UFN 110 - Lewis vs Hunt - New Zealand

[BigNick100]

A few early reads for me after tape study :

Hunt
Brunson
Cutelaba
Steetle
Ottow
Ashkan
Kim

 

[quincy k]

Far less chance here mate, they are HWs, both have less than amazing gas and its a 5 rounder. I would guess maybe 1 in 50 chance it goes to points.

i was referring to the belfort/marquadt fight

 

[BatBoyJG]

okay...youre probably one of those guys that gamble and dont use compubox or fight metrics

good luck with that

i always get a kick out of the people that say stats are worthless

Stats in mma are pretty worthless. Not entirely worthless, but close. Using stats as a main way of seeing what someone's striking defense or takedown defense is is not good.

 

[Ukram]

Ashkan Mokhtarian (fighting John moraga)
13-1, 31 years old (6kos and 6subs)
Mokhtarian began training in BJJ and later in kick boxing. His MMA career took off by winning his first four fights by submission and won Australia Eternal Bantamweight Title on April 2016 with a 12-1 record.

Some older fights





other videos on his training routine, gym he founded (Australian top team)

Spoiler

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9wpqp8lf-g

Says he likes to strike 'maybe' not seen much of it from the above videos, lots of fakes and jabs and setting up his take downs (some good timed entries shown) and relies on his gnp and top control, trained bjj and striking(MT). Poor quality opponents overall.

 

[Ukram]

Luke Jumeau (Fighting Dominique Steele)
11-3, 29 years old (5kos, 4subs)
-6 fight win streak
-had donations to get his medical bills sorted to fight in ufc
-passed usada test recently
-Full time job as panel beater, wife and 2 kids to support
-trains Core mma gym 4-5 times per week.


Last fight against ex-ufcs Vic

(Last few fights)





Luke more of a striker, has some nice counter boxing and good kicks but did struggle
with grapplers and his take down defence was lacking against solid wrestlers.

 

[Ukram]

damien brown (Fighting Vinc Pichel)
32 years old, 17-9 (3kos,8subs)
-striker and wrestler style fighter
-Suggest Vincs long lay off expects him to come out aggressive early and
to look for a finish.(last Vinc pinchel fight back in 2014)

Last 3 fights:
https://www.ufc.tv/video/damien-brown-vs-cesar-arzamendia-ufc-201-lawler-vs-woodley
https://www.ufc.tv/video/damien-brown-vs-jon-tuck-ufc-fight-night-whittaker-vs-brunson
https://www.ufc.tv/video/hunt-vs-mir-fight-pass-prelims?bout=0

Brown- good well rounded fighter, prefers to strike, throws much of his power into
his strikes, good recovery but has been knocked down in his fights. Been taken down
in his fights but shown some ability to scramble back to his feet at times and lately shown
his own offensive wrestling.


Vinc Pichel (Fighting damien brown above)
9-1 record(7kos) 34 years old.

Been out of action since May 2014, (3 years+) due to extended hiatus (according to wiki)
Last 3 ufc fights
https://www.ufc.tv/video/rustam-khabilov-vs-vinc-pichel-tuf-16-finale (pre usuda rustam suplex ko)
https://www.ufc.tv/video/vinc-pichel-vs-garett-whiteley-ufc-fight-night-atlanta
https://www.ufc.tv/video/vinc-pichel-vs-anthony-njokuani-ufc-173
if above link dont work (did not for myself) try here:
http://alwaysmma.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/vinc-pichel-vs-anthony-njokuani-ufc-173.html

Good all rounder, more emphasis on wrestling, grinds opponents against cage while working and likes to secure top control and gnp lately. Shown good cardio for 3 rounds also.

 

[BigNick100]

Ashkan Mokhtarian (fighting John moraga)
13-1, 31 years old (6kos and 6subs)
Mokhtarian began training in BJJ and later in kick boxing. His MMA career took off by winning his first four fights by submission and won Australia Eternal Bantamweight Title on April 2016 with a 12-1 record.

