UFN 158 on ESPN+ 16 Cowboy vs Gaethje

[Sono07]

I like Brad Katona here under -200
Azures stand up consists of good kicks, (especially low) for a rd.
In his contender series win , they were good but he often didnt set them up and they went to shit after rd 1
Wrestling looked good but he was manhandling wat was a mannequin by the end of rd 2 &3

Haven't done much tape yet just a few thoughts from memory/stats. Katona is giving up alot of size here and about 6 inches in reach. If you think Azure will have a grapple heavy gameplan I'd be careful since he does have the physical advantage. This one's probably dog or pass for me.

ACJ is who im leaning here, i think this ends with an easy looking rd 1 sub tbh
I didnt see really much evidence of Hall having to deal with TDs/ ground work but he looks extremely uncomfortable from when Jotko / Gaygard got him there

I vaguely remember Shoe Face vs Heinsich from taping 241. Knew Ian looked bad and I still bet the bum. That said ACJ lost a decision to Heinsich who's TDD seems to consist a granby roll..... I think that'd be less embarrassing if he'd been clipped and KOed. Either way I wouldn't bank on a strong ground game from him. While Hall did get stopped it was by "The fountain of youth in little Brazil" known as Costa. That and he looked pretty solid before being overwhelmed by the walking science experiment.

 

[Austisthunder]

Just throwing some Gaycheese thoughts out there..

It's not like his damage meter isn't up there as well. Rocked badly multiple times in WSOF. Hurt badly twice against MJ, ko'd brutally by Eddie, put on deer legs and sat down by DP. Gaycheese hasn't really been known as a quick finish guy. He breaks dudes. Vick has no chin and I don't really have an explanation for Barb. Thought Barb would be the one opening leg kicks since he's faster and more powerful at the instead he dun goofed and let himself get teed on.

Speaking of kicks, idk why everyone is so sure they're gonna be a big factor against Cowboy. None of Gaycheeses opponents have proven to be particularly good at defending leg kicks. DP (Boxer) got hammered and was laying down at the end of the fight cause of Millers kicks, Eddie (Boxer) went to Asia to get sat down by legs kicks, MJ (boxer) didn't defend kicks well, Vick (boxer) had success with body kicks of his own but I wouldn't rate his overall history at defending kicks that well, and I still dont have a good explanation for Barb. That was a master class by Gaycheese. Anyway what am I getting at pointing out Gaethje has mostly fought boxers? Cowboy is largely a MT guy and is actually pretty light on his front foot, lifting to check kicks and to use check knees. Legs kicks shouldn't be that much of a factor.

Explain to me how Cowboy likely wins this plz, i can see it, but struggle to tbh

 

[Sadistics]

Explain to me how Cowboy likely wins this plz, i can see it, but struggle to tbh

Knees, knees, and more knees. Gaethjes vulnerability to up the middle shots is a problem.

 

[Sono07]

Ok. How effective is that? Gaethje is a crowd guy not a cut off guy.

He crowded Edson and cut his lights off pretty quickly. Not positive if that was due to holes in Junior's game or if Gaethje has improved that much. I will say whoever taught Justin punches could be slipped and blocked not just absorbed by his face may have created a legit LW threat. He did show good IQ by picking Junior apart and stunning from range before chasing his KO shot. I have a theory about the Edson fight and other tall distance strikers though. I think they utilize distance so effectively it becomes a big part of their striking defense so a tight high guard may not seem as important or be as second nature. Crowding them works to neutralise the range advantage and stops them from safety resetting to trade without risking an exchange they may not be as prepared for as other strikers. Styles do make matches. I'd include Vick but he is known for keeping his chin high as a giraffe's ass

 

[Sono07]

Explain to me how Cowboy likely wins this plz, i can see it, but struggle to tbh

Cowboy wins by DQ eye poke lmao.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Knees, knees, and more knees. Gaethjes vulnerability to up the middle shots is a problem.

Touch touch to bring up the guard, grab the neck, knee up the middle. Knee as Gaethje comes in. Body kicks like Vick landed. Touch touch high kick. So many tools Cowboy has to knock Gaethje the fuck out because of his porus defense people seem to be forgetting because of the "cowboy is beat by pressure" narrative. Which of course is a very real possibility. I just gotta go with the experience, savvy, and swiss army knife fighter that is Cowboy Cerrone vs the just bleed god

 

[Naught2Sixty]

He crowded Edson and cut his lights off pretty quickly. Not positive if that was due to holes in Junior's game or if Gaethje has improved that much. I will say whoever taught Justin punches could be slipped and blocked not just absorbed by his face my have created a legit LW threat. He did show good IQ by picking Junior apart and stunning from range before chasing his KO shot. I have a theory about the Edson fight and other tall distance strikers though. I think they utilize distance so effectively it becomes a big part of their striking defense so a tight high guard may not seem as important or be as second nature. Crowding them works to neutralise the range advantage and stops them from safety resetting to trade without risking an exchange they may not be as prepared for as other strikers. Styles do make matches. I'd include Vick but he is known for keeping his chin high as a giraffe's ass

I should have said "how effective is that going to be vs Cowboy?"

 

[Sadistics]

I likely won't be pre betting the main, but interested in lbing Cowboy with his big cardio advantage

 

[Austisthunder]

Knees, knees, and more knees. Gaethjes vulnerability to up the middle shots is a problem.

I see this but i think Gaethje looks imo to at least have slightly better defense than his standard cover the last couple fights

Haven't done much tape yet just a few thoughts from memory/stats. Katona is giving up alot of size here and about 6 inches in reach. If you think Azure will have a grapple heavy gameplan I'd be careful since he does have the physical advantage. This one's probably dog or pass for me.


