UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

[nebulousned]

Are there any other flyweights that are as tall as dillishaw?

Henry gets tagged a lot but i dont see how dillishaw can have much power at 125, especially as a dude with a bigger frame for the weight class

 

[Gugabe]

Are there any other flyweights that are as tall as dillishaw?

Henry gets tagged a lot but i dont see how dillishaw can have much power at 125, especially as a dude with a bigger frame for the weight class

Ulka Sasaki? Like 10 CM taller than Dillashaw.

 

[Austisthunder]

Are the people in here who favor Ostovich just fading PVZ based on weight?

Rewatched her last fight vs De la Rosa and it’s hard for me to imagine putting any faith on her.

I suppose I can see Osto getting a Sub.... and I can just as easily see her doing something stupid and getting choked out.

Paths to victory favors PVZ here

 

[Tyrrax]

Not sure how you've come up with this assessment. Paige was never a strong or physical strawweight. She's landed only 35% of her takedowns and defended only 40%. This includes fights with girls like Chambers (1-4 UFC) and Curran (1-6 UFC). She looked undersized and underpowered against jrC who is herself a mediocre grappler. The move from 115 to 125 is the biggest % jump in UFC aside from 185 to 205, and I think it showed in the JJ/Valentina fight. Add to this the fact that PVZ hasn't even gotten a chance to bulk up and may have lost some strength due to injuries and surgeries and I'd be very surprised to see PVZ bully Ostovich or any other 125 lber for that matter.

Strength and physicality, bullying was pretty much the only thing she's good at and how she won fights. Her wrestling game has always been very shitty low skill, mostly those awful throws she loves so much. Not sure why you're acting like those % are relevant, she had very little skill at anything, just was athletic and strong.

That said that was years ago and Paige has improved her technique everywhere and is (and was) at a much better camp than Ostovich, she has been training very hard, especially her strength and conditioning.

Ostovich very clearly has the superior wrestling and judo so will most likely outscramble and end up on top or on her back if Paige tries for her usual throws, she won't get the finish though, she's weak at everything except wrestling/scrambling and Paige is very good at defending submissions/surviving.
I expect Paige to have much better cardio and strength, i expect her to be the superior striker and hopefully she'll come in with a smart gameplan that doesn't include shitty wmma takedown attempts that give rounds away.

 

[Tyrrax]

I just watched Paige vs Felice, perfect example of how early career low skill Paige wins despite demonstrating much worse technique than her opponent.
Felice was quite clearly more skilled everywhere and simply got dominated by a superior athlete.

Hustle, cardio, pressure, volume, explosive scrambling, nice knees to the face in the clinch.

Holy shit was Paige's corner awful though, 2 guys talking over each other demanding her attention simultaneously.

 

[BigAl-ThePal]

this thread should be renamed Hot pics of PVZ and Rachel Ostovich

 

[Jordan3399]

Are there any other flyweights that are as tall as dillishaw?

Henry gets tagged a lot but i dont see how dillishaw can have much power at 125, especially as a dude with a bigger frame for the weight class

5ft 6in isn't huge for flyweight at all and it's pretty easy to see Dillashaw having well above average finishing ability there given the level of his striking and consistent finishes at 135. It's not like he needs big power or relies on it at 135, he's just a great overall striker that will accumulate large amounts of damage as the fight goes on as he showed during his first title run.

If anything TJ will have considerably more power than DJ who TKO'd Henry in R1 the first fight then racked up significant damage in the rematch despite being a much less dynamic, lower powered striker to TJ with far weaker TDD. Wouldn't be much of a surprise at all if we got a vintage 4th or 5th round headkick and punches TKO after a few rounds of accumulation by TJ.

 

[Sadistics]

Will you please elaborate on those concerns? I really like TJ here and I have him at -200. On it for 3u so far and was considering adding some more.

Cejudo has been showing massive improvements fight to fight, he's one of the best athletes in the UFC. He outstruck Benavidez 2 years ago and is only getting better.

Dillashaw has never been held down by anyone for more than a couple seconds, but Cejudo is quick to solidify position and will be by far the highest caliber of wrestler he's fought. TJ also ends up on his ass a lot when he misses head kicks.

Saying that I'm not too worried about Cejudo grinding out a dec through lay n pray. TJ won't have the big speed advantage he's used to, and the dynamics are different at FLW. TJ won't have his wrestling to fall back on while I think Cejudo can have success with it, and I don't expect the stand up to be a blow out like some. Cejudo has been putting power in his shots lately and I worry about the side effects of the cut.

I'm probably just psyching myself out, and seeing all the lower weight champs win in superfights isn't helping. Watching tape with $2500 already on the line really changes things. In the end I still have 1500 on TJ, and think Cejudos most likely path to victory is KO (outrageous, I know)

 

[Jordan3399]

Not sure if it's been mentioned but isn't TJ good friends with Benavidez still? I'd be surprised if he hadn't at least spoken to the last guy to beat Cejudo given he knows him at a personal level.

Also, is Benavidez at Xtreme Couture now or what? I never saw anything definitive other than he left Elevation.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I will bet for sure
Ariane Lipski
Randy Brown (Chance Rencountre sucks big time)
Gregor Gilespie (LOCK)
Greg Hardy (LOCK)
Te Edwards (he will fight a chiny losing Bermudez, has good wrestling too)

Only dogs with a REAL chance to win
Cejudo
Donald Cerrone
Te Edwards
Sandhagen
Texeira
Ostovich
Dustin Ortiz
Belal might have a shot here too, he has good fight IQ

Rest will lose, donate a dog shelter better.
Really, its winter time and doggies need food so dont waste your money on fighters who wont win

 

[longway]

getting a will dillashaw miss weight prop added to ohmbet, if anyone wants any others hit me up.

