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your official ufc 196 bets

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 27, 2016.

  1. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    For now:

    Ishihara (livebet): $ 10 to win $ 13
    Sanchez: $ 10 to win $ 13
    Elkins (livebet): $ 10 to win $ 39
    Skelly/Elkins over 2.5: $ 10 to win $ 4
    Erick Silva: $ 30 to win $ 13,50. Lost $ 30
    Bahadurzada (livebet) $ 10 to win $ 14
    Nunes via decision: $ 8 to win $ 24
    Corey Anderson via decision: $ 8 to win $ 7,28
    Latifi: $ 25 to win $ 12,50
    Holm: $ 15 to win $ 5,40 Lost $ 15
    Holm (livebet) $ 10 to win $ 6 Lost $ 10
    E. Silva + Holm + Conor KO: $ 10 to win $ 15,06. Lost $ 10

    Result: $ 61,78

    Original BR: $ 341,06
    New BR: $ 402,82
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2016
  2. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    It´s always a pleasure to see your bets JimGunn & EzFlyer - It´s very fascinating for a new bettor like myself to see yuor bets and try and understand the decisions behind each bet, and get some inspiration. I was wondering if you´d be willing to share some of your reasons/strategies for your betting strategy? And of course EzFlyer, that you last time we spoke mentioned was the person you first chatted abotut betting and modelled your strategy after. I´d absolutely love to strike up a conversation with either of you, if you wouldn´t mind sahring some of the thinking, as you both seem incredible skilled. At least to me you both seem like experts, so I hope you don´t mind me asking.

    I´ll throw in my bets now I´m here aswell.

    Amanda Nunes Win vs Valentina Shevchenko $25 for $50

    Ilir Latifi wins in R1 $35 for $115
    Ilir Latifi wins vs Gian Villante $50 for $75

    Holly Holm wins vs Miesha Tate $50 for $65
    Holly Holm wins by points/techinical decision $35 for $105
    Holly Holm wins in round 3 $15 for $160
    Holly Holm wins in round 4 $15 for $220
    Holly Holm wins in round 5 $15 for $250

    Conor Mcgregor Win vs Nate Diaz $50 for $60

    Paylays
    Ilir Latafi + Holly Holm + Conor Mcgregor Finish $150 for $370
    Ilir Latafi + Holly Holm + Conor Mcgregor Finish $150 for $370
    Ilir Latafi + Holly Holm Finish + Conor Mcgregor Finish $45 for $160
    Ilir Latafi + Holly Holm Finish + Conor Mcgregor Finish $75 for $275

    Last week I lost around 700$ on my first time betting ever. Went to Silva and lost obviously. Was only frustrating due to I felt he definitely had every option to win. I´m hoping to recoover some of it this time which is a huge mistake. I´ve been reading as much as I can on theforums, every prediction on the internet I could find from people doing it regularly, and I´m trying to train myself. I.e this week for the Ilir Latafi fight I watched 3 fights of his, and 3 for Gian Villante, my goal is to watch the last 5 fights including at least 2 wins and 2 losses to determine why they lost and if the upcoming fighter thenwill be a problem. I know from last time 1 fight is not enough, so this time i upped it to 3 for each fighter and next time i´ll do 5. Im trying very hard not to be influenced by what other peole think but i want to create my own knowledge base in my head so to speak.

    What i noticed personally for Latafi this time was:

    Strengths
    - Great explosive power/extremly quick
    - One punch KO ability/Very hard hits

    Weaknesses
    - Very weak to kicks especially to the body which he lost to
    - His own kicks and due to his low height are very weak/aka none existent

    While for Gian Villante I noticed

    Strengths
    - Often goes for strong headkicks
    - Main weapon is his kicks

    Weaknesses
    - He gasses very easily after one round
    - He´s very hittable, he always got hit
    - Bad defense, thus I´m sure Latafi will be able to do his punches and with such hard hits I don´t see him holding up.
    - Very slow movements, slow kicks overall and punches.

    Now I might be wrong about all of this. I´m new and only trying to learn and i want to see if i can get my own predictions right to the experts or see what im doing wrong. - I´m only trying to learn, and I´d love to hear how to get to know fighters. Like I feel its way too much for me to get to know every fighter, so i´m trying sowly to get into 2-4 fighters aka 2 completly new fights per event. I´d had done Erick silva and Nordine Taleb too, but unfortunately my provider will only show the main event so I skipped those. But this is why i went for the paylays as i have a strong hope for him. I know i got way too many units/money on them though, I´m just hoping this is a one time i have to do this, whether or not it goes well I won´t be doing this again as i´ve heard this is a very bad idea, and I need to learn about unit managaement and bankrolls. I also had to tell myself that its better to not lose money than try get happy for potential huge profits, as that cost me alot last time. Its betetr to getthe win a get a bit than being greedy for the finishes.

