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I was initially on the Diego circle jerk due to the odds. But after watching tape on both fighters, I think Gall likely KO/TKO's Diego or rocks him and gets a sub. White landed some good bombs on Diego and I think Gall not only has more of a killer instinct than White, he's also a lot more slick on the ground. In the White fight Diego put himself into a lot of bad positions that White couldn't capitalize on due to his lack of grappling pedigree that I think Gall will be able to exploit.
With that said, I did bet Diego's ML at +190 before watching tape. I'm debating if I want to hedge this with a Gall ITD bet
I'm in the exact opposite camp. Prior to watching tape, I was looking to bet Gall since Diego looked dreadful even against White, looking badly hurt/stunned any time White landed anything in the stand-up or hit him with upkicks. I wouldn't be surprised if he suffered 4-5 concussions during the course of that fight, even though he won it by a lopsided margin.
But watching tape on Gall, he just doesn't justify his price-tag. Wrestling has improved since his early fights but is still decidedly average, with technical mistakes. His own takedown defense isn't good, particularly in the clinch, being taken down by Randy Brown. He is oddly poor off his back, despite his BJJ background.
And while his striking has improved, we haven't seen enough of it to think he is remotely on the level of a Craig White, nevermind Matt Brown or Al Iaquinta. The jab he showed against Sullivan still sucked.
Gall's strengths are his average wrestling and pretty good BJJ, mostly from the top. Guess what the only things Diego still does at least moderately well are? Wrestling and jits.
While I wish I had bet Diego by decision at +365, I'm also passing on any of the current prices. I need a better price on an undersized, washed-up fighter with zero chin whose wrestling/jits skills are eroding as well, if not as clearly.
There are also too many unknowns here for my liking. How much has Gall's striking improved, if at all? How much worse is Diego since his last appearance?
I would be willing to take a flier at +365, but not at +200-+250.