Not that knowledgeable on Alan Joubans opponent but I like the odds for Jouban at a near pick'em against a debuting fighter.
Reading the cliffs of that interview above is a bit of a confidence booster. Having to train through Ramadan, first time fighting during it and working a full time job on top of that against a solid striker who pushes a relentless pace? With the debuting, working a full time job and Ramadan there's 3 red flags before you take into account the opponent.
I agree with you, although stylistically its a very winnable fight for Belal. However, the 3 factors you mentioned may play a big role here.