UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax

[trucido]

Liking +120 odds on FDGTD with McMann/Mazany, I think McMann is on another level and will blow this girl out of the water, she managed to sub Alexis Davis, a bjj black belt in her last fight, don't see she doesn't do it to a lower level fighter

 

[wack3d]

Why is there so much value on this line according to you guys? They both have not been over one and a half rounds more than 30% of the time in their career. Statistically speaking the line is more or less correct.

What is it about the match up that gives you the idea it goes over one and a half rounds?

i like it for the same fact that i like Browne Dec Santos been finished two times in a row and knows he will likely get cut if he looses another one so i could see him fighting cautious in this fight

 

[wack3d]

i think Esparza is going to manhandle Markos but ya not touching another big wmma favorite ever again only did a small bet on Esparza itd +450 i think there is a decent chance she finds a sub here

 

[HumbleCoco]

i think Esparza is going to manhandle Markos but ya not touching another big wmma favorite ever again only did a small bet on Esparza itd +450 i think there is a decent chance she finds a sub here

I'd be tempted to agree with you but it's so rare she seeks anything other than control and ground and pound and Markos isn't a grappling bum.

 

[Card]

http://www.thestatszone.com/articles/ufc-fight-night-105-derrick-lewis-vs-travis-browne

 

[Sadistics]

Lombard V Hendricks just screams draw. Might've gone a bit overboard here but put .4u on it for 28 units

 

[chemmy]

Lombard V Hendricks just screams draw. Might've gone a bit overboard here but put .4u on it for 28 units

What's your logic here -- Lombard 10-8 first round?

 

[wack3d]

I'd be tempted to agree with you but it's so rare she seeks anything other than control and ground and pound and Markos isn't a grappling bum.

true i wish her dec line was at +money so i could hit that but -200 is just silly Markos does put herself in bad positions as seen in her last fight and penna was able to take her down with ease and pass guard multiple times

 

[Sadistics]

What's your logic here -- Lombard 10-8 first round?

Exactly, especially with them being much more common now. Do we have confirmation of new rules this week?

 

[chemmy]

Exactly, especially with them being much more common now. Do we have confirmation of new rules this week?

Yep, new rules in effect as per Nova Scotia Boxing Authority.

 

[Oblivian]

Browne is better everywhere, the longer the fight lasts the more thee skill gap gets exposed. Think Lewis early or not at all. Other fav picks: Hendricks, Zahabi, Felder, Meerschaert and Ferreira. Less confident in McMann, Esparza, Ponz, Tucker and Marshman.

Honestly, that's sort of a hard argument to make. Can you really say Browne comes out on top in these?

Browne's offensive wrestling vs. BB defensive wrestling and vice versa?
Who has better ability to finish if it hits the ground?
Is Browne's standup really better? They both have pretty poor standup.
Power advantage?
Cardio?

Also, why assume Browne's chances get better in the later rounds? Lewis has won in the UFC in the 2nd round, 3rd round, and 4th round. His only losses came before the 6 minute mark in the fight. Browne's only got one finish outside of the 1st round.

I haven't played Lewis because he's a really frustrating guy to bet on, but I definitely won't bet Browne here. I honestly think he's very unskilled in MMA and gets by on killer instinct + finishing ability. Lewis isn't much different there in getting by on absolute power, but he's also shown the ability to not quit and get back up when taken down. I'd be very surprised to see Browne finish on the ground, so it's basically banking on Browne to get a win with his shitty standup.

 

[Jamah]

ya kinda worried feels like a trap somehow.. but i am still adding lol just makes no sense to me the line jumped almost 100 points over the last 24 hours

Luca picked Marshman vs Santos u1.5 rounds, and the over 1.5 line moved from 2.10 to 3.00

 

[EzFlyer]

Damn I fucked up I didn't know this card was going to be on a Sunday. I made plans around Saturday so I could catch the fights.

Times like these I wish I had a clone to watch the fights for me while I go out lol.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Unibet has some lines for this event:

Lewis +100
Browne -133

McMann -250
Liz +180

Hendricks -175
Lombard +130

Unibet has terrible lines. Why are you even playing there?

 

[Shoulder]

Unibet has terrible lines. Why are you even playing there?

I really have to agree, I still use them from time to time for some special lines or lines on events others won't have (Cage Warriors and such). But overall there lines are way worse than others

 

[lawmills2006]

Unibet has terrible lines. Why are you even playing there?

Because they offer some of the better markets out of the UK bookies. For the most part we're fucked in the UK.

 

[Jamah]

Because they offer some of the better markets out of the UK bookies. For the most part we're fucked in the UK.

what about bet365?

 

[lawmills2006]

what about bet365?

I love them, but limited to about 10 quid a bet most events.

 

[bruthead]

Anytime Marshaman losses, its usually over 1.5 rounds. This tells us his pretty durable when he's fully energised and he kinda is. .

Huh? His last two defeats were in R1, the most recent in 34 seconds. And before that we are going back three and a half years which is a long time ago for a developing fighter. And on his current win streak, only 2 of the 7 went o1.5 rounds. I'm always glad to back a good +200 dog but not seeing this one without reference to how the fighters will match-up style wise.

 

[bruthead]

I will be taking the draw for Lombard-Hendricks but ironically if we see a R1 like Lombard-Hendo that could now be 10-7.