UFC 228 - Till V Woodley

Dianabol said:
Yeah he's tough but he gets rocked or dropped in so many fights and he's been KO'd before. Got KO'd 2 years ago by a low level Korean fighter on the regional scene. Then nearly got KO'd again by another low level Korean fighter with a 3-1 record a year later. Leech nearly KO'd him too in Camacho's UFC debut.

It wouldn't surprise me if Neal got the KO but I'm not really confident he wins that way, a submission or decision is almost just as likely but I'm gonna go with the KO, Neal has got hands.
Click to expand...
See I haven't been super impressed with Neal. Camozzi isn't UFC level at all imo. Camacho gets tagged but also lands, and when he tires (unlike Neal imo) he still is throwing and coming forward.

I'd need to see those losses prior to the UFC. There's some sketchy ass stoppages in smaller orgs. Not saying that happened with Frank but wouldn't shock me if it did. Or could just be one of those perfectly placed shots.

I think at worst this should be a pick 'em. I'll gladly take +160 on Camacho.
 
Lol Zabit -1175. "Wow only 1050 opener? I'll hit that. 10u to win 1u. Ima gonna be rich."
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Lol Zabit -1175. "Wow only 1050 opener? I'll hit that. 10u to win 1u. Ima gonna be rich."
Click to expand...
Yeah I expected Zabit to open at -1000, no surprise there

More disappointed about the odds on Brooks cause I was hoping for something decent. Opened at -245 then went straight to -350 which is totally unplayable, especially for a guy that just KO'd himself and is taking a fight on 5 days notice.
 
Dianabol said:
Opened at -245 then went straight to -350 which is totally unplayable, especially for a guy that just KO'd himself and is taking a fight on 5 days notice.
Click to expand...
Yeah same thoughts here. He most likely wins but value on the moneyline is lost.
 
mkess101 said:
I think everyone agrees Woodley has monster power. If he lands the shot that he hit Koscheck or Lawler with on Till then it's probably goodnight. Those were nukes. But he doesn't throw them that often, he waits...and waits...and throws no volume. He cracked Wonderboy with one big shot in their first fight but WB survived and arguably still won the fight.

Plus, I don't know how ELSE Woodley beats Till. The cardio isn't there to wrestle and the volume isn't there to win a decision. Woodley KO maybe makes more sense than his ML.
Click to expand...
I’d say we still have question marks on tills cardio. The five rounder vs wonderboy wasn’t exactly high paced

If till pressures woodley he’s going to open himself up to big counters. Woodleys power coupled with tills horrible weight cut could be a recipe for disaster for till.

This fight could possibly end up looking like wonderboy Vs woodley, and in that case I’d have to go with the plus odds.

I think woodley should be slightly favored

His lack of volume and cardio is a bit concerning. I do think he could win a decision and wouldn’t rule it out, especially with new rules putting more emphasis on knockdowns and damage.
 
Lucie Pudilova vs Irene Aldana is going to be super competitive I think

I was leaning Aldana before rewatching their fights but now I'm leaning the other way. I really like the way Pudilova fights, she's mean and nasty, very competitive mentality.

Both girls have good boxing, could be a 15 minutes of striking but it'd be a good idea for either of them to try and mix in a TD, Aldana is probably more likely to do so but I see Pudilova has been working her wrestling too.

Pudilova seems to be the fighter making the bigger improvements, she's still very young, only 24. Aldana on the other hand is 30 and she's really been a disappointment since coming over to the UFC.

I think Pudilova gets the win with her improvements and competitive edge. Aldana's boxing technique looks really pretty but it's not as good as it looks, the girl gets hit a lot. Pudilova is nasty, she's got underrated power too, look what she does to her opponents faces.
 
I think Camacho is definitely playable. Neal doesn't look like he has a gas tank and Camacho is tough as hell. I can see Camacho getting the finish in the third round. Neal looked gassed against Holland and got stopped in the third there. Camacho will give him a tough night.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Yeah same thoughts here. He most likely wins but value on the moneyline is lost.
Click to expand...

I think he's playable down to -400. Sanchez is not going to have any success on the ground and definitely is outgunned in the striking department.
 
mkess101 said:
See I haven't been super impressed with Neal. Camozzi isn't UFC level at all imo. Camacho gets tagged but also lands, and when he tires (unlike Neal imo) he still is throwing and coming forward.

I'd need to see those losses prior to the UFC. There's some sketchy ass stoppages in smaller orgs. Not saying that happened with Frank but wouldn't shock me if it did. Or could just be one of those perfectly placed shots.

I think at worst this should be a pick 'em. I'll gladly take +160 on Camacho.
Click to expand...
After watching his recent fights I don’t know how you could be concerned with the guys chin. He’s eaten monster shots and is tough as nails.

