UFN 139 Korean Zombie vs Rodriguez
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Beneil sucks, he will lose.
Im betting Moises
Im betting Moises
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Hmmm. It's hard to tell with the shirts but I would say GDR and Barber hold a significant pants height advantage over their respective opponents.
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KZ -105 on 5D
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Biggest issue that i have with Barber.
-UFC prompting her.
-Not enough experience.
-Facing an opponent with a number of skill tools to win.
-Hometown advantages doesn't always get you the win.
Now if Barber had only a few more wins or losses i wouldn't mind supporting her or betting her. But this seems rather to early for her.
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just watched some of their fights and i don't get the juice. barber doesn't really have elite striking, but she will hold a signficant size advantage. her opponent isn't great but she's decent. she's got some pop too. i bet FDNGTD
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Have you seen Barber's fights and compared them to Cifers' fights? Two of the people Barber beat, Mallory Martin and Jamie Colleen, the latter by domination and stoppage, would straight-up beat Cifers themselves. Possibly easily.
Barber is massively larger, stronger, more athletic, and has much better cardio, while being far more skilled in every area of the game. She can easily win a kickboxing match, but she can also clinch whenever she wants to, and beat up Cifers there. And if Barber gets a takedown, that could easily be the end of the fight right there.
I honestly struggle with thinking of a single scenario where Cifers could win the fight outside of weird shit like Barber breaking her leg walking to the center of the Octagon to start round 1.
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By the way i also think Barber could win. But i usual play on Draftkings to make the bets. Six fighters. Its not easy lol.
If i wasn't on DK i would have probably just bet on Barber straight forward with a TKO or Dec.
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Alright I didn't do any long breakdowns this time around because there was a lot of tape to watch and those takes a while to do. Still want to weigh in on a few fights and seek out different opinions.
- GDR vs Pennington -
Of course there is a very obvious grappler vs striker dynamic here, but I keep hearing people say that GDR is dead on her back. Looking through tape and the last time she was actually put on her back was in 2013, and against the greatest female bantamweight ever. Some research and it appears that GDR got her purple belt in jiu jitsu 3 years later in 2016. So she has worked on her grappling. Most tellingly is her improvement in TDD. She didn't look all that great defending TDs against even 115 lber Anna Elmose. Less than a year later, she stuffs 8/8 takedown attempts by Holly (I heard this fact but haven't double checked). She looked strong clinching against one of the strongest clinchers at 135 (Holly was holding Cyborg stationary for long periods of time even). There's real progress in the grappling department there, and Rocky really isn't that great of a submission artist. I don't see GDR getting caught unless she's hit the wall due to age, or unless she's out of shape and gasses like Andrade did (who was fighting 2 weight classes up against a giant BW in Rocky).
Rocky, on the other hand, has very lazy TD attempts in open space and seems to prefer bum rushing girls to the fence. The way she charged with her head down let Nunes just grab a thai plum and punish her with knees. GDR's clinch is just as good if not better, and she just has to watch her balance, which is pretty good. If GDR can fight off Holly's fence takedowns, Rocky should have even less of a chance.
More important here is the disparity in striking skill. Rocky has good fundamental punching technique but her lack of combination punching made her a sitting duck against Nunes. GDR's strikes are pinpoint accurate, and she's not there to be hit on the counter.
Then you have the fact that Rocky just went through a hellacious ass whooping just 5 months ago where she injured her leg. It feels like she's being rushed into this hometown card and all the interviews make it sound like she got way out of shape (170 lbs wtf) and wishes she had more time to rehab her leg. A fat and less mobile Rocky is just the wrong direction when facing someone like GDR. Now with a botched weight cut, GDR TKO is more likely than Rocky submission in my opinion. But GDR decision would be my pick. And -170 was a play for me.
- Maycee Barber vs Hannah Ciphers -
I've been keeping an eye on "The Futrue Barber" mainly because she's got a ton of holes in her game and I wanted a good spot to fade her. This is probably not the spot to do that though. Ciphers is a tough brawler but she is absolutely tiny for the division (was able to fight at 110 lbs on short notice just a year ago) AND she has a very bad ground game. Maycee is probably going to look to throw her 5 kick to 1 punch offense with that bug eyed stare at Ciphers. While this might work for a bit at range, Barber looks terribly uncomfortable in the pocket. Maybe her striking has improved but, on the feet, I expect Ciphers to hit her a few times and make her take the fight to the ground where Barber can pound out Ciphers or make her give up the back for a choke. The two are both pretty aggressive and are more offense than defense so I liked the under 2.5 at +130 and some Maycee sub (although I think maybe GnP is also likely). We don't know how Maycee reacts to getting cracked either, so the under takes a Ciphers TKO into account (which at around +980 wasn't bad).
