UFC Fox 20: holm vs shevchenko - chicago

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Yea honestly (I'm from Sweden so one hour after the brits) if I can get to sleep before 7am and watch the whole card I'm happy. That said I don't really have any good livebetting accounts right now so I mostly go sleep at like 5am unless the main and co-main is really good.
 
I actually think Shevchenko has a significant striking advantage, but expect her to struggle with Holm's output and pace.

She has a tighter, more technical kicking game on the outside - Holm kicks a lot but she doesn't throw them particularly well. Her teeps are massively telegraphed and she almost always loses her balance and squares herself up when she throws it. Using them a lot against someone with Shevchneko's pedigree might get her countered a lot. Her side kick is good for keeping range, but she needs her opponents to back away from her hands for it to work consistently and Shevchenko is good at holding her ground and countering in the pocket.

I think Shevhchenko's a better boxer too, ironic as that is, at least in close. She has good footwork in the pocket and much better defense/counterpunching in the pocket than Holm. Holm isn't very good in the pocket and relies on her opponents either chasing after her and playing into her stick and move game, or backing away from her hands where she can punt them with kicks as they exit. Shevchenko has the footwork, defense, and composure to walk her down and deny her the opportunities to capitalize on, and counter her when she tries to charge into the pocket.

She also has a technically superior clinch game, but I'm not sure how well that will work for her with Holm's size advantage. Holm looked really good in the clinch against Miesha and Ronda as well.

Skill wise I'd favor Shevchenko. I think she has the tools to exploit a lot of Holm's weaknesses, but I think she'll struggle with Holm because she throws consistently high volume, while Shevchenko is pretty low-output and does a lot of waiting to counter. I think it'll be a close fight and wouldn't be surprised at a split decision. I think it could go either way, but imo the odds definitely warrant a bet on Shevchenko.
 
Is there no UFC 202 thread yet? Bovada only has the main event for this event up, but almost all announced fights for 202.
 
I honestly don't know why anyone would bet Holm at these odds. She has low output and has never impressed me except for the RR fight. She had a close fight with Pennington ffs! I will probably throw a unit on Shevchenko especially if I am well up come main event time. This is likely going 5 rounds and with Holm's low output style hell anything could happen, not to mention this is WMMA.
 
The MM Analyst said:
Skill wise I'd favor Shevchenko. I think she has the tools to exploit a lot of Holm's weaknesses, but I think she'll struggle with Holm because she throws consistently high volume, while Shevchenko is pretty low-output and does a lot of waiting to counter. I think it'll be a close fight and wouldn't be surprised at a split decision. I think it could go either way, but imo the odds definitely warrant a bet on Shevchenko.
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In MMA, Holly Holm isn't a high volume striker.

When it comes to significant strikes, she's a mid-level output striker at best.
 
I was debating between Holm dec and O4.5 but I choosed the O4.5 since betsafe had it at -133 which I thought was great. Decision is both fighters most likely method of victory and I cant trust a fighter with Holms style enough to just bet Holm dec so far. That low volume striker style is just asking to get robbed. I mean, one judge even scored the fight to Pennington when Holm was clearly winning. I think her footwork is good enough to avoid the clinch the majority of the time and will probably win 49/46 on my scorecards or something like that but her output is too low to make her wins obvious and Shevchenko will probably be the one moving forward which could have an impact on scoring as well.
 
Was on vacation for 2 weeks... but I'm back =) Missed 4 UFC events.
 
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I really want the rest of the fight odds thought. Researching some fights before they put them out.
 
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Dropped the damn lines i got some cash to unload - please have mercy on the odds!
 
Stunna77 said:
Is there no UFC 202 thread yet? Bovada only has the main event for this event up, but almost all announced fights for 202.
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when events are more than a month away i usually don't make 'em yet, just the the general / future lines discussion one in the meantime
 
Not HH ITD is -235 on 5d. I am trying to find something good to parlay that with.

This is a sick line on its own tho
 
LEMONZEST said:
Not HH ITD is -235 on 5d. I am trying to find something good to parlay that with.

This is a sick line on its own tho
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is it better than just O4.5 -170? or O4.0 -180?
 
PuertoRican said:
In MMA, Holly Holm isn't a high volume striker.

When it comes to significant strikes, she's a mid-level output striker at best.
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She doesn't land at a very high percentage, but she is a pretty high output striker. She threw 14 strikes per minute against Pennington and 12 per minute against Reneau. That's not super high for male MMA or even the 115 division, but in her division she probably has the highest output behind Kaufman and maybe Smith.
 
Idk why people are worried abou Holly's output, she stays pretty busy, her offense is more point based, she's also not gonna be worried about being taken down like she was in the Penny fight, Meisha fight, Ronda fight etc
 
Holm's strikes thrown can be jabs pawed out or kicks feeling out range. Rounds can be swayed pretty easily by heavy strikers who flurry, but I don't see Shevchenko doing it.
 
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