UFN 149 on ESPN+ 7 Overeem vs Oleinik

Roxy, Clark, and Golm for brought in, away from home to lose. Hell Choi too
Edit; damn Clark's out.
 
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modaferri by tko is +1000

WTF?

all 4 of her last wins were via TKO finishes via elbows from mount. wtf are the bookies smoking here?
 
Why should i trust or bet on Mustafaev when he had a three year long lay off?
I remember the fight card from Russia last year with a Russian fighter whose popular in Russia yet hasn't fought five years and lost no more then in the first round.
 
EndlessCritic said:
modaferri by tko is +1000

WTF?

all 4 of her last wins were via TKO finishes via elbows from mount. wtf are the bookies smoking here?
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Got Roxy sub +750 and Roxy KO +1105 at BM just now to hedge my chalky Antonina action.
 
Something has been poking at me all week and waiting to the last hours to air it out...

Newreem is a cautious fighter, as he should be. As dangerous as he is with the gnp, and the interviews stating he'd never been subbed by Alex in training, he still probably won't want to willingly enter Oleinik's world there. Certainly not while Alex is fresh. On the feet Oleinik has a creepy long reach and generic hw power that can end a fight.

Oleinik is a tough old man. The Blaydes stoppage was awkward. The whole sequence began with a referee error and progressed to a stoppage with a possibly a lost-in-translation situation between a visibly bloodied fighter and a doctor. You watch that and the doctor says 'no, it's over' and walks away. It was weird; all eyes were on the moment and people made big decisions under those bright lights. Oleinik was taking a pounding at that point, yes, and was tired but he could've continued. That was late Round 2. It almost certainly would've continued into Round 3.

Now add on to all that the fact that Reem and Alexey are clearly on friendly terms, as seen in the weigh-ins, having trained together, speaking respectfully of one another. Sure, they're pros and it all supposedly stops once you enter the octagon but I need my confirmation biases to help with my breakdown.

Oleinik's fights are predominantly finished quick while Reem's are kind of all over the place.

I won't play a negative number for Starts Round 2 but Over 1.5 at +100 is a cautious no-brainer for me. Fight starts Round 3 at +175 is enticing. +290 for starting R4 is meh. FGTD at +475 is not great. Maybe not too much value here but I think it might be a staring contest until it's sloppy.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Why should i trust or bet on Mustafaev when he had a three year long lay off?
I remember the fight card from Russia last year with a Russian fighter whose popular in Russia yet hasn't fought five years and lost no more then in the first round.
Click to expand...

man I just watched fiziev in his last fight. he looked super hittable by some scrub, Mustafaev lands those same punches and fiziev is going down. I was buying hype from seeing highlights and stuff of fiziev and the layoff story. But Mustafaev looks better. I have bets on fiziev in rd 1,2,3 but just added mustafaev ML to hedge as I think hes just better.
 
So Fiziev is -130, FDGTD is -245, but Fiziev tko is +280? That doesn't make sense, right?

I'd say betting Oleksiejczuk straight and Antigulov rd 1 is a guaranteed profit situation.

Nakamura sub +469, Bojan was able to take Aliev's back, Nakamura has 15 RNC's.

I got Evolev sub +425, +340 now. still value.

Golm ko +675, and Golm ML +238.

Reem tko -155.

Going to bed soon, waking up to fights, it's like Christmas morning.
 
Someone hammered Overeem and Evloev on Pinny. Overeem 1.45->1.37, which takes probably closer to ~50k$ in bets with these limits.

Took more of Choi @4.52.
 
Evloev vs Choi is not available at bet365 anymore. What reasons do they take fights off completely for a while?
 
zeckdo said:
So Fiziev is -130, FDGTD is -245, but Fiziev tko is +280? That doesn't make sense, right?

I'd say betting Oleksiejczuk straight and Antigulov rd 1 is a guaranteed profit situation.

Nakamura sub +469, Bojan was able to take Aliev's back, Nakamura has 15 RNC's.

I got Evolev sub +425, +340 now. still value.

Golm ko +675, and Golm ML +238.

Reem tko -155.

Going to bed soon, waking up to fights, it's like Christmas morning.
Click to expand...

Love it, some great bets here. Thanks Zeck.
 
Nakamura will be taken down, I know he's good on the ground but how is he off his back, anyone know? It will be a low output affair with occasional takedowns by Alev, just depends on Nakamuras danger level of the back
 
Soccer Steve said:
Something has been poking at me all week and waiting to the last hours to air it out...

Newreem is a cautious fighter, as he should be. As dangerous as he is with the gnp, and the interviews stating he'd never been subbed by Alex in training, he still probably won't want to willingly enter Oleinik's world there. Certainly not while Alex is fresh. On the feet Oleinik has a creepy long reach and generic hw power that can end a fight.

Oleinik is a tough old man. The Blaydes stoppage was awkward. The whole sequence began with a referee error and progressed to a stoppage with a possibly a lost-in-translation situation between a visibly bloodied fighter and a doctor. You watch that and the doctor says 'no, it's over' and walks away. It was weird; all eyes were on the moment and people made big decisions under those bright lights. Oleinik was taking a pounding at that point, yes, and was tired but he could've continued. That was late Round 2. It almost certainly would've continued into Round 3.

Now add on to all that the fact that Reem and Alexey are clearly on friendly terms, as seen in the weigh-ins, having trained together, speaking respectfully of one another. Sure, they're pros and it all supposedly stops once you enter the octagon but I need my confirmation biases to help with my breakdown.

Oleinik's fights are predominantly finished quick while Reem's are kind of all over the place.

I won't play a negative number for Starts Round 2 but Over 1.5 at +100 is a cautious no-brainer for me. Fight starts Round 3 at +175 is enticing. +290 for starting R4 is meh. FGTD at +475 is not great. Maybe not too much value here but I think it might be a staring contest until it's sloppy.
Click to expand...
IMO Oleynik brings the fight to Reem in a way that more intelligent strikers won't. Hunt hurt Oleynik bad R1, Browne hurt Oleynik bad R1, Blaydes is curiously powerless for a dude with his physique and a terrible finisher all-round, even Albini hurt Oleynik pretty easily early. Oleynik's gonna get lit up, Reem's a lot more offensively potent/better at finishing/won't be scared of following him to the ground. I'd be surprised if Oleynik makes it to R2 win or lose.
 
Stefan Arambasic said:
Nakamura will be taken down, I know he's good on the ground but how is he off his back, anyone know? It will be a low output affair with occasional takedowns by Alev, just depends on Nakamuras danger level of the back
Click to expand...

Err, have you ever watched Aliev fight? How many take downs did he try when Alves broke his face?
 
usernamee said:
Evloev vs Choi is not available at bet365 anymore. What reasons do they take fights off completely for a while?
Click to expand...

Bovada does this sometimes for seemingly no reason. They usually put it back up in time for the event however....
 
I caught some training footage of Aliev and he looks as sluggish as ever. I suppose I'll make Nakamura my degen pick of the week. Pretty worried about Aliev stalling for home cooking though.
 
I see per wiki that Jotko is a bjj brown belt. Does anyone know what belt his opponent is? He doesn’t have a wiki
 
Cashed out of my Overeem play, can't trust that glass chin fucker
 
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