UFC 208 - Holm vs De Randamie - Brooklyn

[Jamah]

This will probably be a close scrappy fight. I have no idea why Makhachev is such a big favourite... I see this more as a pick'em fight so there is big value betting on Lentz! In a close fight I will always bet the 3 to 1 dog. If FC Everton wins today I'll probably throw $300 on Lentz. But I already have him in a parlay.

Makhachev is a high level grappler. Nik lentz has cardio issues and has had a tought weight cut.
Makhachev by DEC or Makhachev by r3 stoppage is the right call

 

[BigNick100]

My final picks

My betting record -

12-2-1 on underdog picks.
Overall = 44-21 for %67.7 Success

*UNDERDOG BET* -Nover- While I am not as confident as I was before, I am still on Nover. I think he wins this one by DEC.

Randy Brown - This is one I really like. This is my most confident pick. Belal is coming off a brutal KO just 3 months ago. So two things, either he is got back into the gym too soon which is never a good sign or a took a break and has recently started back training and etc. Brown has the reach and the height advantage as well, Belal is going to have to coming forward at all and I think he will get tagged going in quite a bit. Brown is also young, he is getting better every fight and and his last fight he showed a lot of improvement, and I look for him to show more improvement in this one.

Ryan Laflare - I think Ryan takes this one easily. He was able to survive Maia for 3 rounds, so I doubt he is worried about Roan ground game. He is the young, more hungry fighter and will tale this one by DEC.

Derek Brunson - I think he can take this fight by DEC. People forgot that Brunson was on a nice 4 fight winning streak before Whitaker, and his 2 losses before the Whitaker fights was against Yoel and Jacare, top contenders in the MW. Silva hasn't won a fight 2012, 5 years ago, 5! That's crazy when you think about it. I am worried about Brunson coming in and keeping that chin up against a counter fight like Silva, but if he uses his wrestling he can take this one by DEC. I can see a hedge with Silva ITD, but I wont even hedge, I like Brunson by DEC.

*UNDERDOG BET* I am on the fence with Glover/Canon. Going back and worth all week. But I have to say, I am on Canon. There is three guys in the past that Glover has faced that will be as fast with their hands as Canon is, Bader, OSP and Johnson. Now Johnson is a beast who knocks out everyone, but OSP rocked Glover with a body kick and also followed up with some punches. Glover was able to survive and use his ground game to sub OSP in the 3rd. Bader was also having success on his feet for with Glover, and rocking him twice before Bader got KTFO. Now Canon will have the speed for sure here, and with Glover coming off that KO, I see red flags all over. Glover also started his own gym, we all know how that goes most the time and he just got KO hard 6 months ago.I think Canon can use his speed and foot work to stay away from Glover, tag him and also mix it up with body kicks. I must say I am very worried about Glover taking him down and finishing him on the ground, that I will hedge with Glover ITD. But with all the red flags and Canon's speed, I think he can take his one.

Dustin Poirier -I think he is better then Miller everywhere, maybe even on the ground game. Miller is old and has more wear and tear, and fighting someone like Poirier at this point in his career isn't going to go well for him. I think he can overwhelm Miller on the feet and take this by DEC.

This is it for me, Holm/GDA I can't get a read on.

Good luck all.

 

[mkess101]

Expert cappers always do their own breakdowns/analysis. Relying on some random on a forum to do a breakdown for you is not what high level cappers do.

Umm if you aren't breaking it down at all yourself it has nothing to do with "expert" or "high level". If you aren't doing any of your own analysis you aren't "capping" at all. That's just called tailing. I know you like those phrases, all good. Just pointing this rather obvious fact out LOL.

 

[P4p Islam]

Makhachev is a high level grappler. Nik lentz has cardio issues and has had a tought weight cut.
Makhachev by DEC or Makhachev by r3 stoppage is the right call

Im on lentz. Lentz is tenfold more proven. Makhachev hasn't fought a top 20 opponent in his career, nor has he done anything that leads me to believe he can outwork lentz.

Lentz breaks guys, and you can see the moment it happens in his fights. Not to mention his losses are to legit competition. I think the line for this fight is so skewed because people are mostly focusing on the negatives on lentz. I'll say it again. Makhachev is largely unproven against legit competition.

Imo lentz +165 ML would make more sense. Lentz +255 ML is an auto pick.

 

[Jamah]

Im on lentz. Lentz is tenfold more proven. Makhachev hasn't fought a top 20 opponent in his career, nor has he done anything that leads me to believe he can outwork lentz.

Lentz breaks guys, and you can see the moment it happens in his fights. Not to mention his losses are to legit competition. I think the line for this fight is so skewed because people are mostly focusing on the negatives on lentz. I'll say it again. Makhachev is largely unproven against legit competition.

Imo lentz +165 ML would make more sense. Lentz +255 ML is an auto pick.

He has cardio problems, he has bad takedown defense , he has had a bad weight cut, his camp has been bad because of his newborn.

I just dont know how Lentz can win the fight, he will fade hard in the later rounds and get massively outgrappled

 

[P4p Islam]

He has cardio problems, he has bad takedown defense , he has had a bad weight cut, his camp has been bad because of his newborn.