I vaguely remember Shoe Face vs Heinsich from taping 241. Knew Ian looked bad and I still bet the bum. That said ACJ lost a decision Heinsich who's TDD seems to consist a granby roll..... I think that'd be less embarrassing if he'd been clipped and KOed. Either way I wouldn't bank on a strong ground game from him. While Hall did get stopped it was by "The fountain of youth in little Brazil" known as Costa. That and he looked pretty solid before being overwhelmed by the walking science experiment.

Incorrect on both accounts imo
A reach advantage is meaningless if you dont strike, and Katona did fine vs Mitchell/ lopez; a 145er and a large 135er

Also Heinsch probably loses the second rd if his cage grab doesn’t save him imo, plus his wrestling + freak athleticism is stylistically favorible vs ACJ, I dont see Hall having the TDD here to force ACJ to work hard for 8 min tbh

 

[Sono07]

I should have said "how effective is that going to be vs Cowboy?"

Your guess is as good as mine. Personally I think Justin will fight a smarter fight than alot of people seem to think. For now I like 1u on JG, either way he gives up alot of advantages to Cerrone. Like @Sadistics said though LB Cowboy after R1 is probably the way to go.

 

[Stunna77]

Just want to give a shout to whomever was manipulating lines on Dimes last night. Was able to get majority of my desired stake on Smolka -115, Glover +120, and Misha +175 on Bovada because of it. You da real MVP.

 

[Sono07]

Incorrect on both accounts imo
A reach advantage is meaningless if you dont strike, and Katona did fine vs Mitchell/ lopez; a 145er and a large 135er

Also Heinsch probably loses the second rd if his cage grab doesn’t save him imo, plus his wrestling + freak athleticism is stylistically favorible vs ACJ, I dont see Hall having the TDD here to force ACJ to work hard for 8 min tbh

Gotta disagree with ya there. Size isn't a be all end all in grappling true. Being able to post a wider base or lock a wrist/pick an ankle to control position are aided by a size advantage. Same way someone over 6' has an easier time shopping from the top shelf. No black magic just being able to reach were a smaller person can't. This is 135 though and those men scramble like maniacs so you're probably right about Brad not being held down. These are mainly pretape reads for now though. Either way if you think striking is his ptv giving up half a foot in reach is a rough way to start.

Back to ACJ. This is probably just a hard fade on Ian. Still almost beating Heinsich in a grappling match doesn't impress me at all. I'll give ya that Ian has good athleticism, but Halls last opponent looks like he was grown in a lab. I can't agree Heinsich has any sort of wrestling ability though or serious mat time. I only wrestled at a high school level so this is no expert breakdown. Still I think Brunson just exposed Ian's ground game to be pretty poor. No hand fighting the body lock of Brunson despite plenty of opportunities and time to work. More than content to give up his back and just hang out in that same body lock. When he could have circled towards Derick and tried to get an underhook for a 50/50 position again with plenty of time and room to work. What does he do several pointless granby rolls..... You might be right and ACJ could beat Hall. You won't convince me Heinsich has been on a wrestling mat long enough to break in a pair of shoes though so I gotta pass on shoeface.

 

[TrueAscension]

Ok. How effective is that? Gaethje is a crowd guy not a cut off guy. Robbie Lawler absolutely bombed on Cowboy in RD1 and got nowhere except a split, Hernandez is a lot faster and I think more explosive than Gaethje and got nowhere except ko'd.

Pretty fucking effective if you ask me. Hernandez would get absolutely fucking annihilated by Gaethje man. Agree to disagree I suppose.

 

[Jordan3399]

Half of Cowboys counter pressure game is being able to hit TDs (always a reactive double leg) and tying guys up in the clinch and I don't see him being effective with either of those here. Gaethje won't get takendown and he's got good dirty boxing in the clinch, Cowboy can maybe tie him up there to survive like he did with Lawler but thats about it, he won't be winning the fight there.

Cerrone also won't be able to just blitz forward and push Gaethje back easily like he did to Hernandez which leaves him his knees up the middle as his only effective tool to counter pressure. They're effective for sure but struggle to see them being enough on their own to beat Gaethje. Past guys had a lot better boxing, movement and power ripping the body to slow Gaethje's forward momentum to eventually beat him, Cowboy lacks all of that.

 

[matthew55]

anyone have any thoughts on the main event? not too much discussion about it yet

 

[Sono07]

anyone have any thoughts on the main event? not too much discussion about it yet

Saw your post earlier, what do you like about Smolka vs Macdonald?

 

[matthew55]

Saw your post earlier, what do you like about Smolka vs Macdonald?

Smolka way more experienced, probably better everywhere, maybe Macdonald better in striking but I wasn't impressed. He tough that's about it, the line also moved to Smolka -220 or so

 

[Sono07]

Smolka way more experienced, probably better everywhere, maybe Macdonald better in striking but I wasn't impressed. He tough that's about it, the line also moved to Smolka -220 or so

Looks like Ryan has a decent Jab and footwork but not much else. Yeah that line was all over too bad its back around the opener.

 

[TrueAscension]

-190 on Gaethje is a fucking gift. I wish there was a prop bet for him retiring Cerrone.

 

[Sono07]

-190 on Gaethje is a fucking gift. I wish there was a prop bet for him retiring Cerrone.

Yeah I like it but I gotta start small on that one. On paper at least he gives up a some advantages in size and experience to Cowboy, his striking probably gets an edge too at least from a technical view. Then the whole slow starter vs Justins fast starts adds another layer. Personally I like JG here but I can't count out Cerrone, this isn't his first rodeo and win or lose probably won't be his last.