UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

[Gugabe]

clay guida is a killer?

Guida's not a champion, but he's lasted 24 fights and 11 years in the UFC.

 

[quincy k]

Guida's not a champion, but he's lasted 24 fights and 11 years in the UFC.

guida is a point fighter, far from a killer

 

[Wiktoruspro]

guida is a point fighter, far from a killer

I think Lauzon thinks different

 

[Card]

Will be a huge win, tough opponent, push the pace, be relentless, let see who breaks, I know I won't break, put work and cash out, would love to fight Caraway again, my special move is the RKO from out of nowhere, Serra Longo all day

 

[Card]

The whole top 10 was booked, we have friendly coaches, but Moraes stepped up, we didn't expect this fight to happen this soon, Yahya was a stay busy fight, this is a bigger fight, they come down and train with us a couple times, Mark Henry brings his guys, good thing I didn't go down there and cross train, I just need to figure it out and get after it, I feel like he's very similar to Barao, but he has footwork and constant circling to his left, I have something for that, push the pace until someone breaks, and that will be him, this game is mental, this will either be really good or really bad, but I promise violence, and a tremendous pace, finally living up to my potential, after the Assuncao fight I realized I need to be more gritty, I can take a punch, I can stand and trade, I'm eating those shots and Moraes is not, he's getting glassy eyed, longer bigger, keep him on he end of my reach, punchs and kicks, try to put him down, lowest my weight has ever been

 

[t6p]

Ortega's massively outkicked his coverage and I don't think he'll stay in the FW top 15. His only good win was the comeback against Moicano, who I'm not even convinced on as a fighter since he beat a fairly-flat Jeremy Stephens.

Stephen’s looked flat because he was chasing Moicano all night and he wasn’t able to cut off the cage. When Ortega fought Moicano, I think he showed the ability to do just that. Although he did eat plenty of shots for his trouble.

I haven’t bet either side, but I believe you’re underestimating Ortega.

 

[michi972]

@EzFlyer are you on Chorhell or Holtzman?

 

[Yotsuya]

Stephen’s looked flat because he was chasing Moicano all night and he wasn’t able to cut off the cage. When Ortega fought Moicano, I think he showed the ability to do just that. Although he did eat plenty of shots for his trouble.

My recollection is, that Moicano did not much even try to fight at range for the first two rounds, but was happy just trading.

 

[ill800]

My recollection is, that Moicano did not much even try to fight at range for the first two rounds, but was happy just trading.

Moicano stood in the pocket most of the fight. There were times he got on his bike and had success playing the counter game. He was likely winning the fight until he decided to take Ortega down in the third round, giving up his neck. He didn’t keep his head in Ortega’s chest and got tapped quickly

Ortega isn’t a great striker. He’s showed improvement but he still eats a lot of punches. He’s got a great chin and he has a little bit of power.

Cub is wild and sloppy at times. Not great fight iq. He could’ve taken lobov down and dominated him on the ground but he would rather trade. He likes to kick which could end up resulting in an Ortega td.

Got taken down by lobov out of the clinch. I could see Ortega catching a kick or tying him up after a missed strike.

5 rds is a long time for cub to keep Ortega off of him, especially with how cub likes to pressure

 

[Stunna77]

After rewatching last few from each I have the same feelings as ill800. Bet Cub hard at -125 before rewatching tape as I thought lines would move the other way. After digging deeper I don't like a huge bet on Cub, will probably arb down lbing assuming better odds. Cub's speed and variety standing should give Ortega issues and if Cub comes in with a JW gameplan, he should take it. That said, Ortega did a much better job pressuring Mociano and Cub found himself in some dicey situations agasint Choi that would get him in trouble against Ortega. If Ortega can keep that pressure against a more powerful puncher and Cub is content to clinch and grapple like he did vs Choi, I could see him getting caught. Favor cub for sure, but my current 4.2u on him was overbet. Hedged a bit with Ortega rd 5 and beleive Cub wins early rounds to allow me to lessen my exposure at better odds.

 

[ill800]

After rewatching last few from each I have the same feelings as ill800. Bet Cub hard at -125 before rewatching tape as I thought lines would move the other way. After digging deeper I don't like a huge bet on Cub, will probably arb down lbing assuming better odds. Cub's speed and variety standing should give Ortega issues and if Cub comes in with a JW gameplan, he should take it. That said, Ortega did a much better job pressuring Mociano and Cub found himself in some dicey situations agasint Choi that would get him in trouble against Ortega. If Ortega can keep that pressure against a more powerful puncher and Cub is content to clinch and grapple like he did vs Choi, I could see him getting caught. Favor cub for sure, but my current 4.2u on him was overbet. Hedged a bit with Ortega rd 5 and beleive Cub wins early rounds to allow me to lessen my exposure at better odds.

I’m almost thinking of middling cub dec and Ortega sub, the two most likely paths of victory for each fighter

 

[Stunna77]

I’m almost thinking of middling cub dec and Ortega sub, the two most likely paths of victory for each fighter

Seems safe enough, but I hate the idea of getting stuck for a big loss should a Cub KO or Ortega dec happen. Ortega is very hittable and yeah Cub doens't have one hitter quitter power, but if he puts together a good combo or lands one of his headkicks flush, I could see him KO'ing Ortega. Ortega hasn't been in there with a striker this skilled yet. Ortega dec a little less plausible.

 

[quincy k]

I’m almost thinking of middling cub dec and Ortega sub, the two most likely paths of victory for each fighter

ortega has zero five round experience, as opposed to cub being proven, and also missed weight last fight.

i actually thought that cub round 4 and 5 were worth a stab at +3300

 

[ill800]

ortega has zero five round experience, as opposed to cub being proven, and also missed weight last fight.

i actually thought that cub round 4 and 5 were worth a stab at +3300

He’s actually been 5 rds twice and has a great gas tank and chin

 

[oliverinsix]

ortega has zero five round experience, as opposed to cub being proven, and also missed weight last fight.

i actually thought that cub round 4 and 5 were worth a stab at +3300

None in the UFC, but Ortega's been on the winning end of two five round decisions prior

 

[quincy k]

He’s actually been 5 rds twice and has a great gas tank and chin

sorry, i was referring to ufc competition

some people are discounting cubs power because he has no recent stoppages but he has power in both his left and right along with kicks.

 

[MacPherson911]

Doing some film study on Merab Dashboard. Why the fuck is he a +133 favorite against Saenz? Saenz going through a rough patch, but those are competitive losses against decent BWs.

Yes! This is what I’ve been saying! Better believe I hit that +135 line real hard

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Doing some film study on Merab Dashboard. Why the fuck is he a +133 favorite against Saenz? Saenz going through a rough patch, but those are competitive losses against decent BWs.

Is there film on Merab? I just see the spinning backfist and some old fights from Georgia. Not much recent stuff.

Anyway he seems like the rightful fave bc he's much younger, more athletic, better reach, good chance he physical overwhelms Saenz. But who the fuck knows what holes in his game a vet like Saenz may be able to exploit. This fight is really hard to bet either way IMO

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Also has anybody found Benito Lopez recent fights vs Newson or Vinson? I just see his fight vs Peterson and some super fast finishes against scrubs. Hard to get a solid read on him based on that.

 

[quincy k]

None in the UFC, but Ortega's been on the winning end of two five round decisions prior

will brooks had five round experience in bellator and it did nothing to help him in the ufc.

cubs been five with stevens, lobov and edgar, big diference.

dont know why people are so certain that ortega will hold advantages in the 4th and 5th round.