I just dont know how Lentz can win the fight, he will fade hard in the later rounds and get massively outgrappled

Fake news!!!

Just kidding. I see your point and respect it. That's just my view of this fight.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Finally, we agree!!!!

What is your number 1 expert pick for this card?

 

[HeDucking]

What is your number 1 expert pick for this card?

Glover at -150 was the best bet imo. Explained it already. Now we even know he has a sizeable physical edge too. I capped him at -290.

But Im no expert capper. I dont claim to be.

 

[Wardoom]

Still on my boy Randy Brown. Keep betting on mediocrity you wannabe high rollers.

You guys don't know shit! <45>

 

[Joseph Budden]

Gee Willikers!!! This is getting out of hand!!! @HeDucking you seem like a great guy who i'd play video games with and go out for a burrito, but you can't keep insulting everyone! These are great guys, lets try to be helpful not hurtful!!!

#MatureBudden

Still on my boy Randy Brown. Keep betting on mediocrity you wannabe high rollers.

You guys don't know shit! <45>

Dont be a follower! Refrain from joining in on the tom foolery, and show a little class!!

#MatureBudden

 

[BigNick100]

So much low level capping here oof

Actually it would be offensive to low level cappers. Little to no research done. I dont even need to explain most of these

Wtf is your probabaly bro. Your a joke, just like MMA gambling expert. You want to go and say I don't do any breakdown, yet there is many times the shit that comes out of your mouth I can tell don't or watch past fights. "Canon was getting murked his last fight but yet then you change it to her was getting murked in the 1st" that was your , get out of here with your shit. My success record and underdog picks speak for itself, yet your saying little to no research done and saying a shit of shit. It's posters like you and MMA experts that made sherdog a shit place these days. You and him spend your whole day here and fill the threads your posts.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Wtf is your probabaly bro. Your a joke, just like MMA gambling expert. You want to go and say I don't do any breakdown, yet there is many times the shit that comes out of your mouth I can tell don't or watch past fights. "Canon was getting murked his last fight but yet then you change it to her was getting murked in the 1st" that was your , get out of here with your shit. My success record and underdog picks speak for itself, yet your saying little to no research done and saying a shit of shit. It's posters like you and MMA experts that made sherdog a shit place these days. You and him spend your whole day here and fill the threads your posts.

Relax bro, your breakdowns were very low level and HeDucking was just being honest

 

[HeDucking]

Wtf is your probabaly bro. Your a joke, just like MMA gambling expert. You want to go and say I don't do any breakdown, yet there is many times the shit that comes out of your mouth I can tell don't or watch past fights. "Canon was getting murked his last fight but yet then you change it to her was getting murked in the 1st" that was your , get out of here with your shit. My success record and underdog picks speak for itself, yet your saying little to no research done and saying a shit of shit. It's posters like you and MMA experts that made sherdog a shit place these days. You and him spend your whole day here and fill the threads your posts.

Go read back on my comments. I didnt even change it once, Jared was lucky Ion gassed in middle of the second. Keep coming up with fake BS dude.

Also read what I replied to you BD with and check the underlines. Youre gonna laugh at yourself.


Dont worry though, Ill @ you when Glover murks you low level guy. Lol at being ranked 15 just to say he's ranked.

 

[Wardoom]

What is this oxymoron?

You mention on us betting on mediocrity, yet you bet Randy Brown

Keep tailing the shit picks from your sherbros. Shee you shoon boy.

 

[BigNick100]

Relax bro, your breakdowns were very low level and HeDucking was just being honest

guess what, I don't get a shit what your and Ducking says. My record speaks for itself. Post your win lose record, let's see it! Sick of these types of posters, I like how confident you were on Hill last time, claiming every should follow your pick on Hill, if everyone did everyone would have lost money. stop your shit!

 

[HeDucking]

Keep tailing your shit picks from your sherbros. Shee you shoon boy.

I tailed? Where? Go to the post your bets section, I was second only to the guy who posted the thread.

 

[BigNick100]

Im mature everywhere else, I find it fun triggering guys who think they're experts here. Some of these users are saying some utter shite.

Ill be back later, just to show your ass you aren't the best thing since slice bread. Post your final predictions and we will compare who has the better record.

 

[BigNick100]

Your record could be made up, where your tracker?

Good look at all my post history bro, it's all there. Do you need me to post and copy some of my previous breakdowns for you here? I will go back and post previous breakdowns so you can see, die hard fan since 2006, havent missed a UFC since then. I also train MMA. your barking up the wrong tree here if you think I don't know shit.

 

[HeDucking]

Good look at all my post history bro, it's all there. Do you need me to post and copy some of my previous breakdowns for you here? I will go back and post previous breakdowns so you can see, die hard fan since 2006, havent missed a UFC since then. I also train MMA. your barking up the wrong tree here if you think I don't know shit.

I trane UFC too. Ive been a professional bettor since 2017. Watching MMA since UFC 189. Been a huge fan of Conor since he's inception.

 

[wack3d]

kindergarten is back =/