UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Brian Ortega is Jim Jones and it’s almost time to pay the reaper for all the kool-aid that’s been drank in this thread
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
-How does one beat Valentina Shevchenko through mere "volume" when her whole game is based around counter-punching? Do people even think this through? The more you punch at Valentina, the more openings you give, which Holly Holm, a very high volume striker, found out.

Nevermind that Joanna relies on a height and reach advantage she won't have against Valentina, or that Valentina won't be nearly as cautious as she was against Amanda Nunes or Holm, for obvious reasons.
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Completely agree with these points. I made some similar arguments earlier in the thread.

I think people are weighting her performances against Nunes, particularly in the second fight, much to heavily here. I see Valentina winning a comfortable decision or hurting JJ at some point and finishing her. Unfortunately at -340 I'll be passing.
 
I want to share a quick story of one of the reasoins why I began betting (won't be 10 000 words, I promise):
I started to argue with people in forums in my country and on the youtube comment sections with foreigners about who is gonna win and why I think so. The problem with that is that if your view of the fight eventually is proven right, nobody gives two shits. 90% of the people won't give you any props, it's like you did nothing. People that were arguing with you the hardest you'll hear from them the least (if you got the fight right and vice versa). When you don't predict correctly of course you are called names and everybody comes to say how you don't know anything about MMA and should have never even tried to predict fights.

When you bet at least there is 100% possibility that when you guess right, you are going to get real reward for your effort, the harder the fight you picked, the bigger the reward. There is no point in arguing with strangers because even if you win, you didn't actually win. It's empty activity. Nobody will admit he was wrong, not only that he for sure will double down on what he said before. You won't receive a single good word for what you did. That's why I bet - real punishment when I am wrong, real reward when I am right. No bullshit
 
Regretting my Joanna play after looking back at some tape. JJ throws many many straight punches and Shevs check left hook is a thing of beauty. A leaping left hook is what dropped Joanna the 2nd time in the first Rose fight and was a punch she was still very susceptible to in the second Rose fight. Has she sealed up some of these holes? Could see a club n sub from Shev imo.

Took some Shev sub +400

Gonna leave this fight alone now though i'm starting to put too much money in random stabs.
 
Ortega and Holloway both on weight. Ortega 144.75 and Holloway 144.5.
 
Holloway and Ortega on weight as are JJ and Shevchenko. Holloway and Shev are getting the Ws tomorrow. Both fights are going to be great. Can't fuckin wait!
 
Omni1 said:
Excellent rule of thumb. I do the same when it comes to womens MMA. However, I do have one exception. That one exception is Jessica Eye. Horrible fight IQ. Looks good for only seconds at a time. She is simply not capable of making good decisions in the moment. Chook is going to win a decision. I know it seems too easy but sometimes the obvious answer is the best answer.
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Yea I agree and ended up betting chook dec -125

I’m hoping eye hasn’t spoken her delusions of being champion into reality with black magick powers
 
If witchcraft had any power in the real world Hillary would be President. No worries friend. Chook will be victorious.
 
I wouldn't trust Chook at her current price, this fight is going to be close. I'd be very surprised if either girl dominated. Eye might surprise people with her wrestling, her hands are good too.
 
ViolenceFight said:
After Sunday when max loses, I’m gonna come back & ask you what happened. We’ll see who gets the F for their analysis. Good luck, your boy Holloway is now the underdog because people are starting to realize Ortega will probably take this.
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I also think Ortega is going to win. Mainly because I don't believe we are going to get a 100% Holloway. If Holloway was 100% I'd probably back him. I have absolutely no clue, no clue how these guys can back Holloway with hard earned cash given his situation and even how he looks this week.

Anyway, point is, I agree Ortega is going to win, but there is no need to be such a prick about it.
 
Anyone listen to half the battle yet? If you want to take a nap listen to Shaq break down the fights
 
Holy shit Max looks like he cuts a lot more weight than Brian... he looked like a refugee in there.
I think he is getting into that FW Conor zone... but I dont see that affecting his performance tomorrow. He has like 36 hours to get back to his natural form. I wont be surprised if he looks noticeable bigger than Ortega in the official weigh ins.



Valentina in at 123.5 and in tremendous shape. Damn she is hot at FLW.
JJ at 123.75. Does not look like someone who had to go through a weightcut.
On a serious note I dont Val is going to be much bigger than JJ.
 
SalvadorAllende said:
Holy shit Max looks like he cuts a lot more weight than Brian... he looked like a refugee in there.
I think he is getting into that FW Conor zone... but I dont see that affecting his performance tomorrow. He has like 36 hours to get back to his natural form. I wont be surprised if he looks noticeable bigger than Ortega in the official weigh ins.



Valentina in at 123.5 and in tremendous shape. Damn she is hot at FLW.
JJ at 123.75. Does not look like someone who had to go through a weightcut.
On a serious note I dont Val is going to be much bigger than JJ.
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Holloway actually looked significantly better than he did at the last couple weigh-ins IMO.
 
Anyone else feeling strangely good about Shevchenko ITD? I feel like once she gets JJ to the mat, it's going to be a painfully one sided bout...
 
Really tough not to be swayed by the youtube video of the 3 MT fights between JJ and Schev...Schev looked much faster, landed better and landed head and arm throws at will...I get that it is a different sport...but when MT is Joanna's biggest and some would say only strength, it is really tough not to be swayed to Schev
 
Took some Joanna by decision +400 Valentina money line is wayyyyy too high
 
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