UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

MMA fan93 said:
Okay guys, thinking of a parlay of PVZ and Lipski at +142 for 2u, and a parlay of Glover and Cowboy for .5u just for shits and giggles. I feel both veterans are being overlooked here, and more than have the tools necessary to pull out the wins.

Anyone suggest any good 2 leg parlays?
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I just watched the first 2 rounds of Ostovich v Johnson, and she is a lot better than I expected. Just saying.
 
Can I respectfully ask why people parlay UFC fights? I'll toss together a parlay if I can't watch the event live or if events are occuring simultaneously (NFL) but if you're going to take a shot at an underdog early in the card and it hits, are you going to really take the entirety of your winnings (and you're initial bet) and place it on a fight later in the night? I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm sincerely curious. I have some parlays for the ESPN 1 fights but its only because I'll be on vacation and my wife would slaughter me if I spent time watching the UFC on a beach in Mexico.

For those that like underdogs though, there are 4 very live dogs this weekend in the NFL and I wouldn't be surprised if 3/4 win or at the very least cover on the money line.

BOL folks, see ya in a few weeks.
 
Liking the unders on the WMMA.

Calderwoods finished both her UFC Flyweight fights and Lipski has solid submissions which Calderwood is vulnerable too and plenty of finishes. Seems pretty likely someone gets finished and DNGTD at +170 seems decent.

Same with PVZ and Ostovich. Both their fights end ITD far more often than not. Ostovich has been finished in half her fights and PVZ can finish her standing or by sub and likewise Ostovich could take PVZ back at somepoint for a RNC. PVZ ITD could better though as Ostovich sub wins are both armbars and PVZ is tough/flexible as hell and iirc Rose Namajunas couldn't finish an armbar attempt on her despite her best efforts to.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Liking the unders on the WMMA.

Calderwoods finished both her UFC Flyweight fights and Lipski has solid submissions which Calderwood is vulnerable too and plenty of finishes. Seems pretty likely someone gets finished and DNGTD at +170 seems decent.

Same with PVZ and Ostovich. Both their fights end ITD far more often than not. Ostovich has been finished in half her fights and PVZ can finish her standing or by sub and likewise Ostovich could take PVZ back at somepoint for a RNC. PVZ ITD could better though as Ostovich sub wins are both armbars and PVZ is tough/flexible as hell and iirc Rose Namajunas couldn't finish an armbar attempt on her despite her best efforts to.
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paige is really tough and has great submission defence, very little chance ostovich wins by anything but decision, paige finishing ostovich is pretty likely though, she's a good finisher
 
Tyrrax said:
paige is really tough and has great submission defence, very little chance ostovich wins by anything but decision, paige finishing ostovich is pretty likely though, she's a good finisher
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PVZ sub defence isn't great though and it shows in her record she just relies on the fact she's tough as fuck. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Ostovich catches her in a choke and I already have a decent amount on PVZ at -130.
 
Liking Ostovich here at this fight card and lets not forget that her opponent UFC contracts have being cut.
 
TrueAscension said:
Can I respectfully ask why people parlay UFC fights? I'll toss together a parlay if I can't watch the event live or if events are occuring simultaneously (NFL) but if you're going to take a shot at an underdog early in the card and it hits, are you going to really take the entirety of your winnings (and you're initial bet) and place it on a fight later in the night? I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm sincerely curious. I have some parlays for the ESPN 1 fights but its only because I'll be on vacation and my wife would slaughter me if I spent time watching the UFC on a beach in Mexico.

For those that like underdogs though, there are 4 very live dogs this weekend in the NFL and I wouldn't be surprised if 3/4 win or at the very least cover on the money line.

BOL folks, see ya in a few weeks.
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If ur wife is that aggressive perhaps u should pull an Ostovich on her....?
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Liking Ostovich here at this fight card and lets not forget that her opponent UFC contracts have being cut.
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Why would PVZ's Reebok promotional contract not getting re-signed after it ran its course have any bearing on this fight?
 
Jordan3399 said:
PVZ sub defence isn't great though and it shows in her record she just relies on the fact she's tough as fuck. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Ostovich catches her in a choke and I already have a decent amount on PVZ at -130.
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I see two submission losses on her record, both to very good grapplers and it took Rose like 600 submission attempts and 20+ minutes to make one stick, don't really see what you're talking about, her submission defence has looked great to me, her ground game isn't but her sub defence is, whether that's skill or toughness or a combination thereof is irrelevant.
 
Trying to find an angle in the PVZ v. Ostovich fight seems exhausting.
 
Moreira by sub at +435 is a gift line. It's the only way he wins.
 
Tyrrax said:
I see two submission losses on her record, both to very good grapplers and it took Rose like 600 submission attempts and 20+ minutes to make one stick, don't really see what you're talking about, her submission defence has looked great to me, her ground game isn't but her sub defence is, whether that's skill or toughness or a combination thereof is irrelevant.
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Michelle Waterson dominated her on the ground, again she tried to tough it out and ended up just going to sleep. Rose took 4 attempts (not 600), the first a RNC and 2 armbars where PVZ just toughed it out and the first one was very close to finishing the amount of blood from the axe wound on her face certainly helped her. It wasn't impressive defence at all and it's really not like Rose is that amazing on the ground less than a year prior Carla Esparza completely dominated her there.
In her last fight again she showed the same thing when she got caught in a triangle, she was tough as hell but it wasn't any decent defensive BJJ. She was stuck in the triangle JRC just didn't really commit well to finishing it and/or doesn't have great BJJ herself she just wanted to keep PVZ trapped and land elbows off her back after her initial mediocre choke attempt failed.

