UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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He took a hard illegal knee, was half unconscious for like a solid 3 minutes in his corner, And still fairly dominated the rest of the fight.
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i dont know about steal but he is the right side at these odds imo he is one of the most experienced guys on the roster and fought way better opponents he will also have big height and 4 inch reach advantage here
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Idk about Alcantara...Sanders seems legit as well.
About Wonderboy-Woodley. From my point of view, the big question is - What can WB bring to the table in this match?
Woodley can change some things that will surely favor his game style. He could close the distance more, go for more takedowns, counter-attack more. These things won him 2 rounds easily in their first fight. If it was by the new rules (which we still don't know if they apply on Saturday), he should've won those rounds 10-8.
On the other hand, WB does not have anything new for Woodley. He had his game, he played his game, that was not enough. Strength? Come on, Woodley is a freak and WB won't ever be able to match Tyron's strength.
If Woodley plays this one right, he should have a big advantage here.
About Wonderboy-Woodley. From my point of view, the big question is - What can WB bring to the table in this match?
Woodley can change some things that will surely favor his game style. He could close the distance more, go for more takedowns, counter-attack more. These things won him 2 rounds easily in their first fight. If it was by the new rules (which we still don't know if they apply on Saturday), he should've won those rounds 10-8.
On the other hand, WB does not have anything new for Woodley. He had his game, he played his game, that was not enough. Strength? Come on, Woodley is a freak and WB won't ever be able to match Tyron's strength.
If Woodley plays this one right, he should have a big advantage here.
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Woodley will not counter attack more IMO. He is passive as fuck every fight. He will back up and spend the whole fight on the fence again gliding along it. Woodley never uses his td's there's no way i can bet on him hoping he uses his wrestling he just doesn't use it. WB was backing him up all fight and he still never shot. R1 was not a 10-8 IMO even under the new scoring criteria. If you are betting Wood IMO you are betting on him landing his right hand and i think he will have to stop WB i don't think he wins a decision. If Wood whiffed on that right hand in r4 like he did the rest of the fight it would have been a clear 49-46 for WB. And on the strength issue WB seemed ok when they clinched up which i believe was only on one occasion. He reversed Woodley against the fence and then broke away.
If I was playing Wood i'd play his KO line. I must say tho i am not too keen on Wonderboy at his current price. I might hit his dec line.
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Unibet too.
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He was losing the 2nd prior to the knee and not much happened after the knee. Rd 3 was then split among judges and play by plays as well. This is against Skelly, a guy who typically fades HARD. Elkins predictably took advantage of that with Skelly and actually did dominate. I think this fight will probably have a lot of scrambles and Elkins has a very good chance at stealing rounds.
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Skelly didnt gas against Bektic.
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Feels really good. I like it a lot.
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http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-209-betting-odds/
I’d say this would have been a laughable booking at any other time in these fighters’ UFC careers, but Dan Kelly has only been in the UFC since 2014, and Rashad Evans has not won a fight since then, only competing twice over that period of time. Seeing Evans not medically cleared to fight in New York or Toronto just a couple of months ago has to give you significant pause if you’re thinking of backing him here. For me however, that thought never crossed my mind. Kelly has been one of the most profitable fighters to bet on in the UFC over the past few years, and this could be another opportunity for him to do so. Skill-wise, Kelly is outmatched, but that’s nothing new for him, and there are so many red flags surrounding Evans these days. An unclear training situation with the breakup of the Blackzillians, an unclear health situation, all of the known injuries he’s suffered, nearly a year layoff, age (and the fact that it’s showing far more with him than with the older Kelly), the fact that he hasn’t scored more than one takedown in a fight in over five years and remains woefully inactive on the feet. All of those things might add up to me taking a shot on Dan Kelly to see if the old man can do it one more time.
It’s hard to criticize Lando Vannata too much for his run in the UFC thus far, but very early on in the Makdessi fight nearly everything Makdessi threw, landed. Obviously that all got erased less than two minutes into the fight. What’s going to happen against a very decorated and talented striker in Teymur, who can have success with many of the same fundamental techniques? If Vannata doesn’t land the big shot will he get broken down as Teymur’s other opponents have, or can he find another way in this fight? Will Vannata just land something huge again and none of this will matter? That’s a real possibility as well. Still, I think the hype on Vannata might be a bit too much for where he’s at right now, and if this is the parlay piece on the card everyone uses, the line could get to a point where a shot on Teymur could certainly be warranted.
