UFN 155 on ESPN+ 13 De Randamie vs Ladd

Damn all these pullouts lol. What do you guys think about Wellington turman vs Karl?
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Damn all these pullouts lol. What do you guys think about Wellington turman vs Karl?
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I'm pretty heavy on Karl, albeit at a better line than his current one. His striking is levels above and Wellington doesn't have the takedowns to threaten Karl.
 
Finished tape for this, thots that stand out;

Darrin Elkins should murk Hall, but Elkins will give Hall plenty of opportunities to get one of his meme subs

Hall is easy 2 dismiss but its important 2 remember how far unusual tricky meme opponents can go : IE ellias theodoreau

Elkins + hall sub as hedge

Also like Emmitt here, bektic in terms of stand up will give Emmitt his chances 2 crack, and im gonna assume Emmitt can hold his own on the wrestling front.
Dog is korrect bet here
 
And said:
I'm pretty heavy on Karl, albeit at a better line than his current one. His striking is levels above and Wellington doesn't have the takedowns to threaten Karl.
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Where do you cap Karl and what odds did you get out of curiosity? Sounds like there should still be decent value on him
 
Jordan3399 said:
Where do you cap Karl and what odds did you get out of curiosity? Sounds like there should still be decent value on him
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I would cap Karl -220 to -300. Tough to pinpoint exactly, I personally got Karl @-125 and have that for 2u and a parlay with Randamie @+140 for 1.5u. the spots I got in this card I like them a lot.
 
Austisthunder said:
Finished tape for this, thots that stand out;

Darrin Elkins should murk Hall, but Elkins will give Hall plenty of opportunities to get one of his meme subs

Hall is easy 2 dismiss but its important 2 remember how far unusual tricky meme opponents can go : IE ellias theodoreau

Elkins + hall sub as hedge

Also like Emmitt here, bektic in terms of stand up will give Emmitt his chances 2 crack, and im gonna assume Emmitt can hold his own on the wrestling front.
Dog is korrect bet here
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Agreed, I will pass Elkins/ Hall. But about Emmett, I think he’s more dangerous on the feet and like you said will have the necessary openings to land his heavy hands. And about wrestling I think it cancels itself out. So Emmett @+140 is quite good, I have that only for 0.8u, bc I am adding to his ITD line.
 
Re: Elkins vs Hall

As far as I can remember Hall is mostly a leg lock guy and although I'm not a JJ expert myself and barely have an merit i have studied a bunch of it and leg locks seems surprisingly easy to defend. Fight the cross and build a base (Two things I've noticed Elkins can do really well) so I'm not sure a meme sub by Ryan is super likely and I would think it would be Elkins pursuing td's and clinch work where I think hell have an advantage. I dont think guard subs are a reliable form even for memes.
 
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Jordan3399 said:
Where do you cap Karl and what odds did you get out of curiosity? Sounds like there should still be decent value on him
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Around -250. He should run him over but I had to take into consideration that he's not very good from the bottom and has been submitted, albeit from pretty strong grapplers, while Wellington has submitted guys. There's not that much value on him anymore but I got him early at -120 and -125.

EDIT: There's still some value if you have access to Bet365, at least according to how I cap the fight.
 
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WTH happened with the lines for Ladd - GDR? Any inside info?
 
Lol wtf is that line movement? Must be some injury. But then its unlikely the fight will go through....
 
Bet365 still has aspen ladd at 2.00 if you want to make some easy money.
 
And said:
WTH happened with the lines for Ladd - GDR? Any inside info?
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Whether its true or not is anyones guess, but i have read a couple of times that for the most part, wmma line bankrolls are quite thin and therefore it doesn’t take much to heavily shift a line;

Considering we still arent even in fight week and its still within the range on both extremes i wouldn’t attribute anything to it

PS i have 10U on GDR and yes this poast is extreme rationalization rn
 
Austisthunder said:
Whether its true or not is anyones guess, but i have read a couple of times that for the most part, wmma line bankrolls are quite thin and therefore it doesn’t take much to heavily shift a line;

Considering we still arent even in fight week and its still within the range on both extremes i wouldn’t attribute anything to it

PS i have 10U on GDR and yes this poast is extreme rationalization rn
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Yeah, someone probably dropped a big bet on Ladd. I took it as an opportunity to add more on GDR between +155 and +141.
 
And said:
Yeah, someone probably dropped a big bet on Ladd. I took it as an opportunity to add more on GDR between +155 and +141.
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And I got to make free money on Ladd with one of my books that was slow on the shift. Everyone wins.
 
Already taping because I won't have much time in the week.

I like mini DC Van Buren.

- wrestling advantage (great control, doesn't rush guard passes, should be able to a) keep it standing or b) get the takedown on her own)
- cleaner boxing (Livinha just spams right hands and sporadically throws leg kicks to set up a takedown)
- cardio edge (AKA fighters are well known for this and Livinha does fade especially when she grapples. Only time she faced a decent grappler was last time against that giant junkie Frota)

I bet Livinha in her last 2 but had it in my mind to fade her with the right opponent. Van Buren at current odds has a lot of value. However I expect this line to get wider. If some podcast guys pick her as well, a lot of sheep will jump on the Van Buren train lol. Current odds are at about pick em'.
 
Wellington Turman and Roberson operate at a completely different speed level.
 
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