UFC 228 - Till V Woodley

[Wiktoruspro]

They are 3u on Conor. I'll leave it at that lol

Well Conor has a puncher chance in the first and second round so there is nothing to lol about.

 

[Gugabe]

They are 3u on Conor. I'll leave it at that lol

Entitled to their opinion, especially with that track record. I personally disagree with a fair few of their picks, but they're willing to provide reason when asked about it and have a great strike rate.

 

[Larthus]

Entitled to their opinion, especially with that track record. I personally disagree with a fair few of their picks, but they're willing to provide reason when asked about it and have a great strike rate.

You're right. I'm just being salty and biased right now. Gotta separate my ego from my betting game.

 

[zeckdo]

points handicap out.

took Camacho +3.5 at -120, think he will win 1 round at least, maybe 2. Don't see Neal finishing him.
White -3.5 +110 is a good line, but already big on his ML, so I'll hold off.
Karolina +3.5 +125 is another good line, think she will will 1 round against Andrade.

 

[mkess101]

Andrade -3.5 at -155 for 2u.

 

[mkess101]

points handicap out.

took Camacho +3.5 at -120, think he will win 1 round at least, maybe 2. Don't see Neal finishing him.
White -3.5 +110 is a good line, but already big on his ML, so I'll hold off.
Karolina +3.5 +125 is another good line, think she will will 1 round against Andrade.

Agree on Camacho. Hard to see him not getting at least 1 rd with his forward aggression.

Totally disagree on KK. I think even a somewhat tired Andrade can take her down and hold her there. I see 30-27's across the board in a grappling mismatch. We just saw in Invicta how much a big grappling edge matters in WMMA. And as solid as KK is striking, she's physically no match for Andrade and will be outclassed on the mat imo.

 

[Orion]

Neal backers, why are you on Neal over Camacho? Interested to see some analysis because I'm not seeing it aside from maybe an athleticism advantage

 

[zeckdo]

Agree on Camacho. Hard to see him not getting at least 1 rd with his forward aggression.

Totally disagree on KK. I think even a somewhat tired Andrade can take her down and hold her there. I see 30-27's across the board in a grappling mismatch. We just saw in Invicta how much a big grappling edge matters in WMMA. And as solid as KK is striking, she's physically no match for Andrade and will be outclassed on the mat imo.

If Jessica chooses to try and dominate her on the ground I can't see it lasting the full 15. KK wimped out to Gadelha very quickly not that long ago. If it goes to the cards I see it happening because Andrade is content with standing and trading with Karolina, where they are fairly evenly matched, and KK might win the 2nd or 3rd. If you see Andrade dominating KK on the mat I would highly suggest Andrade sub at +335, ITD Is +220, but Andrade only has 1 tko in the past 5 years, don't see that happening.

 

[mkess101]

If Jessica chooses to try and dominate her on the ground I can't see it lasting the full 15. KK wimped out to Gadelha very quickly not that long ago. If it goes to the cards I see it happening because Andrade is content with standing and trading with Karolina, where they are fairly evenly matched, and KK might win the 2nd or 3rd. If you see Andrade dominating KK on the mat I would highly suggest Andrade sub at +335, ITD Is +220, but Andrade only has 1 tko in the past 5 years, don't see that happening.

You could be right. I took the more conservative -3.5. I feel Andrade will dominate, but not sure she finishes.

 

[rev0lver]

Neal backers, why are you on Neal over Camacho? Interested to see some analysis because I'm not seeing it aside from maybe an athleticism advantage

Not really "on Neal" but I'd prob pick him if the odds were reversed. I'm not really worried about him gassing that much when Camacho's gas tank might be worse. He has good striking, great counterpunching, and you can't always rely on someone's chin. I am pretty confident that Neal is the better striker.

Camacho's toughness will be the only thing that wins it for him if he does. He might have better grappling, but he doesn't really use it much. Probably because it costs him too much energy.

 

[Stunna77]

Not really "on Neal" but I'd prob pick him if the odds were reversed. I'm not really worried about him gassing that much when Camacho's gas tank might be worse. He has good striking, great counterpunching, and you can't always rely on someone's chin. I am pretty confident that Neal is the better striker.

Camacho's toughness will be the only thing that wins it for him if he does. He might have better grappling, but he doesn't really use it much. Probably because it costs him too much energy.

Would hammer Neal if lines were reversed. Not really impressed with Camacho. I mean he clearly has some skill and is extremely tough, but his gas tank sucks, he is hittable af and has had a pretty easy slate tbh. Got two brawlers in Li and Brown (one of them a lw) and then another mid-tier LW in Dober. Neal a full-size WW with fast, powerful hands and seems to have a decently well-rounded skillset. Unless Camacho lands heavy or gasses Neal out early, without gassing himself (tough ask), I think Neal wins pretty comfortably. Lines seem accurate so no bet for me thus far.