    Obviously i´ve taken a bit of inspiration from you Jimgunn, which I hope is okay. And i´m sorry if my conversions are a tad off. I had to use a converter as I´m not uisng USD where I bet. Its actually ery bad odds im getting compared to another site i want to join for the next event. Thanks to everyone for showing your bets and your knowledge. I appreciate it so much to get to learn from everyone.
     
  3. wigglestick pess de gward Platinum Member

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    Heres my UFC 196 bets, posted a bit late but all main event other then 5$ flyer on siyar.

    Latifi fastest ko - 4 to win 24
    Not Mcgregor in round 1 - 52.50 to win 25
    Not Mcgregor in round 1/ Latifi U3 - 15 to win 14.91
    Latifi U3/ Diaz more takedowns - 4 to win 11.13
    Latifi/ Diaz more takedowns - 5.50 to win 18.46
    Latifi ITD/ Diaz more takedowns - 3.50 to win 15.81
    Latifi/ Not Mcgregor round 1 - 6.50 to win 8.43
    Latifi round 1/ diaz more takedowns - 2.25 to win 17.91
     
  4. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    Well that was it. Lost all the parlays and the holm fight. 1300 usd down on 2 events haha. New strategy needed for me. I was so scared for Holm to get choked out, the first time, then the second tiem right after...thought shecameback and could be careful thelast round but then she got choked out. She´d had won the decision but of course with my luck shehad to be choked out, even going unconcious. Damm...
     
  5. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    Didn't have the time to post picks before the event

    Nate Diaz $300 @ 4.15 +$945 / $150 @ 4.85 +$579 / $100 @ 5.00 +$400
    Tate $75 @ 3.45 +$184
    Latifi $300 @ 1.534 +$160
    Nunes $200 @ 1.813 +$163 / $200 @ 1.943 +$189
    Skelly $200 @ 1.657 -$200
    Sanchez $150 @ 2.20 +$180

    Tate/Holm o2.5 $300 @ 1.48 +$144
    Taleb/Silva o1.5 $200 @ 1.684 -$200
    Miranda/Guimares u2.5 $100 @ 1.775 +$77

    +$2,621
     
  6. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Awful event for me. First time i ever bet Conor and he lost me 2k ffs. Would be 2.5k down but done well lb so damage just over £1700. Would have broke even roughly as lb Holm loads so she basically broke my night after climbing out of a big hole thanks to Silva.

    I have had my worst 2.5 months of MMA betting ever. My pre bets have fallen to shit. Im still where i was br wise at the turn of the year but thats only cos of lb. I never used to lb really and over the last three years have had an 80% winning rate on two man parlay pre bets. These last two months i think im 2-5 jeez. Really hope this is just a bad spell never experienced so many losses before.

    Grats all winners.
     
  7. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    I feel for you bro. You know what I´ve been thinking? ALL this time since way back before the aldo fight, I thought to myself if i bet on conor that will be the time he loses ands i´l lregret it. And if i dont bet on him he´ll keep winning and i´ll regret it. Of course this is all me just being supersticious - but what happened the first time i bet on conor and you bet on conor? He lost. Same with Holly.

    Sorry to hear your huge 2k loss man, that really sucks. I had a latifi - holm - conor finish parlay - so already after the holm fight i was pissed, and then thought "oh i should had bet it all on conor just winning" but then he loses too....what are the odds..this is twice for me last time with silva and again a huge lost. 1300 dollars down, on the first 2 events ever trying to bet. Im gonna completly rethink my strategy and not go for the big plays. Paylays does not work for me. I hope oneday i can make a huge win like that though. My plan was to recover my losses from last week, which was stupid but thought what the hell one time it may work, cant go wrong2 times with a 50+% chance of it happening, but it could.

    Sorry to everyone who lost, i know alot of people had a ton of moneyon conor...but oh the irony of knowing first time you bet on him he´d lose....wtf lol....

    Also huge congratulation to you Zomb, amazing profits there, same with all the other winners. I also had nunes and latifi on straight bets but with very little money so nothing to speak about. i like those huge bets seperated it seems to decreaase the risk.
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2016
  8. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    It was one of those events you get a few every year where the dogs bark loudly. I expect most the guys here made a loss. Tate winning with a min left was so unlucky for Holm backers you cant predict that shit.
     
