Official UFC Fight Night 79 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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Soccer
20 Palace 11.76
20 Djoko-Inter-Palace 32.40
10 Palace-Zenit-Chelsea 38.02

O'Shea's back for Sunderland which scares me a bit tbh as Palace are relying on wingers up top again but clean sheets are rarer than rocking horse shit for Sunderland. Hoping for a decent game out of Wickham against his old club. Chamakh's on the bench as well & Palace should have enough to get the W
 
Any early thoughts on Silva vs. Belfort III at 197? What do we think the opening lines will be?
 
Ellenberger and Erick Silva training with Kings MMA too. Mina has certainly had some great sparring partners.
 
Hufusopem said:
He's essentially a smaller version of Stungun with more fluid & polished striking, but with a less dominant overall grappling game (but still very good).

If you've seen Stungun or Kyung Ho Kang fight you'll get a decent idea of how DHK 2 fights. They all come from the same camp and all the TEAM MAD fighters fight similarly.

He's better at everything technically than his opponent, but he's a natural LW jumping up to WW so size may be a factor. He should still be a solid favorite imo so I would definitely recommend betting for DHK 2 if he's the underdog.

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took a look at baby dongs record and I cant find a single good win, even his losses and there are quite a few are against cans

he has a couple of losses against guys with records like 14-18, 7-11

not saying that he is bad but on paper he doesnt look that promising, Dominique Steele has fought the much better competition and by far has the better wins
 
Dominic Waters training out of Jackson Wink. Might be something to look out for...

DHK has never really evolved since he's been here honestly. He went through a phase where he wanted to be more exciting but it lead him to being a brawler and he managed to score a couple finishes but also got finished himself. I didn't see any technical changes to his stand up.

Hard to avoid a grinder of his caliber but if there's any camp that can come up with a gameplan... you know the rest. If they're expecting the same type of DHK to show up there's plenty of tape to go off of while with Dominic there's not much other than his debut against Sullivan (I really hated watching that video). Dominic is an athlete but he needs a 180° change of approach to his fighting style I'm sure that's what he's seeking making the move to New Mexico. It's speculation and a swing in the dark but I don't see see a reason to play DHK at big odds when he's a flawed fighter himself.

I wrote another piece regarding this topic in the last thread but since it was closed I think it was deleted off the history. Also gave my opinion on Gunnar being the better bet against Maia.
 
Hufusopem said:
He's essentially a smaller version of Stungun with more fluid & polished striking, but with a less dominant overall grappling game (but still very good).

If you've seen Stungun or Kyung Ho Kang fight you'll get a decent idea of how DHK 2 fights. They all come from the same camp and all the TEAM MAD fighters fight similarly.

He's better at everything technically than his opponent, but he's a natural LW jumping up to WW so size may be a factor. He should still be a solid favorite imo so I would definitely recommend betting for DHK 2 if he's the underdog.

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Cheers for the video, checked around and could not find anything it just auto searched stun gun and no way was I going to type in little dong.

Guy looks solid, some powerful and accurate punches with a good base and he is young also, only thing I spotted was he was fighting 155 pounds and now 170 pounds against steele, both guys are however same height and stats are similar.
Little dong might just be a decent dog !


Sham5916910 said:
Gone degen for some action should really wait to lb as no confidence really in this card but in case no lb ive gone for it.

Stun Gun + Mina £250 @ +200. If lb up will try to hedge if need be but willing to take a risk. This bet is a lot smaller than my usual outlays but i cant justify betting my usual amount.
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Mina is a worry still, just glancing over his record so many round 1 wins and every opponent a can really, but those 8 weeks in a proper camp and with those beast his cardio, fight iq, striking must have improved greatly so its hard to not enjoy those dog odds.

I have gone over 5-6 of the fights and this Korean card is nuts....so many fights look like they were just designed for brawling rock em n sock em robot fighters, its probably the only thing to get the silent crowd going.

I reckon big dong will get tagged and those odds will flip during lb, and even choi should not be rated that high this is pretty much his hardest opponent to face yet.
Masvidal is always game so will see.

Reckon we will have some decent underdogs and plenty of twist on this card !
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Dominic Waters training out of Jackson Wink. Might be something to look out for...

DHK has never really evolved since he's been here honestly. He went through a phase where he wanted to be more exciting but it lead him to being a brawler and he managed to score a couple finishes but also got finished himself. I didn't see any technical changes to his stand up.