The most telling thing on Daniel Spitz’ resume is that he fought ‘Cabbage’ Correira… in 2016. Something tells me that dude should not still be getting fights. Despite that, ‘Cabbage’ has been the only fighter thus far to go to decision with Spitz (or even make it out of the first round), and it was good to see Spitz prove himself as more than just a heavyweight who finishes everyone early or gasses. He’s 6’7 and uses his length decently on the outside with kicks and straight punches, and also gets into the clinch and does good work while there and on his exit. That should all serve him well against Godbeer, who got mauled in the clinch by Cheick Kongo and clipped by Justin Ledet at range before being submitted. Spitz also seems to be decent on the ground, although I haven’t seen as much grappling from him against solid competition to really make that determination. Regardless, I think he can score at range, work Godbeer over in the clinch, and likely has an advantage on the ground in this one, so I think he picks up the win in his UFC debut.
One of the new patron saints of #FGF is back, as Luis Henrique takes on Marcin Tybura. Henrique has the perfect #FGF combination of durability and a grinding grappling skillset that seemingly leads to his fights going over their total regardless of if he wins or loses. Tybura is yet to be taken down in the UFC, so I can see this one stalling out in the clinch a bit early, and then coming down to who has more left in the tank. Tybura still looked good late against Timmy Johnson, and he is the more skilled striker in this matchup, so I could see him outscoring Henrique on the feet late if he can keep it there. It’s a tough fight to call for a side, but I do think it goes over, even if the price isn’t ideal.
This is why guys like Darren Elkins are in the UFC. Provide a stiff test to the up-and-coming prospects, but ultimately lose because the athleticism simply isn’t there. Bektic will be worlds faster than Elkins on the feet, and stronger in the grappling exchanges. It will probably get more competitive as it goes, since that will close the gap between the two physically, but I just don’t see that being enough for Elkins to squeak out with a win.
Luke Sanders and Iuri Alcantara is an excellent fight, but I think it will mark the end of the 36-year-old Alcantara’s days as a top 15 bantamweight. The big difference here will be pace and volume. Alcantara is as dangerous as anyone at bantamweight on a strike-by-strike basis, but when Sanders is outthrowing him 5-to-1, I don’t think that’s going to matter. An historically durable fighter, I could even see this being the first time in his career Alcantara gets stopped by strikes. Once you hit that mid-30’s mark in these lighter divisions, the fall is swift.
This could be where Paul Craig willing to accept being on the bottom could come back to haunt him. Tyson Pedro is a solid grappler in his own right, and I still don’t think we’re at a stage in MMA judging where you’re going to win many rounds from your back, even if Craig is throwing up all sorts of submissions. That said, Pedro has never been deep in a fight, and this is his first fight outside of Australia, so fatigue may become a factor, and we saw how keen Craig was to put Frank Waisten away once he showed signs of fatigue.
Albert Morales wants to strike. New addition to the bantamweight division, Andre Soukhamthath wants to strike. This could very quickly turn into a fun one, but I give Soukhamthath the slight edge on the feet, so have to favor him to win even though Morales has the UFC experience on him.
Cynthia Calvillo was pretty impressive in her last appearance on LFA, and I think her style really suits her well against Amanda Cooper. Cooper struggled with the wrestling of Tatiana Suarez (who is a better wrestler than Calvillo, mind you), but I think more than anything she doesn’t react particularly well when her opponent is dictating the fight. Against Anna Elmose, she looked alright when Elmose was doing nothing, but seemed unsure on the rare occasions where she was being pressured.
I’d say this would have been a laughable booking at any other time in these fighters’ UFC careers, but Dan Kelly has only been in the UFC since 2014, and Rashad Evans has not won a fight since then, only competing twice over that period of time. Seeing Evans not medically cleared to fight in New York or Toronto just a couple of months ago has to give you significant pause if you’re thinking of backing him here. For me however, that thought never crossed my mind. Kelly has been one of the most profitable fighters to bet on in the UFC over the past few years, and this could be another opportunity for him to do so. Skill-wise, Kelly is outmatched, but that’s nothing new for him, and there are so many red flags surrounding Evans these days. An unclear training situation with the breakup of the Blackzillians, an unclear health situation, all of the known injuries he’s suffered, nearly a year layoff, age (and the fact that it’s showing far more with him than with the older Kelly), the fact that he hasn’t scored more than one takedown in a fight in over five years and remains woefully inactive on the feet. All of those things might add up to me taking a shot on Dan Kelly to see if the old man can do it one more time.
It’s hard to criticize Lando Vannata too much for his run in the UFC thus far, but very early on in the Makdessi fight nearly everything Makdessi threw, landed. Obviously that all got erased less than two minutes into the fight. What’s going to happen against a very decorated and talented striker in Teymur, who can have success with many of the same fundamental techniques? If Vannata doesn’t land the big shot will he get broken down as Teymur’s other opponents have, or can he find another way in this fight? Will Vannata just land something huge again and none of this will matter? That’s a real possibility as well. Still, I think the hype on Vannata might be a bit too much for where he’s at right now, and if this is the parlay piece on the card everyone uses, the line could get to a point where a shot on Teymur could certainly be warranted.