  9. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    I dont know, a few people did believe she´d be able to do it. I saw a guy on the forum having 1000 usd on holm/conor, that must have went down the drain. i find it kinda funny the fight i was worried about, latifi, was the one that went well for me. I didnt bother to refresh meisha/holm conor/nate - i did a ton of research on latifi and gian, it paid off. but holm and conor was sure 100% wins right? funny enough thats always when it goes wrong. Good lesson to be learned for me though. This even makes me think that the DC/Jones fight will be an upset, seems like it with this luck. Then rockhold wil lose to weidman? they are sure wins, but i guess not. lets hope it gets better soon.
     
  10. UAK Purple Belt

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    For some reason I thought I was the only one who lost money on this event. My night turned to shit when Holm lost and over 4.5 KOs didn't hit. However I didn't get demolished completely thanks to Siyar upset and Latifi. The worst was Holm... ffs she was winning.

    Only had 0.1u on Diaz. Couldn't bring myself to put a serious bet on him. Had the same problem when conor faced aldo, put like 0.1u on conor.
     
  11. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    Did you had Holm for a win or a finish? How much did you have on her like money wise?
    I only had around 50$ on Latifi, but it saved home the only money i got. Did you bet big on him?
    Seems like alot of people lost on Holly Holm. I had hoped for an amazing finish in r3-4-5 due to the odds being like 20 times the money, had hoped for another ronda headkick finish so to say.
     
  12. piglord Black Belt

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    yeah horrible. i had a premonition tate was gonna get outworked the entire match then somehow drag it to the ground and get a sub. didn't think it would hapen right at the death though. god knows what the fuck vegas dave's prediction was based on to make him wager that much cash on tate.

    i'm like you in that my style is predominantly based on hammering percieved mismatches in small parlays. been going through rough times as well because there have been a lot of logic-defying events lately. i'm still okay just not profitable right now.

    i think last night was just one of those crazy events, although i did make some bad calls.

    i had a corey, thatch and holm parlay. if the first 2 hit i would have hedged on holm/tate but really wasn't aware of how bad thatch's TDD was. if that shit hit i was gonna go all in on diaz which is fucking excrutiating.
     
  13. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    i'm actually shocked that people were so high on Connor, and betting him at that price. Saying that it was for sure a 100% win and a once in a lifetime (overexatterating a little bit) thing that he lost is insane

    Nate is a solid boxer, far superior on the ground, Connor was moving up 2 weightclasses. You can't just put on a lot of muscle and expect to fight great with it when you're not used to it.

    Connor should never have been that big of a favorite IMO, I expected the line to drop when it was released at 4.15, thats why I put most of my bet at that time. 1.20-1.25 on Connor was not worth a big bet imo, let alone in a parlay (which is a horrible way to bet in the first place imo)
     
  14. UAK Purple Belt

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    2.5u on Holm to win. Had 2u on latifi.

    Lost -5.xx units last night. Rough night but it's still far from the worst night I've had. Missing the greatest LB opportunity of the year(Elkins after round 1) hurts.
     
  15. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    Missing the greatest LBoppertunity? Sorry for my ignorance but what does that mean, LB? lightweight bout?
     
  16. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    livebet
     
  17. UAK Purple Belt

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    I believed Conor would win but -400 wtf? No way I was gonna touch that. I was one of the few in here who didn't bet on Aldo(tiny bet on Conor) and I saw zero value in his odds. Conor is used to having a longer reach suddenly he was the one with a reach disadvantage against a solid boxer with awesome cardio and moving up in weight, paying -400 to -450 given the circumstances was fucking crazy. I would have bet Conor if he was around -270 to -300 though but now we know that even that would have been a horrible square bet.
     
  18. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Was thinking that this would turn out to be a great event for me coming in to the Holly fight. It wasn't. Holm and Conor losing put me back -7u in totalt instead of +9u. As many others im kicking myself for not going harder on Elkins and Andersons gift LB lines.
     
  19. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    agreed. I would expect Connor to win a majority of the times, but at those lines you can't touch him. +400 on Nate was way to high
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Up 7.9u pre fight betting but gave almost all of it back LB. Won 2.1u. Holly getting finished like that was just a monster swing to the bad for me. That said I'm super happy for Meisha. She knew she was behind and just freaking went for it and got it. Which is what fighters should do when they are behind. Not gonna complain too much a winning night is a winning night and the last two fights were amazing.
     

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