UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II

[Tebowned]

It doesn't matter if the leg kick is there, the damage was already done. My point was Poirier wanted to fight in July not may and he may have not been able to put his all into his training camp. He may not have been able to get proper roadwork in. I already did go semi big on Alvarez. He won my bet vs rda, let's see him get back on track and win this one too. Also, Alvarez leg kick is just fine.

I'm on Alvarez but playing devil's advocate here.

Dustin is a south paw and Jim Miller is a southpaw. Outside leg kicks are easier that way.
Alvarez is an Orthodox fighter who mainly uses his hands.


EDIT also an FYI:

Hick Diaz has an AMA on r/mma at 1pm ET if anyone wants to ask him some questions to possibly help them cap.

 

[DarkneT]

Who do you guys consider the safest bets on the card? Without bias,
My book is showing James Vick as the biggest favourite currently
It's weird for me to have so many close fights odds wise going off recent cards,

 

[DarkneT]

I was pretty blazed but didn't Miller come on quite strong at the end? If not, ill rescind my previous.

Dustins leg pretty much gave in in the 3rd your right

 

[Sham5916910]

I was pretty blazed but didn't Miller come on quite strong at the end? If not, ill rescind my previous.

Yeah when DP's leg was fucked. I thought it was a lot closer than it was cos i had a shitload of money on DP. But i rewatched it yesterday and it was a clear DP win.

 

[Sham5916910]

Hi all!

I'v been lurking around for a while and found some valuable information here.Keep it up guys. Really appreciate guys like King_Brown, mkess, Goodfella, Gambling Expert and Josef Budden. Their knowledge is high level.

Welcome back

 

[Sham5916910]

def worth a stab. just waiting for best price. wouldn't consider betting Antigulov for one second at that price

I'm hoping for +400. I'm sure Ant is going to get parlayed up. I might hedge with Ant r1 tho.

 

[Jamah]

Hi all!

I'v been lurking around for a while and found some valuable information here.Keep it up guys. Really appreciate guys like King_Brown, mkess, Goodfella, Gambling Expert and Josef Budden. Their knowledge is high level.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

I'm hoping for +400. I'm sure Ant is going to get parlayed up. I might hedge with Ant r1 tho.

i feel his power and ko chance is getting over rated. its def an ok weapon but hes not rumble. 2 weeks since i watched all the tape but a lot opposition was poor from what i remember . one recent guy has had a fight at welterweight since his 205 fight with antigulov. he ends up on bottom plenty and when hes on top hes not that dangerous and can get reversed or joachim will be able to get back up. im v happy with the current price but gonna be greedy as looks like could get more

 

[MMAJay]

What makes you think knight has better wrestling/grappling than skelly?

I haven't mentioned that Knight has better wrestling than Skelly. I meant that Skelly's level of wrestling can be compared to Knights level of grappling. Knight has better grappling though. He's a brown belt, that transitioned into a full MMA fighter, where Skelly is a collegiate wrestler that has evolved some good and smooth grappling from there. Skelly will be a step ahead in the wrestling area whereas Knight will be the faster grappling scrambler. His grappling transitions are really smooth and quick, and he combine this with an very active striking output at the ground as well.

As you have mentioned, Knight has a tendency to fight off his back, but he's already aware of this being a disadvantage for him, and if you take a look at his UFC debut against Kawajiri and then look at his recent fights, he has evolved his overall game that gives him more weapons to use and combine throughout his fights. He relies on his chin though, which is something that don't look good in the eyes of the judges. He is willing to take a punch to give a punch. I do hope that he has focused more on refining his striking for this fight to look better standing.

 

[t6p]

Anyone else semi big on Yair? I feel lonely

yeah i threw down £200 at +150, which isn't that big for me but i'm going for a pretty wide net rather than sniping this event. it's still my biggest single bet of the night as i don't have a confident parlay.

I think he's one of the safer plays on the card
Fuck me right?

I'm so torn on this fight. I feel like a few years ago Frankie would have been a no brainer at these odds but at some point all the damage he's taken is going to catch up to him, especially at his age. He was rocked pretty badly by Stephens in the third round, but his chin held up. At the same time I really haven't been all that impressed with Yair, although I do think he has a ton of potential. I don't really like to bet on potential though.

