Brad -
http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-fight-night-94-main-card-odds/
I’m glad Dustin Poirier went through a battle at lightweight against Joe Duffy to see that he’s able to take shots he couldn’t before, and to show that his cardio is just as solid — if not better — than it was at featherweight. Those are two very important reasons that I’m picking him against Michael Johnson here. Johnson is a higher volume striker, but Poirier is the more accurate of the two, and certainly no slouch in terms of the pace he keeps. The biggest difference in this fight will be on the ground, if Poirier can get Johnson down. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Poirier behind slightly in the early exchanges, only to come on late and win the fight. It’s a competitive one, but Johnson has faded in each of his last two fights, and I don’t think there’s reason to think the same does happen against Poirier.
All the tools are there for Derek Brunson to beat Uriah Hall, but he’s also susceptible to getting his block knocked off in this fight. I have to pick Brunson because if he takes the right approach to this one, he should smother Hall’s offense almost entirely, but for some reason I’m more hesitant than I feel I should be. Perhaps I’m reading too much into Brunson having success on the feet recently and assuming he’ll stand for longer than he should. However, after seeing Hall taken down and unable to do anything against Mousasi, Brunson should at the very least be able to control him on the mat, and be looking to implement a similar gameplan.
Rick Glenn is a quality fighter, but he’s a featherweight facing a top 15 lightweight. Perhaps he can have success using the 6″ reach advantage he has over Evan Dunham, but you have to anticipate Dunham getting inside and simply being able to bully Glenn against the cage, to the mat, and once on the ground. Maybe there’s a submission for Dunham somewhere along the way, but even if he doesn’t get one, this is a fighter who has only lost to top 10 lightweights over the past five years. Glenn isn’t that.
I think Albert Morales can definitely get to Alejandro Perez. So far in the UFC Perez has won his TUF finale, gotten obliterated by Patrick Williams, and then scored wins over a physically broken Scotty Jorgensen and perhaps the most one-dimensional fighter in recent UFC history. I’m yet to be impressed. Morales has pretty quick hands and some decent power, along with some decent submission ability. Unless Perez has made some massive leaps in his game, I think he goes down here.
Kenny Robertson is perennially underrated. He looks generic and he has a job outside of fighting, so I get it, but he’s also perfectly capable of beating nearly any fighter who is willing to grapple with him. Roan Carneiro has an edge if the fight remains at distance, but in the clinch Robertson outworks most opponents, and if/when this hits the mat Carneiro will likely be on the bottom where Robertson can neutralize his BJJ. If Carneiro manages to get top position that could be bad news for Robertson, so I’m not too confident in the pick, but if I can get a decent number here it could be another shot on a guy who has made me a decent amount over the years.
This is a solid test for Islam Makhachev, and the movement of the line will be interesting to watch as well. Like most Russians of late, he was a bit overvalued against an opponent who was beyond him in both skill and experience. Now he’s facing a guy who, while primarily known as a wrestler, flashed some much improved striking against a fighter similar to Makhachev in his last fight. Will Makhachev have the wrestling to get past Wade’s takedown defense, and if he doesn’t can he close up some of the holes in his defensive striking? If the public thinks the answer to both questions is yes and they bet him up accordingly, I may be persuaded to take a shot on Wade.