UFN 109 - Gus vs GT - Sweden

[streetSub101]

al hassan is the same price range vs akhmedov as he was vs ward

kidding me? such value in akmhedov +225

Mmath Ward 3-2 had +225 then Omari shoud have the same odds.

Allhazan have total 7 fights and most of them was bums, total bum of Hassans opponents record is 46-46 while Only Omaris last 7 fights in Ufc have 137-45.

Be quick to put your monney on Omari cuz hes odds are gona drop

 

[Sham5916910]

He can still hit the body kick on a southpaw v Southpaw. Just like an orthodox can hit other orthodoxes with reaf body kicks. I'm not sold on either fighter but I'd bet on Ben small at dog odds or very small at close to even.

Ben fought in CAN and Germany(same night Sobota made his UFC debut).

Yeah he can still throw it but its not nearly the same weapon against a fellow spaw

 

[cagebrain]

For anyone Who Missed my bet recommendation yesterday of Camozzi/Smith o2.5 ... It was -165, now it's -210...

BUT they just released the opener for "goes to decision" at -165. Way better than -210 for the over.

 

[cagebrain]

General Props released on 5D

Cirkunov KO @ +515 might deserve a sprinkle...

Not Camozzi ITD @ -300 is good parlay fodder

 

[EzFlyer]

Cirkunov ko +515 and akhmedov dec +650

Small play on each

 

[EzFlyer]

General Props released on 5D

Cirkunov KO @ +515 might deserve a sprinkle...

Not Camozzi ITD @ -300 is good parlay fodder

O2.5 is better than not camozzi itd

I hit that cirk ko too

 

[Stunna77]

O2.5 is better than not camozzi itd

I hit that cirk ko too

Agreed regarding the O2.5 being better than not camozzi itd. I don't give Smith much of a chance at finishing. That said I hit his dec +375, as I do think he can easily utilize takedowns/control from the top to win rounds.

Also hit Till ITD +178

 

[DarkneT]

wow looks like i will be on quite a few dogs for this event..

Glover
Hadzovic
Akhmedov
Smith

still need to read this thread and watch some tape but at first sight the odds on these dogs seems kinda nuts

I'm with you on Akhmedov, impressed me last time out

 

[cagebrain]

O2.5 is better than not camozzi itd

I hit that cirk ko too

The lines shifted

The over is now -210 and not Camozzi ITD is -247

thats a percentage difference of 3%

Smith finishing Camozzi odds are probably greater than 3%

Although to offset that, Camozzi can finish Smith in the last 2.5 min and the over still hits

Hard to say which ones better now... Anyways its semantics they are pretty similar in value.

As long as you have money on guys not finishing in this fight, you are playing it right LOL!

 

[ChoKuRei]

How do you all feel about nordine vs the karate guy oliver enkamp? 7-0 pro mma, 9-0 amateur mma, black belt in karate has some sub wins, looks young with nordine being 35 going into this. @+400 now. Who has nordine really beat aside from one shot blasting a post usada erick silva? Might getcrazy here folks i can feel it

 

[piglord]

@wack3d i'm also interested in playing hadzovic, how do you think he will handle the takedown threat?

 

[Xenophon Hendrix]

A beginner's notes, I made these by watching video before the odds came out:

Marcin Held: Fast hands. Creative. Has some grappling ability, but he was outclassed by Diego Sanchez. Good takedowns. His grappling looked better against Joe Lauzon. Good all-arounder.

Damir Hadzovic: Reasonably light on his feet. Pressure fighter. Big for a lightweight. OK but not dazzling hand speed. Keeps his hands high.

Marcin Held vs Damir Hadzovic: I think Held has the edge.

 

[Tebowned]

Anyone think Reza can beat Silva? I'm kind of torn.

I just can't get over Franca subbing him in like a minute.
I bet Holbrook against him because of that FWIW lol.

Cons:
Reza is old as fuck.
Semi-retired.
Short notice.
Physically smaller.
Weak striking.

 

[Tebowned]

A beginner's notes, I made these by watching video before the odds came out:

Marcin Held: Fast hands. Creative. Has some grappling ability, but he was outclassed by Diego Sanchez. Good takedowns. His grappling looked better against Joe Lauzon. Good all-arounder.

Damir Hadzovic: Reasonably light on his feet. Pressure fighter. Big for a lightweight. OK but not dazzling hand speed. Keeps his hands high.

Marcin Held vs Damir Hadzovic: I think Held has the edge.

Has some grappling ability? He won the first round vs Diego and gassed in Mexico City. Not really outclassed.

He easily beat Lauzon imo.

Edit: well I scored it for held.

 

[EzFlyer]

Has some grappling ability? He won the first round vs Diego and gassed in Mexico City. Not really outclassed.

He easily beat Lauzon imo.

Edit: well I scored it for held.

Everyone scored it for held

And yea. Held is more than "some grappling ability"

He's more "amazing grappler with some striking ability"

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Anyone think Reza can beat Silva? I'm kind of torn.

I just can't get over Franca subbing him in like a minute.
I bet Holbrook against him because of that FWIW lol.

Cons:
Reza is old as fuck.
Semi-retired.
Short notice.
Physically smaller.
Weak striking.

I'm gonna bet Reza. The odds are still climbing too. Silva throws his right hand and that's pretty much all there is to it. He's got some knees here and there but he fights at such a slow pace.

I mean, he definitely has what it takes to beat Reza if he sprawls and brawls but the price is what makes me want to play Reza +160 in Sweden with the crowd on his side.

Worth mentioning that Silva scrambles to his feet really fast and he's apparently got a BJJ black belt but I dunno I think if Reza can get in his face and outwrestle him he can win the fight on top. At least he didn't punk out when Joe Duffy was beating him up, Reza kept coming for more.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Everyone scored it for held

And yea. Held is more than "some grappling ability"

He's more "amazing grappler with some striking ability"

Yeah Held is very good and just hasn't put it all together in the octagon so far. However, he should have got the nod against Joe and losing to Diego inside his octagon debut fighting on top of Mount Olympus shouldn't be used against him too bad.

 

[Sham5916910]

I'm gonna bet Reza. The odds are still climbing too. Silva throws his right hand and that's pretty much all there is to it. He's got some knees here and there but he fights at such a slow pace.

I mean, he definitely has what it takes to beat Reza if he sprawls and brawls but the price is what makes me want to play Reza +160 in Sweden with the crowd on his side.

Worth mentioning that Silva scrambles to his feet really fast and he's apparently got a BJJ black belt but I dunno I think if Reza can get in his face and outwrestle him he can win the fight on top. At least he didn't punk out when Joe Duffy was beating him up, Reza kept coming for more.

See where you are coming from. The guy he fought in his debut out struck him and hes a bjj guy.

 

[jack5603]

Coming off my best week ever, we'll see how this weekend goes. Just did tape study on the main event, and the results were what I assumed. Gus is the rightful pick, I'd cap him around -250ish so a little high right now. Glover's either going to have to knock him out, or wrestle him to a decision... I don't see the latter happening. As we saw in his fight with Cormier, Gus has decent TDD and some nice wrestling of his own. We also saw him implement his wrestling to beat Jan blachovitz.

They both seem hittable lately, but Gus can eat some bombs. Glover can too, but we saw him get rocked a few times in his last couple fights. Gus looks weakest when getting pressured, but I don't think Glover can keep up that pace for 5 rounds, and it will be very hard for him to knock Gus out. I see Gus winning a decision with volume, possibly a knockout when Glover starts to gas.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I have a 3 man play that pays +1160 but I'm limited to just 20$ max on 5dimes. I've been through so many accounts I don't know what to do anymore.