UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

[timmyclax22]

Holloway +400? Can't pass that up. Amazing value. I have this near a Coinflip.

Wish it wasn't short notice obviously, but I think the price would be much closer if it wasntw

Glad we’re on the same page buddy.

Fuck it, adding to Max 1U +354.

Win win for the UFC here in my opinion and once again this will be unpopular but I’m more excited for this than the originalz. I got my hopes up enough last March and fuckin had it with this matchup and the cancellations.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I think the ML for Max will be very high value just before the fight. People chase losses right? I think big money will come on Khabib especially late.

 

[zeckdo]

Kevin Lee is in training camp, that would have been a much more competitive match up than short notice no training Holloway. Can't believe the UFC is setting up Max to fail like this.

 

[Orion]

Would have liked to have seen Ortega in there from a stylistic standpoint. Lee as a second option. Still lost at fuck at how Max can even do this with his ankle.

 

[Oblivian]

I think the Holloway matchup is a pretty cool matchup if it wasn't for the injury. Not sure if I'm in the minority here, but I think Holloway is a better fighter than Tony.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I really doubt Max's ankle injury is significant enough to be a direct problem. It sounds relatively minor, he was saying he still wanted to go vs Ortega.

The bigger worry is that he likely is not in peak physical condition because the ankle has limited his training. Gotta worry his cardio isn't as elite as normal, which is significant in a 5 round fight vs an opponent as relentless as Khabib

 

[Orion]

Holloway +400? Can't pass that up. Amazing value. I have this near a Coinflip.

Wish it wasn't short notice obviously, but I think the price would be much closer if it wasntw

Can you post your analysis/thoughts on why you have it as a coinflip?

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I think the Holloway matchup is a pretty cool matchup if it wasn't for the injury. Not sure if I'm in the minority here, but I think Holloway is a better fighter than Tony.

Holloway is better than Tony and it's not close. If they fought each other I really don't think Tony would have much of a chance. Max would tag his face over and over again and Tony wouldn't be able to rely on eventually outlasting him with superior durability + cardio bc Max is just as good as Tony in those regards.

Against Khabib it's a weirder matchup, but I still think Max has better odds of beating him. At least without the worries re: ankle + short camp

 

[Oblivian]

I really doubt Max's ankle injury is significant enough to be a direct problem. It sounds relatively minor, he was saying he still wanted to go vs Ortega.

The bigger worry is that he likely is not in peak physical condition because the ankle has limited his training. Gotta worry his cardio isn't as elite as normal, which is significant in a 5 round fight vs an opponent as relentless as Khabib

Not to mention the gameplanning and training specifically for Khabib. Max has a very tall task ahead of him. I'm sure he'll have media engagements too.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Not to mention the gameplanning and training specifically for Khabib. Max has a very tall task ahead of him. I'm sure he'll have media engagements too.

I don't think this is a huge deal because he has talked about fighting Khabib a bunch of times in the past. He has likely already given a fair bit of thought to gameplanning, while Khabib likely never expected to face Max this soon.

It would be nice to have a few extra reps of takedown defense, but he seems to be practicing this diligently anyway based on how much he has improved. And there is only so much you can do to simulate a fighter as unique as Khabib in training.

It's arguably a bigger disadvantage for Khabib having to prepare for Max on such short notice, as he is a unique threat in his own rite.

 

[iGnP]

http://www.mmaweekly.com/dana-white...ok-tony-ferguson-vs-khabib-nurmagomedov-again

 

[zeckdo]

Video of Max Holloway sparring with Angela Hill on March 18th.


Also a picture of him at pro practice on the 17th.


I think Max was training a little more than we think. No way he would take it with no training.

No where near as competitive on paper as Ferguson, but I still have hope we could see a good fight. Still wiping my tears on my new 10th planet hoodie I bought specifically to support Tony in Brooklyn.

 

[piglord]

pretty sure max was training tdd like crazy with the edgar fight imminent.

 

[EzFlyer]

Can you post your analysis/thoughts on why you have it as a coinflip?

Max has a huge edge on the feet. He's sturdy as hell. If he can keep his back off of the cage I think he pieces khabib up. Clear path to victory. Easier said than done, but max has as good of a slillset to accomplish this as anyone. Better than tony, In fact. Tony was gonna 100% have to come from behind. His tdd not nearly as good

 

[mkess101]

Holloway is better than Tony and it's not close. If they fought each other I really don't think Tony would have much of a chance. Max would tag his face over and over again and Tony wouldn't be able to rely on eventually outlasting him with superior durability + cardio bc Max is just as good as Tony in those regards.

Against Khabib it's a weirder matchup, but I still think Max has better odds of beating him. At least without the worries re: ankle + short camp

Ridiculous stance that "its not close" imo. I think saying Max is better isn't crazy at all, but saying it's not up for debate is just silly.

Max is the more refined striker. Better striking defense for sure, although some of that is due to Tony WANTING wars of attrition. Tony is the superior grappler by far. Max has better TDD but every other aspect of grappling Tony is much better.

Max has great cardio and toughness, I maybe still give that edge to Tony but it's for sure close. Tony also has more ways to finish fights. The best front headlock snapdown in MMA that he turns seamlessly into fight-ending chokes. And this is really important due to how easy and often fights end up in that position where Tony can utilize it. Trujillo, Tibau, and Lando all were finished starting from that spot.

Again, crazy to say you feel Max is the better fighter? Not at all. I disagree, but can see the arguments. Saying "it' not even close"? Ridiculous.

 

[piglord]

bochniak +600 lol.

 

[zeckdo]

Max has a huge edge on the feet. He's sturdy as hell. If he can keep his back off of the cage I think he pieces khabib up. Clear path to victory. Easier said than done, but max has as good of a slillset to accomplish this as anyone. Better than tony, In fact. Tony was gonna 100% have to come from behind. His tdd not nearly as good

Is it insane to think that Holloway could rock Khabib in one of the first few exchanges? Max's hands are some of the best in the UFC and Khabib's striking defense is not very good. Max round 1 prop would be +2000

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Is it insane to think that Holloway could rock Khabib in one of the first few exchanges? Max's hands are some of the best in the UFC and Khabib's striking defense is not very good. Max round 1 prop would be +2000

Its somewhat possible, but no way this is as good as Max ML. He is more of a cumulative striker, and Khabib’s chin looked solid vs Barboza. Max most likely path either decision or late finish

 

[t6p]

Max has a huge edge on the feet. He's sturdy as hell. If he can keep his back off of the cage I think he pieces khabib up. Clear path to victory. Easier said than done, but max has as good of a slillset to accomplish this as anyone. Better than tony, In fact. Tony was gonna 100% have to come from behind. His tdd not nearly as good

I don't disagree with any of that, but the difference for me here vs the Ferguson matchup is that Holloway has shown nothing off his back. If Khabib gets on top, Max might be in trouble unless he's made major improvements to his bottom game since the last time we saw him there.

Still, I'll be on Max too for sure. Maybe he can keep it standing or survive the first few rounds and turn it up late if Khabib slows down.

 

[EzFlyer]

I don't disagree with any of that, but the difference for me here vs the Ferguson matchup is that Holloway has shown nothing off his back. If Khabib gets on top, Max might be in trouble unless he's made major improvements to his bottom game since the last time we saw him there.

Still, I'll be on Max too for sure. Maybe he can keep it standing or survive the first few rounds and turn it up late if Khabib slows down.

It's the only option, imo. Even if khabib makes this look easy, I will still say -400 khabib was a bad bst