Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Mcgregorian, May 23, 2017.
Where the eff did you get 2.5?
You should have literally bet everything on that one lol.
Holly will finish Beth.
it won't probably go even to the 3 round.
Worlds between their striking.
Is this card not on tv?
Hollys striking has been grotesquely overrated since she beat ronda.
Holly works at one pace. Slow and steady. This will be a 5 round jab and leg kick session.
pokerstars/betstars have Holm/bethe O2,5 -175 (1.57) seems like a pretty good line compared to what other bookies have
edit: betsafe have same line at -166 (1.6) even better
I was away the whole day... but home now
Everywhere else I've looked has the O/U at 4.5
any brit sports books do fotn or event props?
damn that size difference between saff and rda
I hate to be the pointy elbows guy, but I find Holm's ridiculously long hair very unattractive.
For me it's a special event. I'm in Perth so its the first evening UFC i have gotten to watch in a long time. When the UFC is on in Melbourne it's a stupid midday start.
The usual for me when it's on in America is i wake upSunday morning at 5am to be ready. The plus side to that is not drinking and betting. Ive made all my bets for tonight so i can drink and not fuck up with greed....
125lbs- JUSTIN SCOGGINS (11-3-0) vs ULKA SASAKI (19-4-2)
From a potential standpoint Justin Scoggins is a top five flyweight and bantamweight contender IMO. He is still a very young kid and he is maturing. Growing pains have gotten in the way of his success as he has continued dropping the baton every time he is 10 yards from the finish line in a race he's about to win by some distance.
Specifically, Scoggins was smashing a them top 5 ranked flyweight contender John Moraga unmercilessly. He was seemingly poised to break out and head to an easy win before inexplicably gift wrapping Moraga a third round get out of jail free guillotine card. Most recently, after being forced to make the move to the Bantamweight division, Scoggins was running roughshod over Brazilian super prospect Pedro Munhoz before once again stepping on the proverbial rake and thus letting the Brazilian snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.Shooting in for an ill-advised take down served up his head on a silver platter.
At this point it's a comedy routine. Sideshow Scoggins can't quit stepping on rakes .
Hell, without these ridiculous low fight IQ slip ups, Scoggins could potentially be 7-0 in the UFC and off to the races as a superstar. Picking up for Pedro Munhoz is no easy feat, and you only need to look at his thorough domination of number three ranked flyweight contender Ray Borg to see just how good this kid is.
Save for his shiny record, a win over Willie Gate in his Flyweight debut, has been the zenith of Sasaki's MMA career. Certainly he has a starling resume chart for victories, but most of them came on the Japanese regional circuit in the estimable Shooto promotion. Particularly, he's had little success at all in the UFC, winning just 1 of his 4 fights in the octagon. .Worse still, his losses haven't been against stellar competition. Just one of them were even ranked in the top 25 in fact.
The lone ranked fighter was former title challenger Wilson Reis who physically overwhelmed the Japanese athlete though Ulka put performance put on a very admirable performance in defeat.
As you mentioned the one thing that the Japanese made of has on his size is range. At 5'10" tall, he will own a prodigious 3 and 5 inch height and reach advantage respectively. That with Scoggins clocking in a 5'7" tall with his 66 inch wingspan.
Nevertheless, it is their preferred way of striking that decides this fight to me. That is to say, Sasaki does his optimism damage working in tight in the clinch whereas Scoggins is more confident playing the role of the sharpshooter all the fringe. Sasaki consistently smothers his reach advantage and Scoggins gets every inch out of his..
Everything seems to be gone right for Scoggins this week his battle with the skills seem to be behind him. At least for now he appears to be in prime physical shape. What's more, the American should be able to negate the reach advantage with feints, speed and the ever present foot threat of a takedown. Scoggins has a brilliant blast double leg takedown where he completely trucks his opponent and absolutely blows through them. I believe that he will have success doing just as if he so chooses.
If recent interviews are to be trusted, his sole focus is shooting these take downs but in doing so with a keen sense of danger. No longer trusting hisin the night in a natural abilities to save him from tricky submissions.
By all measures, Scoggins seems to have turned a corner and we should start saying giant leaps in his improvement at age 25. Speed bumps or to be expected.
Ultimately I believe that after numerous leg kicks batter the Japanese fighters inside and outside lower extremities, Scoggins will take advantage of a hesitant Sasaki who is tired of getting beat to the legs. This is where Scoggins will fake low and go high with a head kick that knocks his opponent down,. From there I think that Scoggins jumps on him and sinks in a submission.
Bullet points: TLDR VERSION
125lbs- JUSTIN SCOGGINS (11-3-0) vs ULKA SASAKI (19-4-2)
Made weight easily
Could be undefeated. Makes silly mistakes
Has high level wrestling and submission skill
Believe he's matured after reading/listening to interviews
Has the diversity and skins potential to be future FLW champion
Long rangy Karate stylist. Very similar to Wonderboy but more aggressive.
Unless an ACME falls on his head Wile E. Coyote style, Scoggins a virtual lock.
Sasaki is 3 inches taller. Scoggins 5″ reach advantage
Mediocre wrestling and serviceable striking but wax real pop
Very gangly sure of her 125 pound fighter. Excellent back takes
BET: Scoggins +700 decision prop. Scogg ITD
Would just like to present a counterpoint about the Sasaki/Scoggins bout, Goodfella: I like a small play on Ulka Sasaki at +435 against Justin Scoggins for four reasons.
1- Scoggins just dropped back down in weight to flyweight, which is always a concern.
2- Scoggins has been submitted twice recently in fights that he was supposed to win and Sasaki is a crafty submission artist.
3- Sasaki is tall and big for flyweight.
4- Scoggins traveled far to fight in Singapore while Sasaki lives relatively close by in Japan.
Sasaki's submission line is also tempting at +435 and even his decision line at +1325 has value in my opinion.
Sasaki by sub on 5dimes is +610. I really don't see him winning any other way besides a very very small chance at (T)Ko. I'd be literally shocked if he wins by decision.
Sasaki moved to NYC a few months back. Has been training there and in New Jersey at Team Carnicella.
Fight pass only..
I think she finishes her as well. The ko prop was at almost +300 the other day and now it's at -100. Was hoping it would get better and it got a lot worse. I really do t like any of her lines right now.
I might try and put together a few bets for the card. Haven't researched much at all. The lines are juiced. Obviously there will be an upset. Looking for some value.
Might look to parlay a few guys. Post usada and Iv rda might be fadable at this point. Wouldn't be to comfortable taking his ml after his last few fights. Too many unknowns
Tybura is a pretty well rounded fighter. Aa is another fadable fighter at this point in his career. When It comes to heavyweights I don't know if there is such thing as a bad chin. When you get caught with that amount of force you're going to go to sleep, unless you have a super human early career mark hunt beard. Winnable fight for aa. Over could be a good play
Bruce Leroy is actually at -310? Really?
Although Gomi might be cooked the o/u at 1.5 and +135 I feel is pretty aggressive
bt sports goes live at 1pm uk for last 2 1/2 hrs
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