UFN 158 on ESPN+ 16 Cowboy vs Gaethje

[ApplesVild]

When he won Gold in North American ADCC, was ranked No. 7 at LHW and finished Cutelaba, Krylov and Cummins?

Better question is has Crute ever actually been good, Cirk might have losses but he's also beaten decent guys. Crute hasn't beaten anyone decent and not looked great doing even that.

I wouldn't really class those as good wins, they're just some wins.

 

[Jordan3399]

I wouldn't really class those as good wins, they're just some wins.

They're still levels above anything Crute has achieved. I'd take any one of Cirkunovs last six opponents, including those three, and likely bet them over Crute at reasonable odds.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I guess I'll be the only one on Cowboy?



I actually kind of see Cowboy as one of Justin's worst matchups striking wise. Cowboy is widely known to be allergic to pressure but you know what? Robbie Lawler threw the absolute kitchen sink at him in the first and he didn't fall or break. A bigger dude who arguably hits harder. Cowboy shown good endurance in his last couple of fights going 5 rounds multiple times.

Anyway Gaethje is mmas premier pressure fighter but he can be halted with offense like how DP beat him. Touch touch touch touch bringing up Gaethjes guard where he'll typically either try to answer with a hook or leg kick. Cowboy has a good jab and his coaches are smart. Surely they can take pages from Alvarez and DP about keeping Gaethje at bay aaaaaaand most importantly....knees. Intercepting knees, knees in the clinch and just straight up knees up the middle during combos. Gaycheese keeps his guard high making him really susceptible to body shots and knees to the under part of his chin imo.

It has been written! I shall make my summons to the necronomicon tonight and will it so!

 

[Soccer Steve]

Leaning Cowboy because he'll have a speed and sniper advantage over JG, who I rate as basically a big dumb idiot with a chin and can hit hard. But I dunno, I had 1u on Cowboy against Ferguson and that was idiotic.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Justin Gaethje seems to be a new fighter.

He left the "juuuuust bleeeed" approach after 2 KO losses. In his last 2 fights he looked very calm and picked his shots right. A smart fighting Gaethje is a top 3-5 lightweight and Cowboy isn’t. He is the guy to beat the guys below him like Hernandez.

 

[BigNick100]

They're still levels above anything Crute has achieved. I'd take any one of Cirkunovs last six opponents, including those three, and likely bet them over Crute at reasonable odds.

lol and who the heck has Ion beaten really? All 3 of Ion's wins are no longer in the UFC.
Or Cummings? Best win is over Jan I will give him that but the Jan of today is way different that the Jan that fought Cummings then. Or even Krylov, who best win is over a washed up, one foot out the door OSP. Besides that he has no good win on his record.

I do think its a good style match up for Cirk, but those losses he took mentally could have a big impact on how he approaches fighting going forward while Crute is gaining experience and feeling high at the moment. It's hard mentally to take those losses Cirk took and come back the same fighter, this game is mostly mentality. We could see a hesitant Cirk against a improved Crute. Your banking on the same Crute that fought Craig showing up, but not sure that's smart with his age and him gaining experience. We don't know how a up and comer will do when facing a step in competition, you fight who they put in front of you.

Regardless it's not a fight I would want to bet.

 

[Monster Meat]

I took cowboy at +192 just too good to pass up with a style like Gaethje. Yes he’s tough but he gets hit a lot.

 

[Sauna]

I guess I'll be the only one on Cowboy?



I actually kind of see Cowboy as one of Justin's worst matchups striking wise. Cowboy is widely known to be allergic to pressure but you know what? Robbie Lawler threw the absolute kitchen sink at him in the first and he didn't fall or break. A bigger dude who arguably hits harder. Cowboy shown good endurance in his last couple of fights going 5 rounds multiple times.