Hard to avoid a grinder of his caliber but if there's any camp that can come up with a gameplan... you know the rest. If they're expecting the same type of DHK to show up there's plenty of tape to go off of while with Dominic there's not much other than his debut against Sullivan (I really hated watching that video). Dominic is an athlete but he needs a 180° change of approach to his fighting style I'm sure that's what he's seeking making the move to New Mexico. It's speculation and a swing in the dark but I don't see see a reason to play DHK at big odds when he's a flawed fighter himself.

I wrote another piece regarding this topic in the last thread but since it was closed I think it was deleted off the history. Also gave my opinion on Gunnar being the better bet against Maia.
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Yup see those issues, big dong gets a bit too predictable and he carries his hands low since he is always expecting that clinch and grinding style, waters has some heavy hands but he also seemed a bit flat footed, I wonder if in his camp they improved his foot work, issue is escaping big dong once he gets hold of you is another mission on its own!

Interesting gunnar thoughts, I know he has multiple jiu jitsu 1st-3rd place awards and is a decent black belt himself, certainly could be over looking it with maia's recent success, if you can give a more detailed b/d when closer to fight time would be interested also.
 
Did the bookies cock up again at end of r4 of Magny fight and have draw @ +5000 or so?
 
Like lot dogs Zhikui, Mina, Beltran and Maestro Kim.

Masvidal maybe...
 
blokeybloke said:
Soccer
20 Palace 11.76
20 Djoko-Inter-Palace 32.40
10 Palace-Zenit-Chelsea 38.02

O'Shea's back for Sunderland which scares me a bit tbh as Palace are relying on wingers up top again but clean sheets are rarer than rocking horse shit for Sunderland. Hoping for a decent game out of Wickham against his old club. Chamakh's on the bench as well & Palace should have enough to get the W
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Palace 0-1 Sunderland

I'm at a loss as to how to describe how Palace actually lost this game. Sunderland played a 6 man defence allowing Palace to dominate the game but they're so criminally abject up front they pissed chance after chance away. Sloppy midfielder gave the ball away for the umpteenth time which lead to an embarrassing cock-up at the back by the CB & Goalie that gifted Sunderland a goal. They only way they were going to get on the scoresheet, tbh.

Woeful. Pardew needs shooting for keeping Wickham on for for 75mins. The kid is utter shit.

Am stunned :p
 
Wanted to load up my BM account for upcoming lb opportunities, so I tried to do a book to book transfer from 5d to bookmaker. Holy shit it was a pain in this ass and didn't even work.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Did the bookies cock up again at end of r4 of Magny fight and have draw @ +5000 or so?
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I'm 99.9% sure 365 didn't. I was watching out for it between round 4 and 5 and all I saw was "Magny 1/4 Gastelum 5/2"
 
Ukram said:
Yup see those issues, big dong gets a bit too predictable and he carries his hands low since he is always expecting that clinch and grinding style, waters has some heavy hands but he also seemed a bit flat footed, I wonder if in his camp they improved his foot work, issue is escaping big dong once he gets hold of you is another mission on its own!

Interesting gunnar thoughts, I know he has multiple jiu jitsu 1st-3rd place awards and is a decent black belt himself, certainly could be over looking it with maia's recent success, if you can give a more detailed b/d when closer to fight time would be interested also.
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Posted in last thread:

So originally I thought Big DHK was going to be -1000 and is surprised to see him opening up a bit lower and still sitting at that price but once I thought about it some more I'm not really trusting of DHK's nature as a fighter. He's a very sloppy brawler and doesn't have great footwork. His clinch being his most daunting aspect for another fighter to work around.

This Dominic guy was really underwhelming against George Sullivan and I pretty much deemed him a straight bum. But I can't help but wonder if he could also be in a Neil Magny type position where he's he's got amazing attributes (6'1" with 80" reach) and could be a guy looking to improve on a fight by fight basis. He fancies himself as a wrestler but was easily out scrambled by Sullivan and he even looked helpless off his back where he just pretty much held on for dear life to stall. That really grinds my gears watching a fighter do that, pulling up guard and not doing anything but losing off your back.

Having said that, I tried to look up any tape on this cat prior to his debut and I saw a video of him sparring about 4 months ago and he actually looked pretty good. Go look up it yourself and see if you think there may be any improvement and let me know if my eyes are fooling me. I didn't catch his TUF stint but I read that he had a KO getting into the house and competitive match with Ricci.

Many advantages are on DHK's side and he's very likely to win but I wonder if he's too predictable and isn't improving. Thoughts?

