UFN 160 on ESPN+ 18 Hermansson vs Cannonier

[HeadsUpPoker]

Not a lot of talk on the co main event.

Mark O. Madsen vs Belluardo.
I have actually had the pleasure of sparring with Mads. He is obviously a very strong and good wrestler and according to himself drawed Khabib in wrestling(not sure if greco roman or not) when he visited him in Vegas.

His weakness is for sure his striking,. It consists of overhand rights and he is very basic in this department.

I am a bit worried about his cardio as he seems to sometimes have a very low output.

I dont see why he should be this favored in his ufc debut. Belluardo has a very terrible chin, but his grappling is okay and perhaps if he can survive, he might be able to steal R2 and R3.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Naurdiev gassed bad against Rountree, I know grappling fucked him up. Buharzada wont take him down, it will be a stand up battle where Naurdiev has more weapons.

 

[longway]

Why do Oleksiejczuk bettors think there is value to his -230 to -250 line? I like him plenty, and think he will win, but even though his grappling and TDD is decent, OSP has clear PTV. OSP is on a skid, but he is still a dangerous prospect and has the wrestling advantage imo. That line puts him at a 70% chance of a win and I think that is a little juiced, it should be closer to 65%

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Why do Oleksiejczuk bettors think there is value to his -230 to -250 line? I like him plenty, and think he will win, but even though his grappling and TDD is decent, OSP has clear PTV. OSP is on a skid, but he is still a dangerous prospect and has the wrestling advantage imo. That line puts him at a 70% chance of a win and I think that is a little juiced, it should be closer to 65%

I'm very high on Michal but I have some trepidation about betting him simply because even a past prime OSP is a big step up from the likes of Rountree, Antigulov and Villante. OSP has the ability to put him on his back and I have no idea how he'll do there.

 

[Sono07]

I'm specifically watching tape to remind myself about Ion's style. He's strong and explosive but mostly likes to stand on the feet and throw bombs with his fists or elbows and some knees. He looked really fast at first and threw huge power before he dropped Glover Teixeira with a huge spinning back fist and followed him to the ground in round 1 of their fight, but slowed, got dropped and got submitted in round 2. Against Gadzhimurad Antigulov he's the one that got taken down multiple times until his opponent slowed then got a standing TKO. Against Henrique da Silva he got a very fast KO so those don't tell us much about his takedown capability.

He did manage to judo throw Jared Cannonier down from the position where Jared was cage pushing near the cage a couple of times in round 1 and then dive on Jared's legs with all his might using brute strength to take him down in round 2 a couple of times. But he's really forcing it with a big explosion and brute strength more than technique. Then he started to slow down a little from it and got taken down himself near the end of round 2. He managed it again in round 3 very briefly but Cannonier got right up and then outstruck Ion to win a clear round 3 to take a decision. Against Jonathon Wilson before that he didn't complete a takedown in that three round decision that he won.

So for me, I think it's not so much his style to go for so many takedowns except in that Jred Cannonier fight. Even if he tries Ion might have success diving on Khalil's legs like this, but Khalil could make him pay for it or get up again.

Yeah I like Rountree. I think Ion packs a little too much muscle and slows himself down for it.

 

[Sono07]

Naurdiev gassed bad against Rountree, I know grappling fucked him up. Buharzada wont take him down, it will be a stand up battle where Naurdiev has more weapons.

You mean he got Recountered right? Lmao

 

[johno]

I'm specifically watching tape to remind myself about Ion's style. He's strong and explosive but mostly likes to stand on the feet and throw bombs with his fists or elbows and some knees. He looked really fast at first and threw huge power before he dropped Glover Teixeira with a huge spinning back fist and followed him to the ground in round 1 of their fight, but slowed, got dropped and got submitted in round 2. Against Gadzhimurad Antigulov he's the one that got taken down multiple times until his opponent slowed then got a standing TKO. Against Henrique da Silva he got a very fast KO so those don't tell us much about his takedown capability.

He did manage to judo throw Jared Cannonier down from the position where Jared was cage pushing near the cage a couple of times in round 1 and then dive on Jared's legs with all his might using brute strength to take him down in round 2 a couple of times. But he's really forcing it with a big explosion and brute strength more than technique. Then he started to slow down a little from it and got taken down himself near the end of round 2. He managed it again in round 3 very briefly but Cannonier got right up and then outstruck Ion to win a clear round 3 to take a decision. Against Jonathon Wilson before that he didn't complete a takedown in that three round decision that he won.

So for me, I think it's not so much his style to go for so many takedowns except in that Jred Cannonier fight. Even if he tries Ion might have success diving on Khalil's legs like this, but Khalil could make him pay for it or get up again.

Thanks for the break down man. Good to hear I'm not completely wrong haha

 

[Sono07]

Thanks for the break down man. Good to hear I'm not completely wrong haha

I'm with ya, I don't think Cutelaba has the cardio to maintain wrestling or any other kinda pressure for long.