Anyway Gaethje is mmas premier pressure fighter but he can be halted with offense like how DP beat him. Touch touch touch touch bringing up Gaethjes guard where he'll typically either try to answer with a hook or leg kick. Cowboy has a good jab and his coaches are smart. Surely they can take pages from Alvarez and DP about keeping Gaethje at bay aaaaaaand most importantly....knees. Intercepting knees, knees in the clinch and just straight up knees up the middle during combos. Gaycheese keeps his guard high making him really susceptible to body shots and knees to the under part of his chin imo.

It has been written! I shall make my summons to the necronomicon tonight and will it so!

Fuck ye! 5u on cawboii!

 

[Austisthunder]

Leaning Cowboy because he'll have a speed and sniper advantage over JG, who I rate as basically a big dumb idiot with a chin and can hit hard. But I dunno, I had 1u on Cowboy against Ferguson and that was idiotic.

I can see the line of thinking Cowboy but it needs to be stated that his last 3 Ws which brought him back to “elite” status were :

Mike perry - could argue cowboy was on the wrong side of that till Platinum took it to the ground, the ground will not be in play here

Alexander Hernandez- i hope we have all hopped off that hype train

Ragin Al- while cowboy looked good here, Al couldn’t have played more to cowboys strengths if he tried

Would cowboy withstanding the storm for 10 minutes to technically take over late for a finish/ decision surprise me ? Not really but STYLES. MAKE. FIGHTS.
I need 2 tape Gaethje 2 confirm but im thinking this is 5U territory here

 

[ApplesVild]

Anyone betting Cowboy is throwing money away, he's getting finished within 2 rounds

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Looks like another fight where I have to bet on Glover to beat a overrated "prospect“ who will hurt him early and get finished from Glover on top lol

 

[mkess101]

Leaning Cowboy because he'll have a speed and sniper advantage over JG, who I rate as basically a big dumb idiot with a chin and can hit hard. But I dunno, I had 1u on Cowboy against Ferguson and that was idiotic.

Alright I managed to watch a bit of tape on this, and here's my thoughts (after a diatribe about Tony):

First, yes, don't bet against Tony Ferguson at LW. Ever. (Okay "ever" is extreme, but at least not until he shows signs of slowing down). Not even if he fights Khabib. (Esp given Khabib will be around -200 or so if he beats Dustin convincingly). Ferguson really is a next level fighter, and that's my completely objective evaluation with zero bias whatsoever LOL. But seriously, the things he brings into fights you cannot replicate. He does serious damage to EVERYONE he fights. And because he doesn't get tired, that damage increases as time goes by. He is a special fighter, and people have failed to realize just how uniquely talented the guy is for a long time. Betting against this guy is a good way to lose $, and has been for every fight for the last SEVEN YEARS. That's my general betting disclaimer for today.

Now, Cowboy vs Gaethje. Gaethje is better than the "big dumb idiot with a chin who hits hard". But...yeah he's shown serious lapses in fight IQ at times because he absolutely doesn't care how much damage he takes as long as he can inflict some. But he does have a very good chin and will land hard strikes in every fight he's in because of his style. Which may not bode well for Cowboy. Because while Cowboy's durability is still okay, it's not what it was. And the beating he took from Tony pretty recently isn't going to help on that front. The other issue for Cowboy is that he loves, LOVES to try to set up his high kick with straight punches. Which is fine, but it means he has to be really heavy on his lead leg in order to generate any force with his rear leg. And if you watch tape, he is ALWAYS heavy on his lead leg. Gaethje is going to likely blast the hell out of that lead leg from the opening bell. And Cowboy will land straight punches in return. Watch Gaethje vs Dustin to see what this fight will likely resemble early on. Gaethje had Dustin limping from chewing up his legs with low kicks, but Dustin was busting up JG's face in exchange. The thing is, can you really be confident that Cowboy can inflict the kind of damage Dustin did in exchange for having his legs pulverized? I'm not.

So...betting the fight. I didn't check the odds before capping it myself (I like to first cap myself then check to see how they compare). I capped Gaethje around -200. And lo and behold, that's where he sits. So...hard pass imo at current odds. I think odds are spot on. Cowboy can win, but Justin a solid favorite and with good reason.

