What's the path for Oliveira to beat Islam ?

[fortheo]

He needs to attack the legs. I've never seen islam check a leg lick in his life -- he typically prefers to counter them with takedowns, but oliveira excels at snatching necks when people try to convert his kicks into takedowns, and islam already said he is only interested in upper body takedowns against charles for exactly that reason. All of that to say that the leg licks will be there.

Stay long, keep his range, and attack the legs because Islam's defense is built around his footwork. Charles need to limit Islam's movement. Also, all the kicks from long range might make islam be the aggressor (something he rarely is) and open him up to counter punches.

If he can successfully slow islam's footwork down with leg kicks, then he can start to pressure more the way he typically likes to because Islam's defense, which is largely based on movement and footwork, will be hindered.

He should limit the grappling as much as humanly possible, but if he can't, then he should do his damn best to make sure the grappling is in open space and not against the cage where he can't get his hips into play. Play guard only as a means to create space and get back up or sweep.

 

[Poatan Power]

Stay off his back.

Get back up quickly if taken down.

Attack the body, try to wear Islam down.

Easy, right?

He needs to attack the legs. I've never seen islam check a leg lick in his life -- he typically prefers to counter them with takedowns, but oliveira excels at snatching necks when people try to concert his kicks into takedowns, and island already said he is only interested in upper body takedowns against charles for exactly that reason. All of that to say that the leg licks will be there.

Stay long, keep his range, and attack the legs because tons of Islam's Islam's defence is built around his footwork. Charles need to limit Islam's movement. Also, all the kicks from long range might make islam be the aggressor (something he rarely) and open him up to counter punches.

If he can successfully slow islam down with leg licks, then he can start to pressure more because Islam's defence, which is largely based on movement and footwork, will be hindered.

He should limit the grappling as much as humanly possible, but if he can't, then he should do his damn best to make sure the grappling is in open space and not against the cage where he can't get his hips into play. Play guard only as a means to create space and get back up or sweep.

Avoiding the cage is critical. islam is just like Khabib. Decent open mat wrestler but the cage is where they're elite.

 

[PEDRO IVO RUSSO MIRANDA]

He needs to attack the legs. I've never seen islam check a leg lick in his life -- he typically prefers to counter them with takedowns, but oliveira excels at snatching necks when people try to concert his kicks into takedowns, and island already said he is only interested in upper body takedowns against charles for exactly that reason. All of that to say that the leg licks will be there.

Stay long, keep his range, and attack the legs because tons of Islam's Islam's defence is built around his footwork. Charles need to limit Islam's movement. Also, all the kicks from long range might make islam be the aggressor (something he rarely) and open him up to counter punches.

If he can successfully slow islam down with leg licks, then he can start to pressure more because Islam's defence, which is largely based on movement and footwork, will be hindered.

He should limit the grappling as much as humanly possible, but if he can't, then he should do his damn best to make sure the grappling is in open space and not against the cage where he can't get his hips into play. Play guard only as a means to create space and get back up or sweep.

Good analysis man.
I agree with everything, except for the cage.
I think islam pressure on the cage is insane, he spam takedowns against the fence all day.
I think in the center his BJJ probably work better, but anyway, I think he should avoid the grappling too, maybe fainting some takedowns, but just to change the stand up.

Leg kicking islam and kepping the range seems a good gameplan to me.

 

[Flower2dPeople]

Islam couldn’t get Volk off him when he was on bottom. If Charles gets on top, he’s done for.

Volk's gameplan is different than Charles. He has more of a wrestling mentality and would fight tooth and nail to maintain top position. Charles will roll to his back if he finds a viable transition.

 

[Huligani]

More knees and kicks this time. Thai plum. The usual stuff we see from Charles but didn't see the first time around.

A flying knee is what got him dropped and finish. As for knees in the clinch, that's just not gonna work on one of these Dagestanis.

 

[HolmeZy55]

Islam couldn’t get Volk off him when he was on bottom. If Charles gets on top, he’s done for.

Volk and Charles are two completely different fighters, Oli doesn't have the dominant wrestling and smothering top game of Volk nor does he have his cardio, this is no path for Charles.

Chucky only has one option, knock Islam out or down and jump on a sub as quick as possible and hope for the best.

 

[Takes_Two_To_Tango]

He needs to attack the legs. I've never seen islam check a leg lick in his life -- he typically prefers to counter them with takedowns, but oliveira excels at snatching necks when people try to concert his kicks into takedowns, and island already said he is only interested in upper body takedowns against charles for exactly that reason. All of that to say that the leg licks will be there.

Stay long, keep his range, and attack the legs because tons of Islam's Islam's defence is built around his footwork. Charles need to limit Islam's movement. Also, all the kicks from long range might make islam be the aggressor (something he rarely) and open him up to counter punches.

If he can successfully slow islam down with leg licks, then he can start to pressure more because Islam's defence, which is largely based on movement and footwork, will be hindered.

He should limit the grappling as much as humanly possible, but if he can't, then he should do his damn best to make sure the grappling is in open space and not against the cage where he can't get his hips into play. Play guard only as a means to create space and get back up or sweep.

Nicely put breakdown. I think that's a great gameplan.

 

[fortheo]

Good analysis man.
I agree with everything, except for the cage.
I think islam pressure on the cage is insane, he spam takedowns against the fence all day.
I think in the center his BJJ probably work better, but anyway, I think he should avoid the grappling too, maybe fainting some takedowns, but just to change the stand up.

Leg kicking islam and kepping the range seems a good gameplan to me.

That's what I was saying. If charles is going to grapple with him, which I don't recommend, but if he must, then he should do his best for it to be away from the cage.