 

[Jordan3399]

I'm specifically watching tape to remind myself about Ion's style. He's strong and explosive but mostly likes to stand on the feet and throw bombs with his fists or elbows and some knees. He looked really fast at first and threw huge power before he dropped Glover Teixeira with a huge spinning back fist and followed him to the ground in round 1 of their fight, but slowed, got dropped and got submitted in round 2. Against Gadzhimurad Antigulov he's the one that got taken down multiple times until his opponent slowed then got a standing TKO. Against Henrique da Silva he got a very fast KO so those don't tell us much about his takedown capability.

He did manage to judo throw Jared Cannonier down from the position where Jared was cage pushing near the cage a couple of times in round 1 and then dive on Jared's legs with all his might using brute strength to take him down in round 2 a couple of times. But he's really forcing it with a big explosion and brute strength more than technique. Then he started to slow down a little from it and got taken down himself near the end of round 2. He managed it again in round 3 very briefly but Cannonier got right up and then outstruck Ion to win a clear round 3 to take a decision. Against Jonathon Wilson before that he didn't complete a takedown in that three round decision that he won.

So for me, I think it's not so much his style to go for so many takedowns except in that Jred Cannonier fight. Even if he tries Ion might have success diving on Khalil's legs like this, but Khalil could make him pay for it or get up again.

It wasn't just diving for the legs both doubles Ion hit were timed off of Cannoniers low kicks just like Khalil was spamming last fight, the technique wasn't pretty but the timing was perfect and Khalil offers the same opening for him to exploit. Neither guy was dropped either, Glover was hurt but just flopped to his back after having a TD stuffed and Cutelaba slipped on a kick and was still winning up until then.

He hasn't attempted many TDs outside of the Cannonier fight, but equally none of his other fights warranted the use of them so there's no certainty either way. The fact that when faced with another big powerful striker like Cannonier with a ground game worse than his (same style match up as Khalil) he actually tried to take him indicates he's more likely than not to do so again here. If Cannonier hadn't continually pressured as well that fight, been active with his get ups and scrambling and himself have shown great cardio he'd still likely have lost the 2nd round and the decision. Thats a lot of factors that Khalil needs to replicate that we've not seen him to do before well.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Cutelaba could do better as a MW if he cut a little muscle. Would be mega strong there and have better cardio.

 

[Sono07]

Cutelaba could do better as a MW if he cut a little muscle. Would be mega strong there and have better cardio.

Agreed, watch him come in lean as hell and dominate just to shut us up though lmao

 

[piglord]

hit a nice underdog on cristian perez last weekend, will be sending out any combate americas plays i make via email as usual (link in sig).

 

[Oblivian]

What do people think about Lando/Diakese? Both fighters have had some pretty poor performances mixed with showing some real talent. I think this fight is close, but actually slightly favor Lando. I think a decision is extremely close, but Lando having wrestling in his back pocket and being more durable leans me his way.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Should Jack Shore be a favorite against Hernandez? I dont think so, putting money in the dog.

 

[Sono07]

Should Jack Shore be a favorite against Hernandez? I dont think so, putting money in the dog.

Still digging into this one but I agree. Hernandez looks solid, haven't seen much on Shore yet though

 

[Jordan3399]

What do people think about Lando/Diakese? Both fighters have had some pretty poor performances mixed with showing some real talent. I think this fight is close, but actually slightly favor Lando. I think a decision is extremely close, but Lando having wrestling in his back pocket and being more durable leans me his way.

Like Lando, Diak looked good vs Duffy who offered next to nothing and just let his leg get chewed up. Vannata won't let Diak get comfortable and pressures effectively which Diak still hasn't really got much of an answer too except winging power shots. Only concern is him slowing down but with Diak not pressuring and Lando being more cardio concious I like his chances overall. Line should be flipped imo.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Still digging into this one but I agree. Hernandez looks solid, haven't seen much on Shore yet though

I'm not impressed, looks solid but nothing special, Hernandez put a fight against Vera and I like Vera a lot, Shore have not fight great competition and a think that just fighting someone as Vera is a huge experience advantage.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I'm not impressed, looks solid but nothing special, Hernandez put a fight against Vera and I like Vera a lot, Shore have not fight great competition and a think that just fighting someone as Vera is a huge experience advantage.

Vera is a slow starter in a lot of his fights, so bear that in mind when analysing how someone performs against him.

 

[Masterbettor]

Haven't seen anyone talk about Lando being a +125 underdog. Think this is a toss up fight, two very similar fighters. Thoughts?

 

[Sono07]

I'm not impressed, looks solid but nothing special, Hernandez put a fight against Vera and I like Vera a lot, Shore have not fight great competition and a think that just fighting someone as Vera is a huge experience advantage.

From what little I have seen Shores striking didn't impress. On the feet Hernandez should have an edge, his defensive grappling wasn't bad either. I think the undefeated record may have given Shore some unearned respect.