 

[Sadistics]

Would hammer Neal if lines were reversed. Not really impressed with Camacho. I mean he clearly has some skill and is extremely tough, but his gas tank sucks, he is hittable af and has had a pretty easy slate tbh. Got two brawlers in Li and Brown (one of them a lw) and then another mid-tier LW in Dober. Neal a full-size WW with fast, powerful hands and seems to have a decently well-rounded skillset. Unless Camacho lands heavy or gasses Neal out early, without gassing himself (tough ask), I think Neal wins pretty comfortably. Lines seem accurate so no bet for me thus far.

In his only UFC win vs Brown, he missed weight by 5lbs

 

[Dianabol]

Entitled to their opinion, especially with that track record. I personally disagree with a fair few of their picks, but they're willing to provide reason when asked about it and have a great strike rate.

Oracle's record is super inflated though, he did a bunch of 11u bets early on and it boosted his profit and ROI. Now he doesn't do anything more than a 5u bet it seems.Also posts questionable looking odds. Still a really good handicapper but not as good as the record indicates.

 

[edole]

What do so think about Dodson vs. Rivera??

It's only been about 3 months since Rivera was knocked out.

Dodson is still very high level and should have the speed advantage here.

I kind of lean Dodson +130.

Thoughts?

 

[Stunna77]

What do so think about Dodson vs. Rivera??

It's only been about 3 months since Rivera was knocked out.

Dodson is still very high level and should have the speed advantage here.

I kind of lean Dodson +130.

Thoughts?

Same thoughts, Rivera needs to win a volume based split based on judges preference, not sure how you can bet him as a fav. Also Dodson NSC fell to -145 and somehow all the way to -108, I went 2u each, so my Dodson stake is 2u ml +125, 4u NSC -126. No idea who the hell was smashing Rivera NSC or why, but I will take it.

 

[Danis_champ]

Yeah he's tough but he gets rocked or dropped in so many fights and he's been KO'd before. Got KO'd 2 years ago by a low level Korean fighter on the regional scene. Then nearly got KO'd again by another low level Korean fighter with a 3-1 record a year later. Leech nearly KO'd him too in Camacho's UFC debut.

It wouldn't surprise me if Neal got the KO but I'm not really confident he wins that way, a submission or decision is almost just as likely but I'm gonna go with the KO, Neal has got hands.

Neal is more skilled and a better athlete. He's also the hometown guy.

I don't really see the comparison with Brown, besides that they are both athletic and black.

Think you'll be surprised, I hope money comes in on Camacho so I can get a better number on Neal.

Dude wanna make Avatar bet on Camacho/Neal fight? If I win you carry avatar I pick for 1 month and vice versa. Agree?

 

[Danis_champ]

So who's the dog no one talked about but is going to win? I'd say Kow or Stewart

there are one or few every card

 

[Stunna77]

So who's the dog no one talked about but is going to win? I'd say Kow or Stewart

there are one or few every card

A few have talked about it, but he is still a pretty big dog. I know it's 2018, but this really is a good matchup for Diego.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Same thoughts, Rivera needs to win a volume based split based on judges preference, not sure how you can bet him as a fav. Also Dodson NSC fell to -145 and somehow all the way to -108, I went 2u each, so my Dodson stake is 2u ml +125, 4u NSC -126. No idea who the hell was smashing Rivera NSC or why, but I will take it.

Thanks for the tip

 

[barrygood1]

Love this card for value betting!
The new Eminem album is fire. Listening to it while in the lab handicapping my buttocks off. Got a few minutes to shoot the sh** with Sherdog betting community.
Barry's golden rule: Never place a wager that doesn't have value. For example: Just recently I bought a bunch of Nike stock at its lowest dip before this little fiasco blows over the kidd will profit handsomely as it slowly rises. The name of the game is value. It's a grind and I am in it for the long haul just following the yellow brick road...

On average you should find 2-3 value bets on any UFC card. Rarely will there be more, quite frequently there will be less. I get flustered when I read of posters betting multiple fights. If you want action and have the moolah to burn then be my guest. You want to take this seriously and make fat stacks? Heed my advice. I've worked my way from being an absolute mug to a fully fledged master handicapper. Reached a point where I do this as a full time job including my side investments like Bitcoin/Poker/Investments. #Discipline

I have barely a social life and no friends to call bros, merely acquaintances. My search for a girlfriend has led me into deep depression among other things politically. Not going to go there because just thinking about it makes me livid and irate. I'm still getting flak from quite a few sherdoggers which doesn't help with my self-esteem. I know it sounds like I whine and complain, but if you know how bad things really are you wouldn't wish what I've been going through on your worst enemy.

With that being said, got some Tennis and MLB handicapping that needs my attention.