- ABC vs Ashley Yoder -
I feel like I'm alone on this one. And yes I have a habit of picking the somewhat athletic but disappointing WMMA flake. It worked out for me betting Jessica Eye vs JRC, and on Chookagian vs Hill. I'm going to have to go with the unpopular girl here again.
Yoder is getting some respect here because the way she fought in her losses was admirable. Yes she made the Kish fight close, and she had her moments in the Hill fight. And took Dern to a split decision. ABC on the other hand has been absolutely wrecked in her 3 losses in the UFC, only managing to beat the nut low fighters in Magana and Elmose (poor Elmose who had to fight GDR of all people 2 weights up). After tape though, it's pretty clear that Yoder's success was just as due to poor performances on her opponents part than her own awkward and sometimes effective style.
Kish was making all sorts of poor fight choices in her fight with Yoder, selling out on high risk subs and putting herself on her back. This put Yoder in good spots many times in their fight, but she wasn't able to do anything with them in terms of GnP or hutning for subs. Instead, she showed her poor positional control by letting Kish escape each time, sometimes by just hip thrusting and bench pressing Yoder off of her. This same lack of strength and positional control she showed against Hill. She was able to get Hill down, once against the fence and another with an extremely rare shot from distance. In the first TD, Hill stood up almost immediately. In the second, she was only able to stay on top for half a minute landing nothing before trying to jump on Hill's back and letting her get back up. It's worth noting that Yoder hasn't subbed anyone besides low level girls using an armbar. This speaks to maybe her lack of strength or control or both.
ABC is faster and more athletic. Her vaunted boxing isn't great, but it's still a level higher in terms of speed and balance than the slow and telegraphed striking of Yoder. ABC has been able to maintain position and land GnP on girls who admittedly aren't high level (the best maybe being Jamie Moyle). However, she does do damage and scores points, unlike Yoder who is constantly scrambling for the sake of it.
ABC's losses also don't seem too bad in retrospect. She fought off Suarez going strength for strength for most of Rd1 before finally succombing to a dominant position and getting pounded out. She even had her moments against a very strong Aspen Ladd way back in the day. Yoder is closer to the
Maganas of the world than the Suarez's in terms of strong positional grappling, and is nowhere near as slick as a Calvillo. I expect the grappling exchanges to be back and forth, but ti's more likely than not that ABC ends up looking better due to more time controlling and actually landing ground strikes.
With a slight advantage to ABC in all the important areas, I make her out to be a small favorite here. +140 therefore is a great line for a favorite and ABC by decision +200 was probably the best value for this matchup.
I also capped Shelton/Morales and have a bet on Shelton, but there's been enough talk about that one here.
- GDR vs Pennington -
Of course there is a very obvious grappler vs striker dynamic here, but I keep hearing people say that GDR is dead on her back. Looking through tape and the last time she was actually put on her back was in 2013, and against the greatest female bantamweight ever. Some research and it appears that GDR got her purple belt in jiu jitsu 3 years later in 2016. So she has worked on her grappling. Most tellingly is her improvement in TDD. She didn't look all that great defending TDs against even 115 lber Anna Elmose. Less than a year later, she stuffs 8/8 takedown attempts by Holly (I heard this fact but haven't double checked). She looked strong clinching against one of the strongest clinchers at 135 (Holly was holding Cyborg stationary for long periods of time even). There's real progress in the grappling department there, and Rocky really isn't that great of a submission artist. I don't see GDR getting caught unless she's hit the wall due to age, or unless she's out of shape and gasses like Andrade did (who was fighting 2 weight classes up against a giant BW in Rocky).
Rocky, on the other hand, has very lazy TD attempts in open space and seems to prefer bum rushing girls to the fence. The way she charged with her head down let Nunes just grab a thai plum and punish her with knees. GDR's clinch is just as good if not better, and she just has to watch her balance, which is pretty good. If GDR can fight off Holly's fence takedowns, Rocky should have even less of a chance.
More important here is the disparity in striking skill. Rocky has good fundamental punching technique but her lack of combination punching made her a sitting duck against Nunes. GDR's strikes are pinpoint accurate, and she's not there to be hit on the counter.
Then you have the fact that Rocky just went through a hellacious ass whooping just 5 months ago where she injured her leg. It feels like she's being rushed into this hometown card and all the interviews make it sound like she got way out of shape (170 lbs wtf) and wishes she had more time to rehab her leg. A fat and less mobile Rocky is just the wrong direction when facing someone like GDR. Now with a botched weight cut, GDR TKO is more likely than Rocky submission in my opinion. But GDR decision would be my pick. And -170 was a play for me.
