UFN 148 on ESPN+ 6 Thompson vs Pettis Official Bets

[hugdeeznuts]

Willis
Wonderboy/Makdessi
Figueiredo
Moffett
Hill
Pena/Barber

 

[Jordan3399]

Feeling like the odd man out on Espinoza lol.

Saw this just as it was starting and thought you were nuts. Nice job haha.

 

[Bastaille]

Gutierrez 1k to win 620$

Makdessi 2k to win 720$

Moffet 280$ to win 162$

Shelton 250$ to win 132$

Formiga 180$ to win 270$

I will probably add more on Gutierrez

Gutierrez 1k to win 620$

Makdessi 2k to win 720$

Moffet 280$ to win 162$

Shelton 250$ to win 132$

Formiga 180$ to win 270$

I will probably add more on Gutierrez

+ 1380$ Great event for me. Im ready for next week.

 

[2bet]

3u Blaydes + Makdessi 1,86
2u Formiga 2,50
2u Aldrich 3,10
2u Gutierrez 1,66
̶2̶̶u̶̶ ̶̶M̶̶a̶̶i̶̶a̶̶ ̶̶ ̶̶2̶̶,̶̶3̶̶7̶
2u Davis 1,74
2u Vera 1,65
2u Shelton 1,73
2u Blaydes 1,43

+3,06u
I really should have just skipped the Davis/Maia fight.
I tailed the forum on Shelton.
I really liked Aldrich.
Every bet could have come through though, nobody was totally blown out of the water.

 

[nebulousned]

$50 on a wonderboy/blaydes parlay for $84.00
$50 on Makdessi to beat Jesus for $66.50
$20 on Steven Peterson to beat Luis Peta for $60.00
$30 on Gutierrez to beat Ryan Macdonald for $45.90

Really banking on Luis to look like crap at 145lbs. Steven Peterson has a lot of heart despite his flaws so im hoping that's enough to wear down the lanky dude.

$50 on a wonderboy/blaydes parlay for $84.00
$50 on Makdessi to beat Jesus for $66.50
$20 on Steven Peterson to beat Luis Peta for $60.00
$30 on Gutierrez to beat Ryan Macdonald for $45.90

down 37.6 but im not even mad with that wonderboy ko, that was sick

 

[Jordan3399]

-4.5u tonight, last fight would of swung it a fair amount but fuck it I'm a fan of Pettis and never did like Wonderboy.

 

[Vir_Ars]

 

[Soccer Steve]

Thompson ML - 1u for 0.27u
Thompson + Cormier - 0.4u for 3.49u
Blaydes ML - 6u for 1.85u*
Blaydes Rd 2 - 0.25u for 1.5u
Blaydes Rd 3 - 0.2u for 2u
Formiga-Fig FDNGTD - 1.2u for 0.92u
Fig KO - 0.5u for 0.88u
Barber ML - 1u for 0.72u*
Barber ITD - 1u for 1.33u
Peterson +3.5 points - 1u for 0.8u
Peterson Rd 3 - 0.25u for 3.5u
Makdessi ML - 11u for 3.56u
Saenz ML - 1u for 1.35u
Gutierrez ML - 4u for 1.9u
Gutierrez KO - 0.5u for 1u
Mitchell ML - 2u for 2.95u
Davis ML - 2u for 1.54u
Maia ML - 0.5u for 0.63u
Blaydes + Thompson - 1u for 0.78u
Makdessi + Thompson - 1.2u for 1.37u

Should've left well enough alone. 2.44u in posted picks above but 0.5u for the night after poor hedging choices, late addons, and live bet missteps. I actually feel quite fortunate to basically break even on the night.

Can only blame myself that any Thompson victory would've put me at +5u and I stupidly hedged with Pettis decision instead of ML. Live and learn.

Have been specifically tracking my prop bets over the past few events and they are losing every time. I gotta weed that out of my structure; bleeding my profit there every time.

See you's next weekend!

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Unusually little money risked today. Will definitely be looking to livebet.

Also, last week I won my ML wagers but got killed on props. So what do I do this week? Bet all props.

2.5u on Blaydes-Willis FGTD at +155
3u on Barber-Aldrich FGTD at -140
1.5u on Markos by decision at +200

Should have pulled the trigger on a few more live bets I was considering, (Barber after round 1, Formiga-Fig GTD after round 1), as the two I made mostly canceled each other out. (Tiny plus)

Anywho, I ended up -0.6u for the night. I don't dislike my 3u miss on Barber-Aldrich FGTD even with the benefit of hindsight. Aldrich lacks finishing power, so I was never worried when she had Barber in trouble in round 1. And Barber having solid boxing in the pocket, especially her hooks and punches in bunches, was a brand-new wrinkle to the game.

On top of that, the fact that Barber would continue to be so aggressive even after being hurt and dominated? Not even she knew that before tonight.

What I am kicking myself about, and what has cost me several times already, is betting 1.5u on Markos by decision. Time and again, I will see value in a certain fighter, but instead of betting the straight ML, I will get too greedy and go for a specific prop.

