Official UFN 85 Thread - Brisbane - Hunto vs Murrrr

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Mir was just interviewed by Dom and Kenny on UFC tonight. Physically I'm similar to Mir (though he's maybe an inch taller and has about 40 lbs on me LOL) in that when I'm not working out and eating right and gain weight it really shows up in my face. Same as Mir if you look back over his career. His face looked significantly skinnier that it has lately in that interview. I'm thinking the pics Card posted are legit and Mir is gonna come in lighter for this fight. I'm guessing under 255, possibly even under 250.

Waiting until the weigh in, but the over 1.5 is in my sights...
 
Mir was just interviewed by Dom and Kenny on UFC tonight. Physically I'm similar to Mir (though he's maybe an inch taller and has about 40 lbs on me LOL) in that when I'm not working out and eating right and gain weight it really shows up in my face. Same as Mir if you look back over his career. His face looked significantly skinnier that it has lately in that interview. I'm thinking the pics Card posted are legit and Mir is gonna come in lighter for this fight. I'm guessing under 255, possibly even under 250.

Waiting until the weigh in, but the over 1.5 is in my sights...
haha i'm the same way

If Hunt surpasses -200 i'm gonna hit Mir
 
Tailed some of you on Case just for action.

Im big on the Huna and player both Magny and Lombard as underdogs for the same amount.

Not super excited for this card but I hope we get some fun fights.
 
Interesting that both Kenny and Dom (and I have an unabashed man-crush on Dom as an analyst, I think he's the best there is) said Lombard has a "big advantage" on the ground. Am I missing something? Lombard is amazingly strong and has great Judo. He has solid top control too. But he doesn't do much damage inside the guard (due to inactivity a lot of the time), he's no threat to sub Magny, and his gas tank is suspect. Then throw in how well Magny handled Gastelum on the mat and I think Dom and Kenny are off.

I mean, it's not crazy to think Lombard has a slight advantage if he gets top position, I buy that. But a decided edge? Not to my eyes.
 
I have no confidence in any of my bets this weekend. I think this card I'll just end up playing the board on whatever pays well and expecting to lose at the same time. I think I'll wait til the next card to up my ante on guys like T. Ferg or Glover.

Mir/Hunt
I'm gonna play Frank Mir, not his ML +150 per say but Not Hunt ITD +127. I'm on Frank because I feel like he's got a bit more freedom to throw what he wants because there's no reason to fear falling to his back or getting pressed up and pummeled like guys such as Barnett/Lesnar/Carwin has done to him etc. I think Frank Mir opens up this bout with plenty of kicks to TRY and keep Hunt at a far as he can so he'll have to try extra hard to close the distance. It'll give Frank enough space IF he does establish some kicking so he'll have a quick enough reaction time to defend Mark Hunt's blitz.

Hunt doesn't want to be physical in this fight with Mir, so the range he'll WANT to fight in is one where he can leap into the pocket > exit, rinse/repeat. Don't get me wrong though, Hunt via KO is the likeliest thing I think will happen. And he's damn good at covering distance and delivering the finishing blow.

Mir really has to know he can't do anything about it because he probably has accepted he's not fast enough. So he's gotta create angles to where he can deter Mark from exploding on him by trying to keep Hunt as far as he can until Frank can find a opening to clinch with Hunt and kind of grind it out til he's less explosive as the fight progresses. It's a much smarter way to approach this fight. Maybe that's why Mir looks like he's slimmed down a bit, dude was gassed af in his last fight against Arlovski and he also came in looking fat against Duffee.

Big foot (first fight, TRT aside) had a really good game plan out the gate when he kept throwing FIRST with punches and kicks out of both stances, not to hurt Hunt but to keep Hunt from leaping in with his left hook until he can figure out a read that he could exploit. Frank Mir has shown in recent fights that he has been training in an orthodox stance. Frank is a natural southpaw too so that helps his cause if a bit if he's able to make the fight a bit longer by pawing out his right hand opposite of Mark's left and making Hunt utilize his right hand more. Of course, Hunt's speed, footwork, and experience will probably trump any tricks Frank's got in his back pocket but hey it helps to put it out there

Frank's key is that he needs to really focus on learning defensive tactics (think something along the lines of Benson Henderson who is a master at) and he needs to go ahead and dive for these leg locks that he talks about in interviews because he needs to make his presence known like Werdum did when he faked a sloppy TD into a flying knee after multiple failed attempts. Frank's no D1 wrestler he knows he'll probably get shucked off or uppercutted if he's banking on a TD the traditional way.