The most telling thing on Daniel Spitz’ resume is that he fought ‘Cabbage’ Correira… in 2016. Something tells me that dude should not still be getting fights. Despite that, ‘Cabbage’ has been the only fighter thus far to go to decision with Spitz (or even make it out of the first round), and it was good to see Spitz prove himself as more than just a heavyweight who finishes everyone early or gasses. He’s 6’7 and uses his length decently on the outside with kicks and straight punches, and also gets into the clinch and does good work while there and on his exit. That should all serve him well against Godbeer, who got mauled in the clinch by Cheick Kongo and clipped by Justin Ledet at range before being submitted. Spitz also seems to be decent on the ground, although I haven’t seen as much grappling from him against solid competition to really make that determination. Regardless, I think he can score at range, work Godbeer over in the clinch, and likely has an advantage on the ground in this one, so I think he picks up the win in his UFC debut.
One of the new patron saints of #FGF is back, as Luis Henrique takes on Marcin Tybura. Henrique has the perfect #FGF combination of durability and a grinding grappling skillset that seemingly leads to his fights going over their total regardless of if he wins or loses. Tybura is yet to be taken down in the UFC, so I can see this one stalling out in the clinch a bit early, and then coming down to who has more left in the tank. Tybura still looked good late against Timmy Johnson, and he is the more skilled striker in this matchup, so I could see him outscoring Henrique on the feet late if he can keep it there. It’s a tough fight to call for a side, but I do think it goes over, even if the price isn’t ideal.
This is why guys like Darren Elkins are in the UFC. Provide a stiff test to the up-and-coming prospects, but ultimately lose because the athleticism simply isn’t there. Bektic will be worlds faster than Elkins on the feet, and stronger in the grappling exchanges. It will probably get more competitive as it goes, since that will close the gap between the two physically, but I just don’t see that being enough for Elkins to squeak out with a win.
Luke Sanders and Iuri Alcantara is an excellent fight, but I think it will mark the end of the 36-year-old Alcantara’s days as a top 15 bantamweight. The big difference here will be pace and volume. Alcantara is as dangerous as anyone at bantamweight on a strike-by-strike basis, but when Sanders is outthrowing him 5-to-1, I don’t think that’s going to matter. An historically durable fighter, I could even see this being the first time in his career Alcantara gets stopped by strikes. Once you hit that mid-30’s mark in these lighter divisions, the fall is swift.
This could be where Paul Craig willing to accept being on the bottom could come back to haunt him. Tyson Pedro is a solid grappler in his own right, and I still don’t think we’re at a stage in MMA judging where you’re going to win many rounds from your back, even if Craig is throwing up all sorts of submissions. That said, Pedro has never been deep in a fight, and this is his first fight outside of Australia, so fatigue may become a factor, and we saw how keen Craig was to put Frank Waisten away once he showed signs of fatigue.
Albert Morales wants to strike. New addition to the bantamweight division, Andre Soukhamthath wants to strike. This could very quickly turn into a fun one, but I give Soukhamthath the slight edge on the feet, so have to favor him to win even though Morales has the UFC experience on him.
Cynthia Calvillo was pretty impressive in her last appearance on LFA, and I think her style really suits her well against Amanda Cooper. Cooper struggled with the wrestling of Tatiana Suarez (who is a better wrestler than Calvillo, mind you), but I think more than anything she doesn’t react particularly well when her opponent is dictating the fight. Against Anna Elmose, she looked alright when Elmose was doing nothing, but seemed unsure on the rare occasions where she was being pressured.
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Man I love you but what the fuck are you seeing in Spitz?He looks like HW version of brian camozzi.Terrible cardio. Slow as fuck even in HW standards. Can crusher etc. I think even colombo would beat him.
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I'm just saying, there were some important side factors affecting that fight. Its unfair to label it like "........But he went to split with Skelly"
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That's the point. Skelly has literally gassed and faded in every other UFC fight that I've seen that goes late. Elkins pushed a pace that made him gas hard after the first round. Elkins is a spoiler type fighter. If Bektic would look to sprawl and brawl throughout he would have an easy time, but he just can't help but grapple.
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He took an illegal knee in that fight, def rocked him bad and affected the outcome of that fight
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In other food related news, Khabib eats a piece of tiramisu BEFORE dinner on the UFC Countdown show. Confidence increase Tony.
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I'm with you 100%. Are there things Woodley could do differently, sure. But I can't count on him doing them. He's 34 years old, he is who he is at this point until proven otherwise IMO.
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