I’m pretty sure when I taped him about a year ago I wasn’t concerned with his regional tkos much.
 
ill800 said:
After watching his recent fights I don’t know how you could be concerned with the guys chin. He’s eaten monster shots and is tough as nails.

I’m pretty sure when I taped him about a year ago I wasn’t concerned with his regional tkos much.
Click to expand...
The dude he most recently got KO'd by hits damned hard, and it was more of a RDA-Alvarez style standing accumulation thing than Camacho being put out clean.
 
GrantSorenson said:
I think Camacho is definitely playable. Neal doesn't look like he has a gas tank and Camacho is tough as hell. I can see Camacho getting the finish in the third round. Neal looked gassed against Holland and got stopped in the third there. Camacho will give him a tough night.
Click to expand...

i'm quite intrigued by neal dec at +240.
 
man i favor brooks but i can't fucking play -350. fight goes to decision at -140 seems fair though.
 
Dianabol said:
Lucie Pudilova vs Irene Aldana is going to be super competitive I think

I was leaning Aldana before rewatching their fights but now I'm leaning the other way. I really like the way Pudilova fights, she's mean and nasty, very competitive mentality.

Both girls have good boxing, could be a 15 minutes of striking but it'd be a good idea for either of them to try and mix in a TD, Aldana is probably more likely to do so but I see Pudilova has been working her wrestling too.

Pudilova seems to be the fighter making the bigger improvements, she's still very young, only 24. Aldana on the other hand is 30 and she's really been a disappointment since coming over to the UFC.

I think Pudilova gets the win with her improvements and competitive edge. Aldana's boxing technique looks really pretty but it's not as good as it looks, the girl gets hit a lot. Pudilova is nasty, she's got underrated power too, look what she does to her opponents faces.
Click to expand...
I believe Pudilova has better jiu jitsu & slightly better wrestling. Pudilova definitely making bigger leaps in improvement from fight to fight. Value on Pudilova @ +105 & +160 Dec.
 
piglord said:
man i favor brooks but i can't fucking play -350. fight goes to decision at -140 seems fair though.
Click to expand...

Idk if I would feel good about that line, honestly. Both their records have tons of finishes. Brooks puts on tons of pressure. I see Brooks catching him with a big shot or wearing him down for a finish, or Sanchez catching a slick sub somewhere in the mix. I don't think Sanchez can hang with him for long if he doesn't catch that. I'd favor itd here personally.
 
rev0lver said:
Idk if I would feel good about that line, honestly. Both their records have tons of finishes. Brooks puts on tons of pressure. I see Brooks catching him with a big shot or wearing him down for a finish, or Sanchez catching a slick sub somewhere in the mix. I don't think Sanchez can hang with him for long if he doesn't catch that. I'd favor itd here personally.
Click to expand...

going off memory on brooks, you might be right but i don't remember him as a puncher and can't see him wanting to tangle on the mat for too long.
 
piglord said:
going off memory on brooks, you might be right but i don't remember him as a puncher and can't see him wanting to tangle on the mat for too long.
Click to expand...

Brooks won't have any problems on the mat. That is where he wants to take it. This fight is a mismatch on the mat
 
Omni1 said:
I believe Pudilova has better jiu jitsu & slightly better wrestling. Pudilova definitely making bigger leaps in improvement from fight to fight. Value on Pudilova @ +105 & +160 Dec.
Click to expand...

I haven't seen Pudilova make very much improvements at all since her first fight. She trains out of a no-name gym in the Czech republic where she is the biggest name. Her defense hasn't really improved. In her last fight she tried some head movement when her opponent wasn't even in striking range but when she got bum rushed by Sarah Moras of all people, she got tagged and hurt. Against Kim, she got countered so badly in the first 2 rounds that she complained in between rounds about how she couldn't strike with Kim and proceeded to wall and stall her way to a non-deserved win (Kim clearly won the first 2 rounds IMO).

The biggest problem for Pudilova in this fight is her lack of power and physicality. Once Kim realized that she could just walk through Pudilova's soft punches, she really dominated the striking. Pudilova was outclinched and outgrappled by Lansberg early, was 50/50 clinching with Kim, and lost Rd1 on bottom to Mroas (and could've lost Rd3 too IMO). We saw how strong Aldan was outwrestling and overpowering Bernardo in her last fight, so I think that Pudilova trying to grapple would just tire her out.

This is a pretty even fight but with Aldana's power and her physicality, whatever she does might make more of an impact in the judge's eyes. So I liked Aldana as a slight underdog, and also liked her +155 decision line.
 
Totals are out. I'm disappointed that the main event is set as high as 4½. I was hoping the oddsmakers figured that one or both of these heavy hitters could end it under 2½ or 3½. I do like Byrd/Stewart Under 1½ at +105 though.
 
Byrd/Stewart total set at 2.5 rounds for me @ -225. No idea why they wouldn't start at 1.5
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,481
Messages
55,494,033
Members
174,790
Latest member
stor

Share this page

Back
Top