UFN 159 on ESPN+ 17 Rodriguez vs Stephens

Jordan3399 said:
The guy was KOd by a regional can. Stephens can certainly KO him especially when he's doing that leaning back, hands down tall man defence. Wouldn't take much out of the fact he's not been dropped in his UFC career when you factor in who he's fought. Only guy to have likely had a chance was KZ.

Zero doubt Zabit has better striking too, his movement on the backfoot, boxing and mix of striking is much better although he fades and it declines. Brandon Davis would cause Yair a lot of problems as well with his rangy technical striking, when he's not brawling like an idiot he's got very effective and solid technical Muay Thai.
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That was 20 years ago in his 3rd MMA fight ever and looked very flukey. It was a tiny cage and his opponent basically dove across the cage with a flying punch while Yair was standing up and he got flattened.

Maybe it says something bad about Yair but I don’t see is strongly translating to KO risk for his current form
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Yoooo you should be at the beach getting drunk and yelling racial slurs at randoms.
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Calling people white nationalists is what I’m going to do. And talk about their white privilege and make them feel bad about themselves in general

Look at these crackers, they think they own everything


 
ill800 said:
Got a crazy head cold the day before.
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Ugh. My fiancee got sick last weekend and I contracted the illness Monday this week. I got over the worst of it by Thursday, but I'm still light-headed and have far less energy and concentration, which has made watching tape and making gambling decisions more challenging.
 
MrShady said:
Who are you on tonight? I respect your picks a lot
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You shouldn't. I'm a bit cold atm.

I got:
1u Yair -105
1u Grasso -125 (no confidence at all a true gamble)
2u Bravo -115
.3u Nelson Round 1 +325
1u Carnelossi +125

And then some shitty RR and 7 leg parlays that never cash for me. One day tho.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Ugh. My fiancee got sick last weekend and I contracted the illness Monday this week. I got over the worst of it by Thursday, but I'm still light-headed and have far less energy and concentration, which has made watching tape and making gambling decisions more challenging.
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Be careful with livebets today!
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
That was 20 years ago in his 3rd MMA fight ever and looked very flukey. It was a tiny cage and his opponent basically dove across the cage with a flying punch while Yair was standing up and he got flattened.

Maybe it says something bad about Yair but I don’t see is strongly translating to KO risk for his current form
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It just shows his chins breakable and with the clear holes in his defence as well it looks like a recipe for him to get KO'd sooner or later
 
Barry's "One Play a Day" 12th Pick for UFC ON ESPN+ 17: RODRIGUEZ VS. STEPHENS
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Record 6W-4L-1D Profit: $10.75

- Barry
 
I ended up hitting Grasso decision +125.

This has back and forth fight where Carla gets a few takedowns and Grasso wins the striking written all over it. I like Grasso bc judges have been valuing damage more and control less, and being the co-main event in Mexico that should especially be the case.

Still not sure how much Grasso's last fight was her breaking out vs Karolina being washed. I think it's an even-ish blend of both.

And Carla's last fight vs Virna was pretty good, but her wrestling offense just hasn't been that great since beating young Rose so I'm not sure how much credit to give it. Virna didn't provide a whole lot of resistance to takedowns...thinking she may not have the best takedown defense bc she is so comfortable with depending on her BJJ off her back.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
I ended up hitting Grasso decision +125.

This has back and forth fight where Carla gets a few takedowns and Grasso wins the striking written all over it. I like Grasso bc judges have been valuing damage more and control less, and being the co-main event in Mexico that should especially be the case.

Still not sure how much Grasso's last fight was her breaking out vs Karolina being washed. I think it's an even-ish blend of both.

And Carla's last fight vs Virna was pretty good, but her wrestling offense just hasn't been that great since beating young Rose so I'm not sure how much credit to give it. Virna didn't provide a whole lot of resistance to takedowns...thinking she may not have the best takedown defense bc she is so comfortable with depending on her BJJ off her back.
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Both girls have clear paths to victories so I avoided. Imo I think it's a good live betting fight, if grasso can stuff the takedowns I'd bet her and if she's being controlled on the ground for periods of times can go the other way. GL with your bet though!
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Seems I am the only one here on Yair, so i will address all of the points people are making

1) Yair is getting WAY too much hate for the KZ performance. I was on KZ that fight, he was obviously going to win a decision but it wasn’t a bad performance by any stretch for Yair.

First he survived for 5 rounds vs frankly a much better finisher than Stephens. The only other UFC opponent KZ hasnt finished is prime Aldo, and he has more round 1 KOs in 7 fights (3) than Stephens does in 30 fights (2) including two common Stephens opponents in Moicano and Bermudez.

If KZ couldnt come close to KO’ing Yair in 5 rounds (at elevation on 2 weeks notice), it’s not likely Stephens will. Not to mention that KZ ground game is also much better.

Second, Yair had his moments. It probably should have been 4-1 or maaaybe 3-2 KZ. Judges had it 3-1, 3-1, 2-2 entering the 5th so it may have been a split decision as is. Judges are prone to being biased toward flashy prospects, and it’s only going to be mroe significant with a Mexican crowd going bananas for every flashy Yair strike.

2) This idea that Zabit is better than Yair at everything is ridiculous. Brandon Davis had a better round 1 of standup vs Zabit than Stephens did. Zabit is a much better wrestler and probably better overall, but people are deluding themselves if they think Zabit’s striking is better.

3) Stephens has been training with Tony? Who cares. Fighters train with studs all the time and fail to notably improve. Stephens is 33 and at this age more likely to decline than improve.

Meanwhile Yair also had access to good coaches and training partners and is an athletic 26 y/o with MUCH more potential to improve.

4) I don’t see any strong reason to favor Stephens. He could possibly KO but its not super likely. He could win a close decision, but it is in Mexico and Stephens isn’t one to run away with decisions vs quality opponents.

And Yair’s hands may be bad, but he can still KO Stephens with kicks, knees, elbows. Stephens is slightly weak to the body, maybe Yair hurts him with a switch kick.

I expect the fight to be reasonably close but Yair to be just a bit better with judge bias on his side. My most likely outcome is Yair 49-46, 49-46, 48-47 decision or something like that
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Nope Im on yair hes EASY MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Rodriguez, Craig, Correia now the favorites.
 
mposhtkouhi said:
What about my picks?
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Your picks aren't bad I just find us often disagreeing. But the whole EASY PICKS thing is funny and amusing and trollish like Barry so it seems like you're not serious about your money
 
MrShady said:
Your picks aren't bad I just find us often disagreeing. But the whole EASY PICKS thing is funny and amusing and trollish like Barry so it seems like you're not serious about your money
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I never thought I would appreciate a subtle troll like Barry until this joker came crashing into the forum like the Kool Aid Man with this annoying as fuck Easy Money + exclamation point bullshit.
 
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