Thoughts on Maia?

I can't say much else about Demian with his BJJ, dude is one of my favorite technicians on the mat and a good wrestler in his own right. He even beat the surging Magny with a visible staph infection on his leg.

That said I think Gunnar can definitely beat him, not just in the stand up either where he'll surely have an edge but on the mat I think he could out scramble Maia and land in the guard at points in this fight.

Demian has been known to pull guard before and work his sweep game but that's not a good strategy against Gunnar honestly because he'll in turn willingly put himself into a losing disposition. Demian has long been known as the anti wrestler in that guys can't really LnP him, not to say Gunnar will look to do that, but I don't think Maia's sweep game will look as smooth as it usually does against Nelson.

All in all, I'm not saying Maia isn't going to win but I think the value here is on Gunnar. How often will you get to bet a world class grappler at dog odds. He's IMO got the speed and striking advantage and he's pretty good when he's on top he's not going to get swept easily, especially going into the later rounds where Maia has gassed before.

+125 is my play on Gunnar, otherwise Demian Maia by decision is the other option. I don't think Gunnar is amazing off his back but I think he's good enough that he won't get submitted.

On a side note, it might sound really crazy but I bet Jake shields by split decision for 50 bucks at +1100 a while back and it was probably the most I've ever bet on a split prop next to MM over Benavidez. Side note #2, same card I went big on DHK over Erick silva...... by decision. Oops lol
 
DHK is gonna kill Waters. Such a bad matchup for him.

RL, i'm also on Gunnar. Think he is potentially a very bad matchup for Maia.
 
@blokeybloke glad I didn't bet the cp/Sunderland game. Didn't see Sunderland winning at all! Lol
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Posted in last thread:

So originally I thought Big DHK was going to be -1000 and is surprised to see him opening up a bit lower and still sitting at that price but once I thought about it some more I'm not really trusting of DHK's nature as a fighter. He's a very sloppy brawler and doesn't have great footwork. His clinch being his most daunting aspect for another fighter to work around.

This Dominic guy was really underwhelming against George Sullivan and I pretty much deemed him a straight bum. But I can't help but wonder if he could also be in a Neil Magny type position where he's he's got amazing attributes (6'1" with 80" reach) and could be a guy looking to improve on a fight by fight basis. He fancies himself as a wrestler but was easily out scrambled by Sullivan and he even looked helpless off his back where he just pretty much held on for dear life to stall. That really grinds my gears watching a fighter do that, pulling up guard and not doing anything but losing off your back.

Having said that, I tried to look up any tape on this cat prior to his debut and I saw a video of him sparring about 4 months ago and he actually looked pretty good. Go look up it yourself and see if you think there may be any improvement and let me know if my eyes are fooling me. I didn't catch his TUF stint but I read that he had a KO getting into the house and competitive match with Ricci.

Many advantages are on DHK's side and he's very likely to win but I wonder if he's too predictable and isn't improving. Thoughts?

Thoughts on Maia?

I can't say much else about Demian with his BJJ, dude is one of my favorite technicians on the mat and a good wrestler in his own right. He even beat the surging Magny with a visible staph infection on his leg.

That said I think Gunnar can definitely beat him, not just in the stand up either where he'll surely have an edge but on the mat I think he could out scramble Maia and land in the guard at points in this fight.

Demian has been known to pull guard before and work his sweep game but that's not a good strategy against Gunnar honestly because he'll in turn willingly put himself into a losing disposition. Demian has long been known as the anti wrestler in that guys can't really LnP him, not to say Gunnar will look to do that, but I don't think Maia's sweep game will look as smooth as it usually does against Nelson.

All in all, I'm not saying Maia isn't going to win but I think the value here is on Gunnar. How often will you get to bet a world class grappler at dog odds. He's IMO got the speed and striking advantage and he's pretty good when he's on top he's not going to get swept easily, especially going into the later rounds where Maia has gassed before.

+125 is my play on Gunnar, otherwise Demian Maia by decision is the other option. I don't think Gunnar is amazing off his back but I think he's good enough that he won't get submitted.

On a side note, it might sound really crazy but I bet Jake shields by split decision for 50 bucks at +1100 a while back and it was probably the most I've ever bet on a split prop next to MM over Benavidez. Side note #2, same card I went big on DHK over Erick silva...... by decision. Oops lol
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Cheers yeah caught that before, will be an interesting match up for both fighters ill be re-watching tape on both come closer to fight time, naturally will post a b/d !
 
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