Some older fights





other videos on his training routine, gym he founded (Australian top team)

Spoiler

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9wpqp8lf-g

Says he likes to strike 'maybe' not seen much of it from the above videos, lots of fakes and jabs and setting up his take downs (some good timed entries shown) and relies on his gnp and top control, trained bjj and striking(MT). Poor quality opponents overall.

I kinda like what I see from Ashkan, depending on the odds I may hit him.

 

[BigNick100]

Luke Jumeau (Fighting Dominique Steele)
11-3, 29 years old (5kos, 4subs)
-6 fight win streak
-had donations to get his medical bills sorted to fight in ufc
-passed usada test recently
-Full time job as panel beater, wife and 2 kids to support
-trains Core mma gym 4-5 times per week.


Last fight against ex-ufcs Vic

(Last few fights)





Luke more of a striker, has some nice counter boxing and good kicks but did struggle
with grapplers and his take down defence was lacking against solid wrestlers.

I also did tape on Luke and his striking is average, he doesn't really look great in any area and his TDD was pretty bad, he even gave up his back and almost got choked out in his last fight. I think Steele will be too strong for him and will take him down and hold him there. I like Steele in this one, I want to see what the odds will look like.

 

[Tebowned]

Notable size Advantages:

BB vs Hunto:
6'3 versus 5'10/ 5" Height Advantage.
79" versus 72"/ 7" Reach Advantage.

Derek Brunson vs Dan Kelly:
78" versus 70.5"/ 7.5" Reach Advantage.

Dan Hooker vs Ross Pearson:
6' versus 5"8/ 4" Height Advanatage
75.5" versus 69"/ 6.5" Reach Advantage.

Frankenstein vs the Hulk:
6'4 versus 6'1/ 3" Height Advantage

Dong Hyun Kim(#2) vs Thibault Gouti
5'11 versus 5'7/ 4" Height Advantage
70.5" versus 72.5"/ 2" Reach Disadvantage**


Not sure if this means anything tbh. The only semi-technical guy with an advantage is Hooker.
**Weird to me

 

[JDB]

Stats in mma are pretty worthless. Not entirely worthless, but close. Using stats as a main way of seeing what someone's striking defense or takedown defense is is not good.

That is a ridiculous statement.

Fighting isn't that hard, you are picking fighter A over fighter B or vise versa. Try picking a winner in a race with 20 horses without a form guide (stats, numbers) and without it being random luck.

The answer is often in the numbers, MMA is no different, but the numbers don't tell us certain things that our eyes do. Like for example how in the UFC post USADA era fighter A went from being a shredded killing machine to a 38 year old man with a deflated dad bod.

 

[JDB]

19:55 Lewis talk starts around there, the rest is Hunt ranting about roids and UFC.

-Hunt says he was contractually forced to fight Reem but wasn't forced to fight BB.
-Hunt goes on to say he respects Lewis as a fighter and for not being a juicehead.
-Hunt says that he needs to win this fight and wants to put BB away quickly and move on.

 

[Oblivian]

That is a ridiculous statement.

Fighting isn't that hard, you are picking fighter A over fighter B or vise versa. Try picking a winner in a race with 20 horses without a form guide (stats, numbers) and without it being random luck.

The answer is often in the numbers, MMA is no different, but the numbers don't tell us certain things that our eyes do. Like for example how in the UFC post USADA era fighter A went from being a shredded killing machine to a 38 year old man with a deflated dad bod.

I don't think his post is off really. The problem is how the stats are compiled. What is marked a significant strike sometimes doesn't even land. What can be considered a "takedown attempt" may just be something to set up a clinch. Don't even get me started on sub attempts. Sub attempts sometimes count for guys just throwing up their legs fishing for something that isn't there.

I feel if the stats were more reliable and consistent, then they'd hold more weight.

 

[EzFlyer]

He HAD a good chin. he's been KOed in his last four losses. He's also 43 years old. BB is also one of the hardest hitters in the HW division

that's pretty crazy.. is that right? wait, lesnar decisioned him..

