UFN 111 - Holm vs Correia - Singapore

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TheOneTrueKing said:
early thoughts on arlovski tybura. could be value on the under or doesn't go the distance. from memory arlovski fights turn into staring contests against a certain type of opponent. starting tape now but i don't think tybra will make it that type of fight. early lean is that they will trade enough and arlovski chin and power should make some value here. thoughts?
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Arlovski pulled the trigger pretty well against Overeem and Ngannou but got ko'd. He did the starring contest thing against Mir and won. If he thinks he can outpoint Tybura and not get caught, same could happen here.
 
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What do You think about
Arlovski over 1.5r
Colby over 1.5r

Both should hit
 
ATT is good, I thought I won the Abdurakhimov fight, but I realized I need to put my foot on the gas a little bit more, I shouldn't have held back, I try to be different than most heavyweights, the UFC retreat was great, keep the hot streak going, training hard, 1.5 week early to get adjusted, Asker is tough, coming off a win, I have all the advantages, I have to be smart, if he takes me down, I'll get up, I'll be ready, Steve Mocco, Arlovski, Bigfoot, lots of guys here, he won't get out of the first round, been training for 4-5 months

 
Yotsuya said:
Arlovski pulled the trigger pretty well agains Overeem and Ngannou but got ko'd. He did the starring contest thing against Mir and won. If he thinks he can outpoint Tybura and not get caught, same could happen here.
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tybura is not gonna be scarred to throw imo. don't think arlovski gonna have that option
 
My early thoughts... coming from a guy that is not being an active bettor lately:

Arlovski vs Tybura:
I have to go with Marcin. I´m not paying him as a big favorite (my bookie has not released odds yet) but Arlovski looks worse every fight. I read people talking about advantages. I think he should have better hands but the problem is that he does not throw any punches lately. He got into a staring contest with a very fat and gassed Frank Mir of all the people.
Only fight he looked kind of good since coming back in 2014 was against Browne and that was a sloppy brawl against a sloppy brawler. You can count Bigfoot fight too but Silva is probably the only HW that is more shot that AA.
He looked like bad against Schaub (I thought he lost), Mir, Miocic, Overeem, Barnett and Francis.
Also I believe his TDD is overrated and he can get taken down by the bigger younger guy.
Tybura fights for your money. Not a spectacular fighter (his KO over Pesta was nice tho) but he is all around a pretty solid HW. I think he is well rounded enough to freeze Arlovski and throw him off his game (if he has any game today).
Arlovski will be gone after dropping 5 in a row.

Holm vs Correia:
This is a mismatch. Yeah, not smart for any bettor pay -500 juice on anyone but besides that... how the hell Bethe beats Holly.
Holm has not looked stellar in a while but Bethe has below Ronda level of striking, no threat of takedowns and is not like she is a big strong grinder. She will be a punching bag for 25 minutes if her chin does not leave him before that.
I honestly dont see a path to victory for Correia here. She is just terrible. Im tempted to pay the juice. This is a waste of a main event but I guess they want to keep Holly relevant somehow.
 
I feel as confident in my standup as my wrestling, working on it for 6 years, I'm more athletic, I'm going to dominate on the ground, (about masvidal) you can't leave it in the judges scorecards, I'm ready for this step, we both come forward, he slows down in the 3rd, for sure he'll hit the mat, I'm healthy, going for the finish, I'm at my peak, anyone in the top 5 after, have trained with Masvidal for 6 years, Steve Montgomery gave me the tall lanky look to prepare for (6'2"), going to be a cinderella story

 
I'm very focused to being the best, I'm just happy Kim accepted the fight

 
I'm from a small island (Guam), last minute replacement, getting medicals, I just came off a fight, weight is good, so hard part of the camp is done, I'm a fan of Li, it works with my style, it won't be a boring fight, we both try to finish, he's a vet, train at BJJ gym here

 
TheOneTrueKing said:
tybura is not gonna be scarred to throw imo. don't think arlovski gonna have that option
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Tybura is not the very dynamic/high volume striker, so Arlovski could alternate clinch work and ranged fighting for three rounds without getting caught.
 
NorthernLights said:
When was the last time they did that? Ohmbet usually has livebetting for the entire cards though.
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Dont think I've seen livebet for the full card on bet365 for the 9 months I've been betting on mma, they usually have the prelims (not the exclusive prelim), but sometimes only the main card
 
NorthernLights said:
When was the last time they did that? Ohmbet usually has livebetting for the entire cards though.
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I'm sure the Germany card where Barnett and Arlovski fought I live bet the whole thing but now thinking about it, it might have been betfair
 
I didn't go the UFC retreat to train, I injured my knee before my last fight but have been healthy since Feb, but no one wanted to fight me, Shelby said I'm the most ducked fighter, my pace, wrestling, I'm a complete fighter, I do better what he's good at, I'm not the same fighter, he's getting older, fighting once a year, I train hard, I will finish him

 
Marcin Tybura vs Andrei Arlovski: I'm no expert, but I don't think I'd want to bet the over or under on this one. Arlovski looks like he still has faster hand speed and movement, but he gets knocked out so easily. Tybura is a better kicker than puncher. The fight could very well be over the first time he lands a kick to Arlovski's head. How can anyone predict when that might happen?

Criticism of this thought welcome.
 
From what I can remember - I believe fighters who change camps do worse overall.
 
Card said:
From what I can remember - I believe fighters who change camps do worse overall.
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I think it all depends on the fighter. I mean JJ looked better than ever in her last fight after changing camps.
 
Watching again Overrem/Arlovski fight, i think Andrei did very good against Alister`s kicks (except the front kick before the KO), he even tried to counter some of them. He played the whole fight with very high right hand. I dont think Tybura can surprise experienced striker like Arlovski with highkick early in the fight. But if AA gases the things are going to be different.
 
I've been asking for this fight, he's a legend, it's an honour, I thought I beat Damien Brown, but after i got this fight, the motivation came again, I've fought at the first Singapore event, last fight in Australia threw me off, I'll fly out 2 weeks to acclimate, two guys willing to trade, we're both coming off losses, FOTN, both willing to bang, pick the right shots, when I got this fight, I was doing high level BJJ training in Abu Dubai, they have good food there, so I had to stay disinclined, finished my camp in California, Huntington beach, First round finish, look for openings, 2016 wasn't a good year for me, I'm happy Gomi took this fight, I'm a risky fight for him, get back on track

 
Forgot Tuck lost to Damien Brown... man that's rough.
 
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