UFN 110 - Lewis vs Hunt - New Zealand

[DarkneT]

My worry with Elliott is the weight cut, flight and binge after the Smolka fight in Thailand. His top control isn't great but I'm not sure Ben has the game to keep getting up. Real hard fight to call and I am very intrigued to see the odds.

That flights gotta be a real factor will have to pay close attention to Tim as that grind style will kill his own cardio, if ben can survive the first round maybe he starts taking over 2/3
Agreed this might be the fight to jump on when odds go up

 

[EzFlyer]

i think going big on hunt-lewis in any capacity is a mistake, flat-out. even if it ends up being easy for one of them in the fight.

 

[weedreference]

i think going big on hunt-lewis in any capacity is a mistake, flat-out. even if it ends up being easy for one of them in the fight.

Most mind-boggling fight of the year in my opinion.

 

[JDB]

i think going big on hunt-lewis in any capacity is a mistake, flat-out. even if it ends up being easy for one of them in the fight.

100%

 

[EzFlyer]

great info @Ukram @Tebowned

 

[Card]

Start time 7 PM EST

Derrick Lewis vs. Mark Hunt
Derek Brunson vs. Daniel Kelly
Dan Hooker vs. Ross Pearson
Ion Cutelaba vs. Henrique da Silva
Tim Elliott vs. Ben Nguyen
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Mizuto Hirota
Damien Brown vs. Vinc Pichel
Luke Jumeau vs. Dominique Steele
John Moraga vs. Ashkan Mokhtarian
Kiichi Kunimoto vs. Zak Ottow
JJ Aldrich vs. Chanmi Jeon
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Thibault Gouti

 

[lawmills2006]

Ashkan Mokhtarian (fighting John moraga)
13-1, 31 years old (6kos and 6subs)
Mokhtarian began training in BJJ and later in kick boxing. His MMA career took off by winning his first four fights by submission and won Australia Eternal Bantamweight Title on April 2016 with a 12-1 record.

Some older fights





other videos on his training routine, gym he founded (Australian top team)

Spoiler

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9wpqp8lf-g

Says he likes to strike 'maybe' not seen much of it from the above videos, lots of fakes and jabs and setting up his take downs (some good timed entries shown) and relies on his gnp and top control, trained bjj and striking(MT). Poor quality opponents overall.

My buddy knows this Ashkan fellow. Apparently his cardio is trash for a bantam. Will def be on Moraga (Moreso than I already would have been)

 

[Card]

Short notice:
- Tim Elliott (in for Joseph Benavidez) vs. Ben Nguyen [3 weeks]
- Zak Ottow (in for Warlley Alves) vs. Kiichi Kunimoto [2 weeks]
- Chan Mi Jeon (in for Nadia Kassem) vs. JJ Aldrich [1 week]

 

[Bless]

My worry with Elliott is the weight cut, flight and binge after the Smolka fight in Thailand. His top control isn't great but I'm not sure Ben has the game to keep getting up. Real hard fight to call and I am very intrigued to see the odds.

Elliot -222
Nguyen +155

BetAtHome

 

[iGnP]

that's pretty crazy.. is that right? wait, lesnar decisioned him..

wasnt counting it Bc it's a NC but you're right

 

[Antagonist88]

Elliot -222
Nguyen +155

BetAtHome

Do they have the rest of the lines up too? I can't access the site on my phone for some reason

 

[Kaius]

Do they have the rest of the lines up too? I can't access the site on my phone for some reason

No, just brunson and hunt matches with the Elliot one..

 

[Card]

I wanted this fight, Hunt will come out and bang, won't try to hold me, won't run, I'm on a roll, I want entertaining fights, I'm doing this for the money, I want JDS next, He picked against me

 

[quincy k]

I don't think his post is off really. The problem is how the stats are compiled. What is marked a significant strike sometimes doesn't even land. What can be considered a "takedown attempt" may just be something to set up a clinch. Don't even get me started on sub attempts. Sub attempts sometimes count for guys just throwing up their legs fishing for something that isn't there.

I feel if the stats were more reliable and consistent, then they'd hold more weight.

stats dont tell the whole picture so you need to watch the fight as well. there are times in boxing when i believe that a fighter has won the fight only to see that the punch stats were even and that other people were on the other side.

then again, you have guys coming here saying that there was a possiblity that max was going to gas against aldo because he had never gone five rounds yet he has thrown over 200 punches in three rounds, more of less what jose does in five.

basic math to have known that cardio was probably not going to be an issue if holloway only averaged 45 a round

 

[Card]

I was asked to the recent TUF, but I couldn't do it because of school, last fight, broke my orbital in my last fight (2014), went back to work full time, pulled my shoulder during work, legal battle for years to fight for insurance, broke up with my finance, I couldn't eat because I was poor, bad depression and anger, I was in therapy, never been there, going 2 weeks early to sight see, no one would know my training partners, I train all over the place, it's an honor I'm still fighting, I like third person shooter games

 

[Card]

(3 year layoff) Before I did TUF, I almost quit fighting, last fight I broke my orbital, I had double vision, during my regular job, I pulled my shoulder and I needed major surgery, I needed my bicep reattached, I was out for a year, workman's comp was the worst, they wouldn't pay me, I broke up with fiance, low point in my life, I had to move in with friends, I've been trying to fight since Dec, but I'm in school, (electrician) I work full time, go to school and train, I don't know why I feel so healthy right now, I'm a banger (go hard), but now I take care of my body more, I don't believe in ring rust, I was born to fight, MMA is 90% mental, he's a military vet, he's tough, I feel like I'm better all around, I don't have a gameplan, it goes where it goes, just have fun

 

[Joseph Budden]

Good lord Pichel does not sound like hes in a place to compete in the UFC with things hes gone through past 3 years.

 

[Card]

It's about training smarter, not harder, Elliott has a crazy pace, unpredictable, he'll try to take me down, watch out for guillotine, I'm flying 3 hours, he's flying 20 hours, it might mess him up, when I go to the states it takes me a week to adjust, I have to drive alot to find training partners, getting them to do what Tim does is hard, you have to focus on your strategy and gameplan, weight is on track, weigh ins are on Friday, but we fight Sunday (2 days before), weight sticks on to you when you travel, he won't want to stand up for me too long, I'll get back up if he takes me down, my ground game is underrated, I can defend

 

[Card]

I had a wrist injury, fought Sergio with it, so I needed time to get healed, I did not get surgery, as long as I have it tapped, it's ok, I didn't have as much grip strength as normal, I only had 3 weeks to prep, I skipped the UFC retreat, he's been out for 2 years, training with Rick Glenn, I did a BJJ tournament recently, I won, weight cut is going good, I have to stay diligent, I'm sick of split decisions, it has to be a finish

 

[Yotsuya]

Here's my play on Hunt - Lewis:

Hunt ml 0.55u 2.0
O1.5 0.4u 1.95
Lewis R3 0.05u 11.5
Lewis R4 0.05u 19.0
Lewis R5 0.05u 29

Possible results:
BB finishes Hunt early -1.1u (15-20%?)
Hunt finishes BB early +-0. (30%?)
Lewis finishes late R2 or gets dec -0.35u (15-20%?)
Hunt wins after O1.5 hits +0.8u
BB finishes R3-R5 +0.35u-1.25u

A bit too complicated maybe, but feels like a profitable play. I might add more if Bet365 comes up with good R-props and O1.5 keeps climbing. O1.5 @1.95 feels like a good play on it's own too. Any thoughts?