I bet Whitmire by decision instead of Whitmire ML and lost huge instead of winning big. Last week, I bet Safarov by TKO/KO instead of ML and also lost money instead of making a nice profit. Same thing this week. I bet Markos ML instead of by decision and a -0.6u night turns into a solid +3u.

Lesson learned. Don't get greedy when you see the value at + odds.

 

[Guffman]

Blades -260 2u
Barber -235 2u
Peterson +195 1u
Moffett -155 1u
Davis -145 2u
Gutierrez -185 2u
Blades/Barber/Makdessi 1u to win 1.6u

Up 0.32u for the card.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

-4.5u tonight, last fight would of swung it a fair amount but fuck it I'm a fan of Pettis and never did like Wonderboy.

Funny how your supposed totals are always much, much better than your posted picks. Uncanny, even.

Regardless, I guess "you'll have to wait a really long time before I lose big again, lol!" lasted all of 2 weeks, huh?

 

[Austisthunder]

Hedging kinda with a U on Peterson after Penas weight in debacle lol

Down 3 U on this exclusively because of Wonderbread
Down 6U considering Wonderbread was my anchor on a couple of bomb parlays from March madness
About a 70 U swing....
4 fights in particular have been around 100u swing this year; feels bad man

Looks like most did alright at least, on to Philly lads

 

[nebulousned]

what was your reasoning behind picking pettis?

 

[ApplesVild]

I picked Pettis? Won £100 from £25, £30 Free bet on Blaydes gave my £35 profit

And I had a double of Pettis by finish and Blaydes just to win £2 to win £16

Small profit off my losses, a for few fights let me down.

Big Pretty wasted his time even turning up

 

[Shoulder]

Forth or fifth UFC event in a row that’s a loss for me. Was to high on Hill and Thompson burned me. I could really use a break now...

 

[burge13]

Sweep for me, + just over 6U. Hopefully starts a bit of a run...Wonderboy is finished. It was a clean shot, sure but other than an awkward style, what does he have left to offer? Aging, chin on decline, poor hands. Him v Lawler seems the fight to make? Let Askren fight Mas for #1 contender

 

[Vir_Ars]

what was your reasoning behind picking pettis?

I dont like fighters with karate stance and hand down and old fighters. I like Pettis, no special reasoning, just i like pettis like a liked Masvidal last week.

 

[Jordan3399]

Funny how your supposed totals are always much, much better than your posted picks. Uncanny, even.

Regardless, I guess "you'll have to wait a really long time before I lose big again, lol!" lasted all of 2 weeks, huh?

4.5u that big to you? I went up on the KSW, Bellator, 10u last week and a big fan of Pettis. So I guess it seems I care less than you lmao.

I find it cute you always go over my totals so intensely. As I specified before; livebetting. For example Espinosa in the last minute or so of the fight jumped to around +163 which I jumped on given it was a coin flip fight and went up nicely on.

I'm not the kinda guy that just hits 3 props or dump 25u on one fighter and hope for the best.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Added:

Blaydes -3.5 -155 1.2u
Peterson +3.5 -140 1.4u
Peterson DEC +400 0.25u

Added

Hill -165 1.25u
Formiga +155 0.6u
Pettis/Thompson U4.5 -120 1u
Blaydes DEC +160 0.5u
Makdessi -240 3.25u
Pinedo ITD +600 0.25u
Thompson ITD +100 0.75u
Thompson + Blaydes + Makdessi Round Robin 0.75 per leg
Good luck fellas!

Added a few plays late not posted above and ended up -3.5u. Thompson obv fucked me. Congrats to the Pettis backers.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Should have pulled the trigger on a few more live bets I was considering, (Barber after round 1, Formiga-Fig GTD after round 1), as the two I made mostly canceled each other out. (Tiny plus)

Anywho, I ended up -0.6u for the night. I don't dislike my 3u miss on Barber-Aldrich FGTD even with the benefit of hindsight. Aldrich lacks finishing power, so I was never worried when she had Barber in trouble in round 1. And Barber having solid boxing in the pocket, especially her hooks and punches in bunches, was a brand-new wrinkle to the game.

On top of that, the fact that Barber would continue to be so aggressive even after being hurt and dominated? Not even she knew that before tonight.

What I am kicking myself about, and what has cost me several times already, is betting 1.5u on Markos by decision. Time and again, I will see value in a certain fighter, but instead of betting the straight ML, I will get too greedy and go for a specific prop.

I bet Whitmire by decision instead of Whitmire ML and lost huge instead of winning big. Last week, I bet Safarov by TKO/KO instead of ML and also lost money instead of making a nice profit. Same thing this week. I bet Markos ML instead of by decision and a -0.6u night turns into a solid +3u.

Lesson learned. Don't get greedy when you see the value at + odds.

I remember someone (I think maybe @JimGunn) posted long ago that he always bets dogs straight if he’s betting a prop and that’s something that stuck with me. Having the ability to avoid making the same mistake twice is huge. Good luck next week.