Yair is extremely reckless and I'm concerned that if Frankie gets his wrestling going, he's going to be in for a long night. What are you guys seeing that's making you so confident in him?

 

[lawmills2006]

Yeah when DP's leg was fucked. I thought it was a lot closer than it was cos i had a shitload of money on DP. But i rewatched it yesterday and it was a clear DP win.

Yeah, actually think I may have considered it closer than it was due to his leg buckling. Quite on the fence on this one, may hold off and see how the odds swing, or even LB it.

 

[King_Brown]

Who do you guys consider the safest bets on the card? Without bias,
My book is showing James Vick as the biggest favourite currently
It's weird for me to have so many close fights odds wise going off recent cards,

Sherman
Benitez
Cejudo

 

[timmyclax22]

The odds right now on the Edgar/Yair fight are essentially the same as Edgar/Aldo 10 months ago - I believe It was something like -120/+110 mostly.

Are we to believe that Yair is just as good as Aldo or that Frankie has gotten that much older in 10 months?

I could write a lot more on this but I'm just going to say that I'll be on Frankie and if Yair wins then I will consider him a legit contender.

Did Luca take Yair anyone know?

 

[Jamah]

The odds right now on the Edgar/Yair fight are essentially the same as Edgar/Aldo 10 months ago - I believe It was something like -120/+110 mostly.

Are we to believe that Yair is just as good as Aldo or that Frankie has gotten that much older in 10 months?

I could write a lot more on this but I'm just going to say that I'll be on Frankie and if Yair wins then I will consider him a legit contender.

Did Luca take Yair anyone know?

He didn't , his picks are JDS , Masvidal and probably Yair too.

Edit: No props or totals this week

 

[timmyclax22]

He didn't , his picks are JDS , Masvidal and a O/U or ITD

Thank you.

 

[Jamah]

Sherman
Benitez
Cejudo

Sherman and Coulter are can beaters.
Are you fading Coulter or do you favour Sherman?
It might be another "Godbeer case", so I will trust you in this one.

 

[rille31]

The odds right now on the Edgar/Yair fight are essentially the same as Edgar/Aldo 10 months ago - I believe It was something like -120/+110 mostly.

Are we to believe that Yair is just as good as Aldo or that Frankie has gotten that much older in 10 months?

I could write a lot more on this but I'm just going to say that I'll be on Frankie and if Yair wins then I will consider him a legit contender.

Did Luca take Yair anyone know?

To be fair those odds where off

Aldo looked like a -300 favourite if not steeper

 

[King_Brown]

Sherman and Coulter are can beaters.
Are you fading Coulter or do you favour Sherman?
It might be another "Godbeer case", so I will trust you in this one.

There is nothing to fade in regards of CULTER. he is just not good. sloppy fat hw with no ground game coming in on short notice. i think sherman fucks him up pretty quickly

 

[Sham5916910]

i feel his power and ko chance is getting over rated. its def an ok weapon but hes not rumble. 2 weeks since i watched all the tape but a lot opposition was poor from what i remember . one recent guy has had a fight at welterweight since his 205 fight with antigulov. he ends up on bottom plenty and when hes on top hes not that dangerous and can get reversed or joachim will be able to get back up. im v happy with the current price but gonna be greedy as looks like could get more

Agreed. If he doesn't land that nuclear missile in the first few mins he will slow and it becomes much less likely he lands it, not to mention Joachim has never been KO'd. Ant was taking these guys down and instant mounting them, i don't think he's ground game is that elite, i think poor ground technicians were making him look better on the mat than he is. I think Ant probably gets it done, but +325 i know who im playing (albeit im holding out for +400). Joachim is the sternest test of Ant's career.

 

[Sham5916910]

Yeah, actually think I may have considered it closer than it was due to his leg buckling. Quite on the fence on this one, may hold off and see how the odds swing, or even LB it.

I think volume is going to be key in this fight. Alvarez is pretty low volume, DP throws at a very high clip.