UFN 162 on ESPN+ 20 Maia vs Askren

TrueAscension said:
A fluke would be something that is unlikely to happen whether he studied it or not. The fact that it connected so perfectly lends credence to the idea that was flukey. The fact Askren has never been knocked down or out also lends credence to the idea that it was flukey. Basically, if he studied for the knee and even admitted he didn't know if it would connect or not but wanted to give Askren something to think about the whole fight, it can easily be considered a "fluke."
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Unlikely. Askren is a one trick pony with years of fighting mediocre talent using the same wrestling style. The fact that his only game plan vs strikers is to dip low for a takedown makes it highly predictable what he's gonna do.. Especially when a competent striker rushes him.

First round KO of Aldo by Conor would be considered flukey if we all thought this way. Except Conor threw it with intention.. not blind ambition.

A CALCULATED attack is less flukey then closing your eyes and swinging. Pre fight footage shows Jorge practicing it so we know he wasn't like, uh I'm gonna blindly
throw this knee with no reason.

But i definitely understand where you're coming from.
 
Omni1 said:
I believe Gane will win. However, it is usually not a good idea to max bet any heavyweight fight. Gane is currently -250 5Dimes. The play was Gane via sub +1350.
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Not sure what his KO line is but I thought his ML price would be -300 at least (seems that's what the opener was around) can't help but think he looks like a -300/-400 favorite here.
 
Dana says 5:30am start time

 
Anyone else here like Gane ML/Ko?
He should have a decent cardio advantage and much better striking.
Good amount of kickboxing experience for Cyril as well I believe.
Unless I'm missing something here
Don Tale will get KOed in the first half of the fight.
 
Sono07 said:
Anyone else here like Gane ML/Ko?
He should have a decent cardio advantage and much better striking.
Good amount of kickboxing experience for Cyril as well I believe.
Unless I'm missing something here
Don Tale will get KOed in the first half of the fight.
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I'm telling you. The play is Gane Sub.
 
Omni1 said:
I'm telling you. The play is Gane Sub.
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Tempting I really like Gane by KO/tko due to GNP as well. Either way it is hard to see this one going the distance and I really think we see a stoppage before r3.
Don't think Mayes has the cardio for 3rs at least he didn't show it in his recent bout.
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
I don't think flukey is the word to describe Mas's knee blasting a hole in Askren's face.

But there seems to be next to zero we can learn from that KO that is relevant for the Maia fight. From that perspective there is clearly slightly more to take away from the Lawler fight, even if that also is quite uninformative.
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It's wasn't a "fluke," but it definitely was a low probability event, which also makes it low relevance. The fact that there've only been 2 flying knees like that we can remember in the past 20 years of MMA means it's not something that should have much significance in capping.
 
Xuh said:
my feeling is Randa should win the fight unless she does something dumb (which is always a pretty high chance TBF...)

I wasn't going to bet the fight but:
(i) I was reminded about Yoder vs Cooper, I thought Cooper deserved that win and using that fight as a measuring stick, Randa should be be able to do it better. Maybe Cooper has better standup but I think Randa could keep it close with just aggression if not even come out ahead on the feet. Randa was at least somewhat competitive vs Rodriguez in the striking recently, for example. & obviously she has the ability to get TD's and top control time to win rounds.
(ii) Randa's price is now 1.70-1.80 which very appealing IMO

I'm not overly worried about cardio/short notice as neither are cardio machines.
Yoder hasn't beaten anyone on Randa's level yet, Randa usually beats ppl of Yoder's level comfortably enough and loses to top 10 fighters (or, she wins one then loses one... even by that mark she's guaranteed a win ;) )

I've bet 1u on Randa, I wanted to be sub-1u all the way on this card but looks like I'm gonna end up 1.5u Randa, Askren, and 2u Loma
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I said I'd never bet against you on WMMA again, between this and multiple people calling me out on a Yoder bet I'm completely freerolling.
 
Sadistics said:
I said I'd never bet against you on WMMA again, between this and multiple people calling me out on a Yoder bet I'm completely freerolling.
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Well Markos ml is at -110 now so you should be good
 
Seriously doubt I’m waking up in four hours for the early prelims

Edit: I set my alarm
Smh what a degenerate
 
Loma win, hedged with albu ITD
Also got salikhov -150, markos -135
GL bois
 
any updates on dariush camp and cardio? Hard not to pull the trigger on camacho +160
 
thoughts on johnson via dec +141? is rays chin shot or will he be able to hang in there enough to make this correct?
 
hawk77 said:
thoughts on johnson via dec +141? is rays chin shot or will he be able to hang in there enough to make this correct?
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michael johnson's mental is probably at an all time low. I wouldn't even bet on him.
 
Damn this start time sucks for event. Think I'll take a few hours nap and wake up for it lol..
 
ill800 said:
Seriously doubt I’m waking up in four hours for the early prelims

Edit: I set my alarm
Smh what a degenerate
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I'd rather stay up til 12PM than wake up at 6AM. All nighters are supernecessary for these AM cards
 
Xuh said:
Gut feeling is Lookboonmee wins easily vs Albu and makes everyone say 'why didn't I max such an obvious bet' (including me since I'm only 1u... feeling the urge to go up to 2 #highrolla)
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Loma is fucking serious
 
Sadistics said:
Loma is fucking serious
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I haven't watched it yet but it sounds like she won comfrotably enough despite it being a 'split'

I'm glad Markos won you $27 (think of her when you eat your free lunch with it), I thought Yoder might get that dec but if there was any fight someone would say 'I wish I freerolled that' waiting for the decision it would be one like that lol
 
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