An 'I win no matter what' prop, at about a million to one with no limit. Cheers.

 

[Dianabol]

I will bet for sure
Ariane Lipski
Randy Brown (Chance Rencountre sucks big time)
Gregor Gilespie (LOCK)
Greg Hardy (LOCK)
Te Edwards (he will fight a chiny losing Bermudez, has good wrestling too)

Only dogs with a REAL chance to win
Cejudo
Donald Cerrone
Te Edwards
Sandhagen
Texeira
Ostovich
Dustin Ortiz
Belal might have a shot here too, he has good fight IQ

Rest will lose, donate a dog shelter better.
Really, its winter time and doggies need food so dont waste your money on fighters who wont win

Te Edwards is a nobody thats accomplished nothing, all he really has is a punchers chance, Bermudez should win this fight.

Texeira is done, so old and slow, taken a lot of damage. Cutelaba is probably on PEDs, 14 years younger, much more athletic, relentless pace.

Ostovich is a jobber, IDK how people are betting on her. PVZ doesn't lose to fighters like Ostovich, she's gonna win this fight, people are just being haters.

Cerrone is gonna get ran over. Hernandez is the real deal.

 

[nebulousned]

Not sure if it's been mentioned but isn't TJ good friends with Benavidez still? I'd be surprised if he hadn't at least spoken to the last guy to beat Cejudo given he knows him at a personal level.

Also, is Benavidez at Xtreme Couture now or what? I never saw anything definitive other than he left Elevation.

Honestly Benavidez beating Henry was the biggest robbery ive ever seen. The ref was way to quick to take a point and Henry clearly won the first one, and imo won the second quite clearly.

 

[Jordan3399]

Honestly Benavidez beating Henry was the biggest robbery ive ever seen. The ref was way to quick to take a point and Henry clearly won the first one, and imo won the second quite clearly.

True, but he kept it competitive at a minimum and the way he mitigated Cejudo's wrestling was impressive. It was just equally impressive how Cejudo was striking with Benavidez.

 

[chemmy]

Cejudo has been showing massive improvements fight to fight, he's one of the best athletes in the UFC. He outstruck Benavidez 2 years ago and is only getting better.

Dillashaw has never been held down by anyone for more than a couple seconds, but Cejudo is quick to solidify position and will be by far the highest caliber of wrestler he's fought. TJ also ends up on his ass a lot when he misses head kicks.

Saying that I'm not too worried about Cejudo grinding out a dec through lay n pray. TJ won't have the big speed advantage he's used to, and the dynamics are different at FLW. TJ won't have his wrestling to fall back on while I think Cejudo can have success with it, and I don't expect the stand up to be a blow out like some. Cejudo has been putting power in his shots lately and I worry about the side effects of the cut.

I'm probably just psyching myself out, and seeing all the lower weight champs win in superfights isn't helping. Watching tape with $2500 already on the line really changes things. In the end I still have 1500 on TJ, and think Cejudos most likely path to victory is KO (outrageous, I know)

Very well said.

 

[longway]

I've never watched any of Van Zant's fights except the one where she KO'd Rawlins. And I just watched her fights against Waterson and JRC. Her grappling seems literally non-existent. I feel like I am being too jaded here. I'll have to watch again. But there certainly seems to a clear POV for Ostovich, and the FDNGD is still ok at +160.

I was cringing watching her deal with Waterson on her back, she seems totally helpless and does not know just how crap she is. And that head and arm throw she does so badly, ay caramba.

 

[northsofia]

Cejudo`s striking is def a level better than it was a few years back, but he is still far from TJ`s striking. His only path to victory will be to rely heavily on his wrestling, but can he keep TJ down for a long period of time? We saw a lot of scrambling in the DJ fight and TJ will be even harder for keeping down especially in the first rounds, considering that he is bigger than DJ. The clinch was also very competitive.
What do you guys think?

 

[Oblivian]

I decided to pull the trigger on Ostovich. PVZ is almost always looking to clinch, and I don't think she'll have an easy time there. Ostovich's striking looked a lot better than I expected last fight as well. If PVZ wins, I think it will likely be on activity and pace. I don't really think she has a skill advantage anywhere and I don't think she's stronger physically.

 

[Jordan3399]

Cejudo`s striking is def a level better than it was a few years back, but he is still far from TJ`s striking. His only path to victory will be to rely heavily on his wrestling, but can he keep TJ down for a long period of time? We saw a lot of scrambling in the DJ fight and TJ will be even harder for keeping down especially in the first rounds, considering that he is bigger than DJ. The clinch was also very competitive.
What do you guys think?

You pretty much got it imo, I'd add that it's not so much TJ's size advantage more that he does actually just have much better TDD and wrestling than DJ. We've seen DJ outgrappled and taken down by plenty of guys sometimes dominantly like with Cruz, McCall and Pickett. TJ has only ever been takendown properly by Cruz and he popped back up instantly.

 

[ill800]

Can’t believe I forgot to bet cerrone sub
Still +625