I'm not even going to go into how easy it is for people to pass PVZ's guard and take her back but it's not hard to see Ostovich as a far bigger grappler than Rose or Waterson being able to at some point take PVZ's back and sink in a choke she can't just tough it out of. If people want to just bet PVZ ITD or something good luck to them but given FDNGTD is available at decent plus odds I'll hedge my bets, being too specific with MMA betting never ends well long term as there's far too many variables and given PVZ is a fighter that has been finished by sub in 2 of her last 4 and caught in subs in all of her losses going up against a fighter who will spend 15 minutes going for subs I don't think see how it's a bad choice.

PVZ really isn't great defensively, great defence is not getting caught so deep in them in the first place, and Ostovich for all her weaknesses is more than capable of getting submissions.
 
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Jordan3399 said:
Michelle Waterson dominated her on the ground, again she tried to tough it out and ended up just going to sleep. Rose took 4 attempts (not 600), the first a RNC and 2 armbars where PVZ just toughed it out and the first one was very close to finishing the amount of blood from the axe wound on her face certainly helped her. It wasn't impressive defence at all and it's really not like Rose is that amazing on the ground less than a year prior Carla Esparza completely dominated her there.
In her last fight again she showed the same thing when she got caught in a triangle, she was tough as hell but it wasn't any decent defensive BJJ. She was stuck in the triangle JRC just didn't really commit well to finishing it and/or doesn't have great BJJ herself she just wanted to keep PVZ trapped and land elbows off her back after her initial mediocre choke attempt failed.

I'm not even going to go into how easy it is for people to pass PVZ's guard and take her back but it's not hard to see Ostovich as a far bigger grappler than Rose or Waterson being able to at some point take PVZ's back and sink in a choke she can't just tough it out of. If people want to just bet PVZ ITD or something good luck to them but given FDNGTD is available at decent plus odds I'll hedge my bets, being too specific with MMA betting never ends well long term as there's far too many variables and given PVZ is a fighter that has been finished by sub in 2 of her last 4 and caught in subs in all of her losses going up against a fighter who will spend 15 minutes going for subs I don't think see how it's a bad choice.

PVZ really isn't great defensively, great defence is not getting caught so deep in them in the first place, and Ostovich for all her weaknesses is more than capable of getting submissions.
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The difference is that Rose Namajunas is a champion with excellent submission skills and Karate Hottie is also a very good fighter who was an atomweight champion previously. Rachael Ostovich is good at subbing much lesser opponents, but a step down from those other two opponents that finished PVZ.
 
JimGunn said:
The difference is that Rose Namajunas is a champion with excellent submission skills and Karate Hottie is also a very good fighter who was an atomweight champion previously. Rachael Ostovich is good at subbing much lesser opponents, but a step down from those other two opponents that finished PVZ.
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No doubt, I just think PVZ leaves herself way too open to submission attempts and even someone like Ostovich has a reasonable enough chance of catching one given it's her go to tactic so I'm happy just playing the under as a whole rather than a put anything on PVZ ITD. Especially given I'm on PVZ's ML so this acts as a partial hedge too.

I would argue in the favour of Ostovich that despite being less skilled than Waterson and Rose, she does have a significant size advantage on them that I think's being ignored a bit. Waterson's a natural 105er and handled PVZ while Ostovich is a solid 125er.
 
TrueAscension said:
Can I respectfully ask why people parlay UFC fights? I'll toss together a parlay if I can't watch the event live or if events are occuring simultaneously (NFL) but if you're going to take a shot at an underdog early in the card and it hits, are you going to really take the entirety of your winnings (and you're initial bet) and place it on a fight later in the night? I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm sincerely curious.
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I bet before the card starts, sometimes days early so I will take two favorites in a parlay simply to increase the pay off. A two fight parlay with -250 favorites that I feel strongly about is very tempting, especially if I don't have any confidence in the underdogs on the card. I have had mixed results with that method though.
 
Jordan3399 said:
No doubt, I just think PVZ leaves herself way too open to submission attempts and even someone like Ostovich has a reasonable enough chance of catching one given it's her go to tactic so I'm happy just playing the under as a whole rather than a put anything on PVZ ITD. Especially given I'm on PVZ's ML so this acts as a partial hedge too.

I would argue in the favour of Ostovich that despite being less skilled than Waterson and Rose, she does have a significant size advantage on them that I think's being ignored a bit. Waterson's a natural 105er and handled PVZ while Ostovich is a solid 125er.
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Rachael didn't look like a solid flyweight in her last fight. Paige should be physically stronger while also being slightly taller with a significant reach advantage. Waterson is MUCH better than Paige at BJJ and striking, doubt either is true of Ostovich.

She might be the better wrestler, can see Paige trying one of her wmma throws and getting outscrambled but I think Paige will be able to bully her.
 
PVZ backers, she is also coming off a broken arm..for all her toughness I wonder if Ostovich catches that arm, will it be more likely she taps now because of it, probably unlikely she gets an arm, I think if any sub attempt by Ostovich it'll be a RNC but I believe she wins on the feet and the ground. I'm taking her ITD and ML. Also watched Lipski for the first time, WAWAWEEWA! I think she's gonna smoke Calderwood, probably gonna take her ITD and probably 1st round.
 
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