 

[theTKDguy]

Big time circle jerk coming on Gaethje

Rightfully so. Unlike al who only packs a punch, justin is one of the best pressure fighters in mma. Cerrone won't like justin getting in his face and leg kicks will be devastating too. Cerrone has a shot but gaethje should definitely take it, it's simply a bad matchup.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Alright I managed to watch a bit of tape on this, and here's my thoughts (after a diatribe about Tony):

First, yes, don't bet against Tony Ferguson at LW. Ever. (Okay "ever" is extreme, but at least not until he shows signs of slowing down). Not even if he fights Khabib. (Esp given Khabib will be around -200 or so if he beats Dustin convincingly). Ferguson really is a next level fighter, and that's my completely objective evaluation with zero bias whatsoever LOL. But seriously, the things he brings into fights you cannot replicate. He does serious damage to EVERYONE he fights. And because he doesn't get tired, that damage increases as time goes by. He is a special fighter, and people have failed to realize just how uniquely talented the guy is for a long time. Betting against this guy is a good way to lose $, and has been for every fight for the last SEVEN YEARS. That's my general betting disclaimer for today.

Now, Cowboy vs Gaethje. Gaethje is better than the "big dumb idiot with a chin who hits hard". But...yeah he's shown serious lapses in fight IQ at times because he absolutely doesn't care how much damage he takes as long as he can inflict some. But he does have a very good chin and will land hard strikes in every fight he's in because of his style. Which may not bode well for Cowboy. Because while Cowboy's durability is still okay, it's not what it was. And the beating he took from Tony pretty recently isn't going to help on that front. The other issue for Cowboy is that he loves, LOVES to try to set up his high kick with straight punches. Which is fine, but it means he has to be really heavy on his lead leg in order to generate any force with his rear leg. And if you watch tape, he is ALWAYS heavy on his lead leg. Gaethje is going to likely blast the hell out of that lead leg from the opening bell. And Cowboy will land straight punches in return. Watch Gaethje vs Dustin to see what this fight will likely resemble early on. Gaethje had Dustin limping from chewing up his legs with low kicks, but Dustin was busting up JG's face in exchange. The thing is, can you really be confident that Cowboy can inflict the kind of damage Dustin did in exchange for having his legs pulverized? I'm not.

So...betting the fight. I didn't check the odds before capping it myself (I like to first cap myself then check to see how they compare). I capped Gaethje around -200. And lo and behold, that's where he sits. So...hard pass imo at current odds. I think odds are spot on. Cowboy can win, but Justin a solid favorite and with good reason.

Much appreciated. The books love that you've left it behind.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

Katona-Dec
Vetterori-Dec
Khandzoko-Dec
Hubbard-Dec
Smith-Dec
Smolka-Sub2
Crute-Ko2
Duffe-Ko1
Carlos Jr-Sub1
Sakai-Ko1
Branch-KO2
Texeira-Sub2
Cerrone-Ko2

 

[XociDe]

I'll be shocked if Cerrone makes it to the 3rd round.

 

[Monster Meat]

Rightfully so. Unlike al who only packs a punch, justin is one of the best pressure fighters in mma. Cerrone won't like justin getting in his face and leg kicks will be devastating too. Cerrone has a shot but gaethje should definitely take it, it's simply a bad matchup.

I get the pressure idea but I think Cerrone has a better shot than most are giving him especially with Gaethje being a 2-1 fav that’s kind of crazy.

 

[TrueAscension]

Gaethje inside the first 2 minutes

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Good morning everyone! So I busted out the necronomicon last night to make my prayers for Cerrone to hand Gaycheese his 3rd ko loss and I accidentally summoned the army of darkness instead so...there's that. Still got time tho I'll make it right.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Good morning everyone! So I busted out the necronomicon last night to make my prayers for Cerrone to hand Gaycheese his 3rd ko loss and I accidentally summoned the army of darkness instead so...there's that. Still got time tho I'll make it right.

Klaata! Verata! ....Nnnnniaattu...