 

[JDB]

I don't think his post is off really. The problem is how the stats are compiled. What is marked a significant strike sometimes doesn't even land. What can be considered a "takedown attempt" may just be something to set up a clinch. Don't even get me started on sub attempts. Sub attempts sometimes count for guys just throwing up their legs fishing for something that isn't there.

I feel if the stats were more reliable and consistent, then they'd hold more weight.

I get that but to say the data is next to useless in nonsense. More likely there just isn't enough information to paint a coherent picture out of.

Also key stats tend to be less open to interpretation than a person eyes, which can be biased, uneducated, etc.

 

[Sham5916910]

Stats can be very very misleading in MMA.

 

[EzFlyer]

MMA math crew checking in..


Alvey starches Kelly with a blitz
Brunson starches Alvey with a blitz

Brunson loses to Kelly 29/28 winning the 1st
Am I doing it right ?

haha

your logic & math is unassailable!

 

[BigNick100]

I got Hunt in this one. Hunt has faced the better competition for sure. I know people have said Hunt is 43 and his last 4 losses were by KO (he loss 5 fights but Brock's win was overturned), but those losses were to the 3 past heavyweight champions and Overeeem who has looked better in the last couple years.

Can anyone say they are impressed by Lewis's win lately besides Travis Browne who had him in trouble? Looking into Lewis 9's UFC wins screams mediocre. It's actually quite bad and I think Lewis caught a lot of these fighters on their decline.

Win 1 - Guto - 1-2 in his last 3 and hasn't fought in 3 years
Win 2 - Jack May - 2-3 in his last 5
Win 3 - Ruan - 3-5 in his last 8
Win 4 - Pesta - 1-3 in his last 4
Win 5 - Grabowski - 1-3 in his last 4
Win 6 - Gonzaga - 3-5 in his last 8
Win 7 - Nelson - 3-7 in his last 10 (I thought Nelson won this fight)
Win 8 - Shamil - 5-3 in his last 8
Win 9 - Browne - 2- 6 in his last 8

The only guy Lewis faced that had some momentum and wasn't a can or on the decline is Shamil, and Shamil was winning that fight until Lewis finished him.

Hunt will be facing someone just as slow as him, he does not need to worry about take downs this fight. Lewis has also been finished twice so it's not to say Lewis has a great chin. Hunt has a great chin but that may be coming to the end soon with all these losses lately. But really Overeem is the only to really crack his chin and put him out, and was with a brutal knee in the clinch. Junior finished him but the spinning head kick hit never his temple and dropped him. Werdum cracked him with a knee in the gut and took all the wind out of him, and Stipe had to land the most significant strikes landed in a fight to put away Hunt.

It can be said that Hunt hasn't had a great win in a while, Mir and Bigfoot are on the decline too but Hunt has way more experience here, he packs just as much power as Lewis and he is the better striker.

Hunt also wants to win this fight and it's in his hometown. Lewis will be traveling for this fight. Hunt can def get cracked this fight but the side to pick is Hunt here IMO.

 

[DarkneT]

People still believe in Ben 10?

Really...

MMA math crew are back and after smolka mauled him on the ground
Then Elliot mauled smolka on the ground

Where we going with this one boys?
Granted Elliot is short notice and it's a helluva flight has to factor in

 

[Oblivian]

I think I'm going to be backing Hunt here. Lewis is not very good standing, and he's plodding. He'll come in wild too which Hunt can counter. Lewis does best against guys looking to take him down as he is not easy to hold down and can land on top. Lewis's takedowns are also because of strength and overpowering, and Hunt is a strong guy himself. Not a super confident play, but I think Hunt is the right side.

 

[Sham5916910]

People still believe in Ben 10?

Really...

MMA math crew are back and after smolka mauled him on the ground
Then Elliot mauled smolka on the ground

Where we going with this one boys?
Granted Elliot is short notice and it's a helluva flight has to factor in

My worry with Elliott is the weight cut, flight and binge after the Smolka fight in Thailand. His top control isn't great but I'm not sure Ben has the game to keep getting up. Real hard fight to call and I am very intrigued to see the odds.