- Maycee Barber vs Hannah Ciphers -
I've been keeping an eye on "The Futrue Barber" mainly because she's got a ton of holes in her game and I wanted a good spot to fade her. This is probably not the spot to do that though. Ciphers is a tough brawler but she is absolutely tiny for the division (was able to fight at 110 lbs on short notice just a year ago) AND she has a very bad ground game. Maycee is probably going to look to throw her 5 kick to 1 punch offense with that bug eyed stare at Ciphers. While this might work for a bit at range, Barber looks terribly uncomfortable in the pocket. Maybe her striking has improved but, on the feet, I expect Ciphers to hit her a few times and make her take the fight to the ground where Barber can pound out Ciphers or make her give up the back for a choke. The two are both pretty aggressive and are more offense than defense so I liked the under 2.5 at +130 and some Maycee sub (although I think maybe GnP is also likely). We don't know how Maycee reacts to getting cracked either, so the under takes a Ciphers TKO into account (which at around +980 wasn't bad).
- ABC vs Ashley Yoder -
I feel like I'm alone on this one. And yes I have a habit of picking the somewhat athletic but disappointing WMMA flake. It worked out for me betting Jessica Eye vs JRC, and on Chookagian vs Hill. I'm going to have to go with the unpopular girl here again.
Yoder is getting some respect here because the way she fought in her losses was admirable. Yes she made the Kish fight close, and she had her moments in the Hill fight. And took Dern to a split decision. ABC on the other hand has been absolutely wrecked in her 3 losses in the UFC, only managing to beat the nut low fighters in Magana and Elmose (poor Elmose who had to fight GDR of all people 2 weights up). After tape though, it's pretty clear that Yoder's success was just as due to poor performances on her opponents part than her own awkward and sometimes effective style.
Kish was making all sorts of poor fight choices in her fight with Yoder, selling out on high risk subs and putting herself on her back. This put Yoder in good spots many times in their fight, but she wasn't able to do anything with them in terms of GnP or hutning for subs. Instead, she showed her poor positional control by letting Kish escape each time, sometimes by just hip thrusting and bench pressing Yoder off of her. This same lack of strength and positional control she showed against Hill. She was able to get Hill down, once against the fence and another with an extremely rare shot from distance. In the first TD, Hill stood up almost immediately. In the second, she was only able to stay on top for half a minute landing nothing before trying to jump on Hill's back and letting her get back up. It's worth noting that Yoder hasn't subbed anyone besides low level girls using an armbar. This speaks to maybe her lack of strength or control or both.
ABC is faster and more athletic. Her vaunted boxing isn't great, but it's still a level higher in terms of speed and balance than the slow and telegraphed striking of Yoder. ABC has been able to maintain position and land GnP on girls who admittedly aren't high level (the best maybe being Jamie Moyle). However, she does do damage and scores points, unlike Yoder who is constantly scrambling for the sake of it.
ABC's losses also don't seem too bad in retrospect. She fought off Suarez going strength for strength for most of Rd1 before finally succombing to a dominant position and getting pounded out. She even had her moments against a very strong Aspen Ladd way back in the day. Yoder is closer to the
Maganas of the world than the Suarez's in terms of strong positional grappling, and is nowhere near as slick as a Calvillo. I expect the grappling exchanges to be back and forth, but ti's more likely than not that ABC ends up looking better due to more time controlling and actually landing ground strikes.
With a slight advantage to ABC in all the important areas, I make her out to be a small favorite here. +140 therefore is a great line for a favorite and ABC by decision +200 was probably the best value for this matchup.
I also capped Shelton/Morales and have a bet on Shelton, but there's been enough talk about that one here.
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Alright. Getting bigger on Dariush. The only fight he's looked bad in is getting bumrushed by Hernandez, who's consolidated as being a decent talent and kinda just never let him get settled. Moises doesn't have the pressure game of a Hernandez, and Dariush'll diddle him once he gets comfortable.
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Excellent analysis as usual, turbozed.
Agreed. I look forward to betting against Barber at some point too, and for the same reasons. But first, she has to face someone capable of taking advantage of her many flaws, while not succumbing to her several strengths.
The problem is that Cifers' best strikes are her kicks, which are still worse and shorter than Barber's. Her boxing is dreadful, and far worse than Barber's. (Which has plenty of flaws of its own) Moreover, Cifers probably won't even be able to REACH Barber.
The only punch Cifers throws with power is a very clumsy right hook. Not a straight right or even an overhand right, but a freaking right hook. Given her tiny arms and the range Barber strikes it, she probably won't even reach her.
She was cracked a few times against Mallory Martin (a significantly better, much taller, and larger fighter than Cifers who actually throws straight rights, incidentally) and was okay, and her defense against Colleen was improved.