These are things that I think factor into this fight, it's not much of a breakdown or prediction that I have but I do think these things are on the table come fight night. I may be betting Mir, but it's based on principle that I'm simply picking the dog. I'm even planning on taking the fight goes the distance with a bare minimum bet at +600 and I don't feel bad about it at all, but it'll probably be better to take the o1.5 if that's my reasoning.

Magny/Lombard
*PEDs aside /meaning I'm gonna assume this is a classic Lombard that's showing up fight night*

I'll say this, I have 300$ on Magny but it's because I thought he had value at +125. I wanted to see if Lombard will get higher as a dog so I can freeroll but he dropped right back down to +110 which is where I'll probably pull the trigger on the hedge. In the back of my mind, I do feel like while Magny has that respective 9" and 6" reach and height advantage, he probably doesn't want to body lock with a guy like Lombard who is a tank. Magny's TDs have been more greco style and requires the upperbody, and that's Lombard's specialty(judo at least). Kelvin is more of a freestyle wrestler and reliant on scrambles. Kelvin if I recall correctly, didn't even wrestle at college either, so he focused more on BJJ once he made it to the UFC. Point being, different grappling styles.

The reach is there, but Lombard isn't gonna get picked at for 15 straight minutes. Magny isn't one to shy from a clinch fight so Lombard will have his opportunities. If Hector is SMART, he'll incorporate a top game if the chance presents itself and go ahead and do what he did against Shields which is lay on top of him and rest. Close call and it's on the Australian judge's call to get it right, going heavy on a fight likely to go the distance with guys who have a past history of having hard-to-judge fights is probably a bad call. 29-28 for either guy by split. This is why I don't expect to have a successful night this weekend.
 
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Rebel: I'm not going to tell you how to spend your money because it's none of my business. However, let me give you some advice if you consider flushing money down the toilet as an acceptable hobby.

I'm not in any way lecturing you so don't take what I say to heart mate. If you're going to burn money on parlays that 99.99999999999% aren't likely to hit, then why not donate it to charity instead? You're making the bookies rich with this reckless type of gambling and I genuinely feel bad because you don't truly understand that money could be better spent by taking a methodical and analytical approach to betting.

Hell, subscribe to my sports betting service and you'll actually come out with a profit. I just don't know what point betting a hopeless parlay has because it has no value. I have seen you around the betting threads for some time so you should know why parlays are considered "sucker bets".

- Barry
Barry, how much does your service cost? Are you better than Luca Fury?
 
@barrygood1

Also, do you train UFC? Sometimes when I read your posts I realize you so advanced that you probably train UFC.
 
Interesting that both Kenny and Dom (and I have an unabashed man-crush on Dom as an analyst, I think he's the best there is) said Lombard has a "big advantage" on the ground. Am I missing something? Lombard is amazingly strong and has great Judo. He has solid top control too. But he doesn't do much damage inside the guard (due to inactivity a lot of the time), he's no threat to sub Magny, and his gas tank is suspect. Then throw in how well Magny handled Gastelum on the mat and I think Dom and Kenny are off.

I mean, it's not crazy to think Lombard has a slight advantage if he gets top position, I buy that. But a decided edge? Not to my eyes.

Dominick selected Magny for his on-the-record official pick at the end of the show on UFC Tonight, and Mir to win the main event, fwiw.
 