 

[User9992]

Lucky punch is only way. IMHO

 

[flektarn]

A flying knee is what got him dropped and finish. As for knees in the clinch, that's just not gonna work on one of these Dagestanis.

Knees and kicks not flying knees. That's his bread and butter is hard knees to the body.

 

[L0ki]

I'm a huge Charles fan, but I think islam is really a heavy favorite in that second figth.
I feel like Charles should keep his distance with long strikes, pay attention in takedown attempts, and control the clinch exchanges.
Unfortunately I think he's gonna go straight looking for a brawl .

What's the chances of Charles scoring a takedown itself? Can islam defend being in bottom position?

Both fighters fresh, wich one do you think would win the scrambles?

Tell me what you think

Oliveira saying he doesn't think it's fair to fight Islam again in Abu Dhabi:

https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/C...ace-Islam-Makhachev-in-Abu-Dhabi-Again-191240


He hasn't learned to play the game enough. If he did, they would be fighting in Brasil, which is a huge thing for a Brasilian. They get super pumped at home.

It is weird that they did both matches in Abu Dhabi.

 

[Skarsgard]

He needs to take the Jamie Varner approach and just say fuck it. Ignore what Islam's gonna try to do and land a big shot. If he second guesses for a second, he's gonna be stuck with Islam glued to him waiting for an opening.
A massive benefit for him is that Islam has dog shit striking defense outside of the threat of a takedown and timing on his shot. His head doesn't move off the line and it's straight up in the air at all times.

 

[Thepaintbucket]

Man Islam is such a stylistic nightmare for Charles. The thing that made Oliviera dangerous is neutralized by islam and might have even forced Charles to stay on the more conservative side, which ironically mirrors his previous oppositions fears.

You don't want to go to the ground with Islam and you can't really wildly swing at him either knowing the fact that he's just sitting back and waiting to counter you again. Charles really does need to utilize his kicks more if he wants any chance of beating Islam.

I guess use kicks to break Islam's rhythm and to immobilize him. Maybe once Charles can soften him up that will get Islam to open up and expose some striking opportunities. On the other hand, throwing kicks may result in Islam taking him down

 

[Trabaho]

I think he is losing. Maybe land a perfect kick knee punch and take it from there. Islam is a bad match up for him and has the home crowd advantage

 

[Sincere Guy]

He needs to take the Jamie Varner approach and just say fuck it. Ignore what Islam's gonna try to do and land a big shot. If he second guesses for a second, he's gonna be stuck with Islam glued to him waiting for an opening.
A massive benefit for him is that Islam has dog shit striking defense outside of the threat of a takedown and timing on his shot. His head doesn't move off the line and it's straight up in the air at all times.

That's it, to me the better response until now. Like Charles always says, he must be him. Fight as Charles Oliveira, nothing more. In the moment he starts fearing Makhachev's qualities, it will be almost over. I say "almost" because one can adjust the gameplan and mindset, but it's very difficult to do it in a fight like that. It must be a very calculated person. I only disagree Makhachev's striking defense is shit, because defense has many facets. Maybe technically you are right, but he does have a very good timing and counters that only calculated fighters can give proper responses for those.

I wouldn't say Charles isn't that guy, like Volkanovski for instance, but I can say Charles that fought Dariush was a much different Charles, way more aware, and this can change the game for this fight because we all know he is the better, more dangerous striker by far. And his guard game is high level, he doesn't have any problems in being there if needed. And if he manages to get on top on the ground, we all know what he is capable of.

What I'm really concerned is about his takedown defense technique. He always seems a little bit anxious in giving a fast reversal response and almost always ends on the ground, not the first time. And against Makhachev can be really tiring. Dariush is very good, way better BJJ than Makhachev, but Makhachev has way more pressure there. Hope Charles can have better answers in this department, a little bit here and there will do.

Taking into consideration all of this and patience, his chances are pretty decent. And his mindset, of course, because he already lost to the guy and, if not properly dealt with that inside the head, we already know it will be way harder to win. Dariush's fight showed to me he already won that mindset battle, but of course fighting the guy who did it is way different, maybe the first minutes of the fight will give us an answer about that. I believe in Charles. We'll see what happens.

 

[Conan the K-9]

Better distance management by using his longer reach, and being more defensive sound like he showed us in the Benny fight. Avoid the fence.
Leg kicks standing up and going for the legs if the fight gets to the ground. Does not really need to commit for anything just threathening is enough.

He landed last time some really good knees in the clinch, but that also puts him in danger for the trips.
There was a little glove grabbing in that first fight, when his opponent was setting up his beautiful judo throws and trips. Charles needs be sure that does not happen again.

 

[Dirty Frank]

Islam couldn’t get Volk off him when he was on bottom. If Charles gets on top, he’s done for.

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

Oliveira saying he doesn't think it's fair to fight Islam again in Abu Dhabi:

https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/C...ace-Islam-Makhachev-in-Abu-Dhabi-Again-191240


He hasn't learned to play the game enough. If he did, they would be fighting in Brasil, which is a huge thing for a Brasilian. They get super pumped at home.

It is weird that they did both matches in Abu Dhabi.

Charles isn't a big enough draw or too nice or a guy to have argued when he was champion for the home crowd advantage. Too bad he missed weight against Gaethje, he would have had much more pull that way. This way, he can make sure that if he wins, the trilogy is finished in Sao Paulo, not only in Brazil but Olivera's literal hometown (also fuck Rio fans after they disrespected our boy Glover in his retirement)

 

[LLLZZZ]

to knock him out or to submit him (heel hook or triangle), otherwise islam wins

 

[KarateYeah]

If he can successfully slow islam down with leg licks, then he can start to pressure more because Islam's defense, which is largely based on movement and footwork, will be hindered.

Damn, never thought about that. Def. licking his legs is a good strategy and should put him off his game!