You can thank one of the worst judges in combat history, Adelaide Byrd, for that one. Dern easily won rounds 1 and 3. I agree with you that it was easily Yoder's best performance, although it was more a matter of Dern being massively exposed. However, I wonder if people would be as impressed if it was a 29-28 X3 unanimous decision the way it should have been?
All valid, but Yoder has been improving over the course of each fight while Cooper hasn't. Yoder of her pre-UFC fights gets massacred by Cooper. Yoder of the Hill fight probably loses a competitive decision. Yoder of the Dern fight? Eh...it's 50/50 at best for Cooper. If she improves even a little more, suddenly the -140 or -150 line isn't so off-kilter.
I'm also not sure Cooper will win the striking exchanges. Yes, Yoder's striking is hot garbage, but her long arms are annoying for female strikers who don't know how to get in on the inside, which is practically all of them at that level. She was practically even with Dern standing, and Dern is taller, with better striking than Cooper.
There is also the concerning aspect of Cooper having a weak chin. While a solid shot, Dern's overhand right had no business wrecking her so badly.
Agreed. I look forward to betting against Barber at some point too, and for the same reasons. But first, she has to face someone capable of taking advantage of her many flaws, while not succumbing to her several strengths.
The problem is that Cifers' best strikes are her kicks, which are still worse and shorter than Barber's. Her boxing is dreadful, and far worse than Barber's. (Which has plenty of flaws of its own) Moreover, Cifers probably won't even be able to REACH Barber.
The only punch Cifers throws with power is a very clumsy right hook. Not a straight right or even an overhand right, but a freaking right hook. Given her tiny arms and the range Barber strikes it, she probably won't even reach her.
She was cracked a few times against Mallory Martin (a significantly better, much taller, and larger fighter than Cifers who actually throws straight rights, incidentally) and was okay, and her defense against Colleen was improved.
You can thank one of the worst judges in combat history, Adelaide Byrd, for that one. Dern easily won rounds 1 and 3. I agree with you that it was easily Yoder's best performance, although it was more a matter of Dern being massively exposed. However, I wonder if people would be as impressed if it was a 29-28 X3 unanimous decision the way it should have been?
All valid, but Yoder has been improving over the course of each fight while Cooper hasn't. Yoder of her pre-UFC fights gets massacred by Cooper. Yoder of the Hill fight probably loses a competitive decision. Yoder of the Dern fight? Eh...it's 50/50 at best for Cooper. If she improves even a little more, suddenly the -140 or -150 line isn't so off-kilter.
I'm also not sure Cooper will win the striking exchanges. Yes, Yoder's striking is hot garbage, but her long arms are annoying for female strikers who don't know how to get in on the inside, which is practically all of them at that level. She was practically even with Dern standing, and Dern is taller, with better striking than Cooper.
There is also the concerning aspect of Cooper having a weak chin. While a solid shot, Dern's overhand right had no business wrecking her so badly.
was honestly a lil surprised so many ppl on yoder, I watched them both on tuf and while that was a bit ago, I still think abc is the better fighter and will win and could possibly finish, most likely by submission.
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"Moises doesn't have the pressure game of a Hernandez, and Dariush'll diddle him once he gets comfortable"
I highly doubt i had watched some taps on Moises his good. Another thing to consider after that fight with Hernandez his health hasn't being good.
For a fighter that also can gas out at any time. Dariush has only fought once this year in March and lost badly.
Since i am picking fighters on DK, i wont be picking Dariush. If he only had a year of good performances i would probably made a bet on him. But for me his rather questionable.
https://mmajunkie.com/2018/03/medical-suspension-beneil-dariush-own-rules-knockout-loss-ufc
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That article honestly makes me more confident in Dariush. He says he doesn't take fights if he's not confident in his own body, and the Hernandez fight is the only recent one where he didn't put together a 'good' performance. He was beating Barboza till last year's clear comeback KOTY.
Assuming Moises beats Dariush is essentially assuming that Moises is just walking in as a top 25 LW. That's a huuuuuge bow to draw.
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She got worked over pretty bad by Gillian and hasn't been able to defend takedowns by anyone competent. Maycee doesn't seem like she has good wrestling but she'll have like a 10 lbs size advantage. Pretty big factor for these straw weights.
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Using BJJ belts to determine who has a better ground game in 2018? Wat.
I honestly though that was a joking post at first.
I honestly though that was a joking post at first.
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And what voodoo are you using to determene Barber dominates in bjj? Im not saying Hannah is better but to assume Barber dominates is a overstatement. I have seen lot of good things in Hannah and nothing in Barber impresses me.
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Using your own eyes and study how they look on the ground rather than just going by what belt they are I suppose