Brazil translation:

Shoe guy wants to remember good times in Australia against Kelly
Brazilian lived for six months in the country and said he lived one of the best years of his life at the time. Against athlete of the house, you want to use jujitsu to come out with the victory

By Raphael MarinhoRio de Janeiro

FACEBOOK
TWITTER
caradesapato1.jpg

Athlete plays with a kangaroo in Australia (Photo: Personal Archive)

On Saturday, Antonio Carlos Shoe Face will be in Australia to meet the local athlete Daniel Kelly in " UFC: Hunt x Mir ". But it is misleading to believe that the Brazilian will be mere visitor at the time. The black belt in jiu-jitsu has lived in the country for six months in 2012 after overcoming a drama in his personal life, as just before he recovered from panic disorder. The period lived in Australian land was set by fighter as one of the best years of his life and the opportunity to return there to fight was received with joy by the athlete of the American Top Team (ATT).

- I have lived in Australia a while, is a place that I only have good memories, it was a wonderful time of my life. I intend to keep these good memories, so I want to go there and come out with this win to stay with this image of Australia. It's a long trip, but it was so good thing that happened in that country I'm crazy to go back there. When they told me he was going to fight there, I was very happy. I lived there in 2012. In total was about 6 months in Australia, I have great friends there, so, although no doubt that most of the fans will be for him, I know that I have great friends, so I have a twisted not as big as his, but of quality, heart, sending a lot of energy. I did many things there. I jumped with a parachute, gave several seminars, I made great friends, it was a very nice time in my life. It was right after I had recovered from panic attacks I had. I went through one of the worst years of my life, my worst time in 2011. In 2012 I went to Australia and had one of the best, if not the best year of my life. It was wonderful, everything perfect. Just remember good things there - said in an interview with Combate.com .

In his last fight, Shoe Face was only 11 seconds in action since accidentally hit Kevin Casey with a finger in the eye, and the US did not return to the fight, which ended in "No Contest". For the duel before Daniel Kelly, the Brazilian kept the same training as both are left-handed, but knows he must take care of the judo rival, who played in four Olympics representing Australia.

caradesapato2.jpg
Shoe man lived six months on Australian soil, where he made many friends (Photo: Personal Archive)

- I'm training here at ATT with the guys, doing a very similar training with the last fight. It is against a guy handed too, so I'm in the same sparring partners. The difference is that the other was jiu-jitsu and this is the judo Olympian four times by Australia, but the training is basically the same.The strong point of it is judo, falls. Not wrestling falls are hip drops it. It's an older guy, savvy, he was for four Olympics, has enough competition experience. I have to keep calm and do the job straight will be a key to my victory. Although he was more experienced, I think I have more weapons. The strong it is put down and down I feel quite comfortable. It will be difficult for him to get in hip drop. I will try to impose my game and work my jiu-jitsu - analyzed.

Confident of his performance, Shoe Face is considered a complete fighter now and warrants have evolved in areas considered his weaknesses: muay thai, and especially wrestling. To beat Kelly, he bet the most scale to use striking as a shortcut before taking the confrontation to the ground and be able to use jujitsu, which is their specialty.

- He knows I have a good ground game, do not know if will want to tear down and back up. In striking also I think take advantage, I'm bigger than him, have a good reach, so I'll try to use it, my ground game with striking, and I think that is where I find this key to victory. He is left-handed, change some things, but not so much. I want to show that I have trained hard, evolved and grew as an athlete. I learned in the areas that were deficient and can be a great name for this division. I had the background of jujitsu, was training a lot of boxing, but had a very big flaw kicks in, both in defense and in attack, and wrestling, which was my biggest failure. I needed to develop it. Here I found great athletes and teachers who helped me in this. In muay thai, I have trained a lot with Katel Kubis. I do wrestling with King Mo and Steve Mocco, who know a lot. This has left me more complete. I was jujitsu and boxing and now consider myself an MMA fighter, full, which can mix all the arts - completed.

Antonio Carlos Shoe Guy is 25 years old, was the champion of the third season of TUF Brazil, and has a record of five wins, one loss and a "No Contest." His rival, Dan Kelly, have 38, 10 wins and one loss in his MMA career.
 
