it.

Ricci was dominated by the scrawny 145lb junior bacon cheeseburger Jeremy Kennedy 5 months ago. He showed poor defense, no footwork, and gassed heavily. He was ranked #3 in Canada prior to his debut, I watched his previous fights and wasn't impressed. His base is Muay Thai with a bit of defensive grappling. He has average volume with low power, a lot of light leg kicks.

I think Felder's style is gonna fuck with him, Felder has a Muay Thai stance but he throws TKD kicks and other general MMA strikes that you don't often see from that stance. His strikes will hold a lot more weight with the new scoring, low volume isn't as big of a worry. He holds the advantage in all areas, if he chooses to he can manhandle Ricci in the clinch or on the ground, he has great trips from the clinch. This will be his easiest opponent in the UFC by far and I wouldn't be surprised to see a KO or a sub.

Comparing a fight against Kennedy to a fight against Felder doesn't make much sense though. Its a completely different style. Literally nothing is comparable between the two.

 

[Sham5916910]

Comparing a fight against Kennedy to a fight against Felder doesn't make much sense though. Its a completely different style. Literally nothing is comparable between the two.

Felder can grind too - did so against Daron.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Felder can grind too - did so against Daron.

There is a difference between grinding and having certain sweet spots in the clinch. Kennedy is a grinder. He gets in your face, gets you on the fence, and is always either finding openings to hit you or chain wrestle and phasing the two rather seemlessly. Felder gets in the clinch and all hes looking to do is find openings for knees or elbows while trying to stay wary of his defense. I don't think Felder has ever shot a takedown in the clinch (except maybe against Daron in round 3 after probably losing 2 rounds, but I don't remember clearly. Cruick is a super flake though). Its why guys like Ross Pearson of all people can out clinch and out wrestle Felder, hes too simple and not gritty at all in there.

I'm sorry but fuck #MatureBudden on this one. Its absolutely silly to play Felder close to -400.

 

[Rasdun]

I like Hendricks a lot as a dog. He should be better without the weight cut and Lombard's cardio has been shit iirc. He still has a good beard on him, can wrestle if need be and can still drop bombs on the feet. Let's remember that Lombard literally just got put out cold by retiring Hendo. I don't think Lombard will finish Hendricks in the 1st and at worst Johnny Cheeseburgers sholuld win rd 2 and 3..

betting Hendricks after round 1 may be a smart play...

 

[EzFlyer]

I actually might play him too. He's not afraid to bang and he's got power in both hands.

Santos needs space to throw his kicks but his hands don't look that good. When guys get out of his punching range he tends to throw like a girl.

This reads to me like first person to land their best shot wins. Guaranteed Darshman gets in his face and they're going to get into a firefight because it's not like either guy wrestles much.

Santos confidence is low coming off 2 fight skid with the RNC loss and before that, he had his lights shut out twice against Moose where his head hit the canvas.

He's also got a fly swatter tatted on his chest. Gonna go with the +140.

i'm with you. i like this guy. i have NOT santos ITD -128 and goes 3 +300 (small) -- i'm playing marshman ML, too.. just watching / waiting for best price

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Bigg Rigg is easy money, mark my words.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

I got so many plays for this card, easy money, dog money.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I don't really know how anybody can play Felder at these odds. -350? What the fuck, just no. Besides against Danny Castillo and Josh Burkman maybe (Can't really remember that fight), his 5 other UFC fights were pretty damn close or he lost. Ricci is a pretty tough guy and is a Canadian fighting in Canada. If this fight is close and ends up in a decision, which is most likely, it is not that far-fetched for Ricci to end up with a decision. Can Felder possibly blow him out of the water or win a wide margin decision victory? Absolutely, but this fight reeks of dog or pass

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Bigg Rigg is easy money, mark my words.

I got so many plays for this card, easy money, dog money.

@EzFlyer can you just ban this guy? He was pretty vocal about leaving this thread/forum for good if Holly lost her fight. Furthermore, he is just a troll who is clogging up the thread and is already yellowed. I think it is pretty justified in this case

 

[Joseph Budden]

I don't really know how anybody can play Felder at these odds. -350? What the fuck, just no. Besides against Danny Castillo and Josh Burkman maybe (Can't really remember that fight), his 5 other UFC fights were pretty damn close or he lost. Ricci is a pretty tough guy and is a Canadian fighting in Canada. If this fight is close and ends up in a decision, which is most likely, it is not that far-fetched for Ricci to end up with a decision. Can Felder possibly blow him out of the water or win a wide margin decision victory? Absolutely, but this fight reeks of dog or pass

Upon rewatch, the Burkman fight was VERY close. If Burk wasn't so prone to gradually slowing down as the fight progresses and throwing less and less volume, he could've won. I doubt Ricci slows down. He got grinded by Kennedy but still looks pretty fresh at the end. Felder's style is not one thats going to tax his cardio as heavily as fighting a guy like Kennedy does.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Upon rewatch, the Burkman fight was VERY close. If Burk wasn't so prone to gradually slowing down as the fight progresses and throwing less and less volume, he could've won. I doubt Ricci slows down. He got grinded by Kennedy but still looks pretty fresh at the end. Felder's style is not one thats going to tax his cardio as heavily as fighting a guy like Kennedy does.

Thanks for correcting me. So basically every single of Felder's UFC fights were close or he lost... The bookies/public overrate the shit out of him because of the Castillo KO

 

[Joseph Budden]

Thanks for correcting me. So basically every single of Felder's UFC fights were close or he lost... The bookies/public overrate the shit out of him because of the Castillo KO

Yeah i'm pretty damn shocked we have a few here who are actually willing to touch Felder. I'm not expecting everyone to feel the way I feel regarding the line being waayyy off and this being a favorable style for Ricci to have a close fight, but like you said at the very least its dog or pass just cause its Felder. That event 2 weeks ago where low level guys were getting upset should've heeded a big warning to everyone about playing someone like Felder at the price hes at.

 

[Sham5916910]

Bigg Rigg is easy money, mark my words.

Bet the house on Lombard ladies and gentlemen. The death knell just fell.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Bet the house on Lombard ladies and gentlemen. The death knell just fell.

Hendricks has got this, Lombard is old, throws no volume and has no cardio. Hendricks will have more energy at 185 and won't be damaging himself cutting weight, I really think this will be good for him. Tall long 185ers could give him big problems but not Lombard. Hendricks has better wrestling and should outwork Lombard to win a decision, easy money, dog money.

 

[chemmy]

Yeah i'm pretty damn shocked we have a few here who are actually willing to touch Felder. I'm not expecting everyone to feel the way I feel regarding the line being waayyy off and this being a favorable style for Ricci to have a close fight, but like you said at the very least its dog or pass just cause its Felder. That event 2 weeks ago where low level guys were getting upset should've heeded a big warning to everyone about playing someone like Felder at the price hes at.

I think you are right in that Ricci can keep it close, but I still don't think that he walks away with the victory more than 25% of the time. To be honest, I think the odds are just about right. Felder is constantly in nail-biters, and this will probably be no different, but Ricci "keeping it close" and actually winning the fight are two very different things. I won't be playing either guy here, but if the odds were a little bit closer like you suggest they should be, I'd definitely play Felder.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Bigg Rigg is easy money, mark my words.

Holm lost.