Brazil translation:

Shoe guy wants to remember good times in Australia against Kelly
Brazilian lived for six months in the country and said he lived one of the best years of his life at the time. Against athlete of the house, you want to use jujitsu to come out with the victory

By Raphael MarinhoRio de Janeiro

FACEBOOK
TWITTER
caradesapato1.jpg

Athlete plays with a kangaroo in Australia (Photo: Personal Archive)

On Saturday, Antonio Carlos Shoe Face will be in Australia to meet the local athlete Daniel Kelly in " UFC: Hunt x Mir ". But it is misleading to believe that the Brazilian will be mere visitor at the time. The black belt in jiu-jitsu has lived in the country for six months in 2012 after overcoming a drama in his personal life, as just before he recovered from panic disorder. The period lived in Australian land was set by fighter as one of the best years of his life and the opportunity to return there to fight was received with joy by the athlete of the American Top Team (ATT).

- I have lived in Australia a while, is a place that I only have good memories, it was a wonderful time of my life. I intend to keep these good memories, so I want to go there and come out with this win to stay with this image of Australia. It's a long trip, but it was so good thing that happened in that country I'm crazy to go back there. When they told me he was going to fight there, I was very happy. I lived there in 2012. In total was about 6 months in Australia, I have great friends there, so, although no doubt that most of the fans will be for him, I know that I have great friends, so I have a twisted not as big as his, but of quality, heart, sending a lot of energy. I did many things there. I jumped with a parachute, gave several seminars, I made great friends, it was a very nice time in my life. It was right after I had recovered from panic attacks I had. I went through one of the worst years of my life, my worst time in 2011. In 2012 I went to Australia and had one of the best, if not the best year of my life. It was wonderful, everything perfect. Just remember good things there - said in an interview with Combate.com .

In his last fight, Shoe Face was only 11 seconds in action since accidentally hit Kevin Casey with a finger in the eye, and the US did not return to the fight, which ended in "No Contest". For the duel before Daniel Kelly, the Brazilian kept the same training as both are left-handed, but knows he must take care of the judo rival, who played in four Olympics representing Australia.

caradesapato2.jpg
Shoe man lived six months on Australian soil, where he made many friends (Photo: Personal Archive)

- I'm training here at ATT with the guys, doing a very similar training with the last fight. It is against a guy handed too, so I'm in the same sparring partners. The difference is that the other was jiu-jitsu and this is the judo Olympian four times by Australia, but the training is basically the same.The strong point of it is judo, falls. Not wrestling falls are hip drops it. It's an older guy, savvy, he was for four Olympics, has enough competition experience. I have to keep calm and do the job straight will be a key to my victory. Although he was more experienced, I think I have more weapons. The strong it is put down and down I feel quite comfortable. It will be difficult for him to get in hip drop. I will try to impose my game and work my jiu-jitsu - analyzed.

Confident of his performance, Shoe Face is considered a complete fighter now and warrants have evolved in areas considered his weaknesses: muay thai, and especially wrestling. To beat Kelly, he bet the most scale to use striking as a shortcut before taking the confrontation to the ground and be able to use jujitsu, which is their specialty.

- He knows I have a good ground game, do not know if will want to tear down and back up. In striking also I think take advantage, I'm bigger than him, have a good reach, so I'll try to use it, my ground game with striking, and I think that is where I find this key to victory. He is left-handed, change some things, but not so much. I want to show that I have trained hard, evolved and grew as an athlete. I learned in the areas that were deficient and can be a great name for this division. I had the background of jujitsu, was training a lot of boxing, but had a very big flaw kicks in, both in defense and in attack, and wrestling, which was my biggest failure. I needed to develop it. Here I found great athletes and teachers who helped me in this. In muay thai, I have trained a lot with Katel Kubis. I do wrestling with King Mo and Steve Mocco, who know a lot. This has left me more complete. I was jujitsu and boxing and now consider myself an MMA fighter, full, which can mix all the arts - completed.

Antonio Carlos Shoe Guy is 25 years old, was the champion of the third season of TUF Brazil, and has a record of five wins, one loss and a "No Contest." His rival, Dan Kelly, have 38, 10 wins and one loss in his MMA career.
lol "Shoe Face", "Shoe Man", and "Shoe Guy" in the same article
 
No one thinks Nakai will win?

well, initially i thought leslie will strike her way to a victory, now i'm not so sure.

think leslie's wild style of stiking is vastly superior to nakai's zero standup, however i can see leslie leaving openings and getting herself taken down during an exchange.

for me it's a no bet. i don't like to bet on women period because so much inexplicable shit happens in general. it's worse than heavyweights.
 
What are your thoughts Dan Kelly and Brendan O Riley? I got 20bucks a pop on them and other 10 on Bosse and Rin.

I think these under dogs will pull through for me
 
think bosse and rin could have a decent chance, other 2 will lose
 
Bosse is like that Danho guy in that last england card, he's just a big guy who wants to punch you in the clinch. That's how a night club bouncer would fight. At least Te Huna has martial arts experience and his last 3 losses were to former champions and people who have fought for the belt. Te Huna could probably put him on his back if he needed to.

O'reily is going to run into a knee or something big and I think there's a big chance he gets put out cold here. Jouban could probably get outwrestled by better fighters than O'reily but not here. 15 minutes I think is enough time for Jouban to find his chin when he dives forward with his chin for the taking.

Kelly will probably get tapped if not, then he'll probably get dominated. at least Kelly has some creds as a Judoka, but he's not winning this fight. He's got to replicate what Cummins did and I don't think his base is anywhere close to being as strong. And then he's always got his knee and foot wrapped up in every fight. RNC or leg attack finish by shoe guy.

Nakai out of the 4 probably has the best chance being that, in a fight between females, it's a crap shoot. 1 girl might be on her rag that week and not perform who knows.

The dogs I'm playing are Eddiva, Mir, Case formerly +105, and Magny formerly +125.
 
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^ Damien Brown cut a lot of weight for this fight on short notice. He didn't say how much. No idea how his usual cardio looks. He said he's good in every area of MMA, but not great in any single area.



^ Ross Pearson wants to entertain the fans in this fight since his last opponent fought in a way that didn't allow him to actually fight and entertain people. He said he wants to fight smarter, but when he gets hit, he goes into autopilot and gets reckless. Pearson did his camp in Australia for this fight, that way his team could focus solely on him.



^ Leslie Smith had knee surgery (meniscus) back in April 2015. She's been asking for fights for awhile, but was never given anything. The time adjustment in Australia hasn't messed with her at all.



^ Bec Rawlings pulled out of her fight against Joanne Calderwood on July 11, 2015, due to cracking the neck of her femur. After she had surgery on her leg, she was on crutches for 4-5 months. She said her doctor told her she injured herself due to being malnourished and over-training. She said fighting on March 20, 2016, has given her the right amount of time to heal up and get the strength back in her leg, etc.
 
PuertoRican, I watched Brown's second from last fight and he seemed pretty gassed at the end of round 1. He gutted through it and finished his opponent in round 2 but the quality of opposition was pretty poor.
 
Hedged out of my Magny action. Should have y'day as 365 had Lombard @ +125 which is what I bet Magny at, but had to take +115 @ Ladbrokes.

I'd been thinking about it but someone above made a very good point about KG being freestyle and Lombard judo, so Magny's clinch takdowns are likely to be unsuccessful. I also took his point about we are speculating about Lombard dropping off physically at this point. I do expect a drop off from Lombard due to no roids, but for pre-bet purposes I am expecting the best Lombard we have seen. Will be lb the shit out of this fight tho!
 
Really liking Te Huna SU hedged with Bosse KO as Ukram mentioned. Seems pretty close to fool proof.

Jouban + Shoeface + Te Huna @ evens. Hedged with Bosse KO @ +400. Think I'm hitting this.
 
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man. i finally gave "fighter and the kid" podcast a try.. there's sooooo much non-mma stuff, (i am sure some people like it, and yea, it's funny at times) -- and then the actual fight stuff? it's terrible! they don't know shit... they started talking about pearson-laprise.. they had NO clue about the fighter swaps that happened (opponent changes) and then schaub's like "so it's 145, right? cause it's pearson?"

...wtf. he hasn't been 145 since 11 fights ago. his last TEN fights have been 155+.. and no one corrects him...

the actual mma talk is worthless..

It's not an MMA talk show though, at all. These guys really aren't analysists at all, just talk because they are kind of commited to it, due to Schaub and the title etc.

Also, Callen is such a cuck
 
Ladbrokes still haven't put Alves' line back up since Tuesday when they messed up the line.
 
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